Zloty stays near highs, crown retreats to lows
PRAGUE, July 15 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies mostly edged higher on Monday, with Poland's zloty close to multi-year highs asmarkets assessed the weekendassassination attempt on Donald Trumpand looked forward to a European Central Bank meeting this week.
The Czech crown lagged and again retreated to a fresh three-month low, where it has sat since lower-than-expected inflation figures last week increased bets on faster interest rate cuts than previously expected.
Markets saw a muted reaction following the shooting attack on Trump, a U.S. presidential candidate and former president, on Saturday as investors considered whether it would increase his chances of an election victory, which supported riskier assets.
The zloty EURPLN= moved 0.1% higher to 4.2505 to the euro, near a four-year high on the strong side of the 4.25 level hit in May.
Bank Millennium analysts said stronger movement could come just before the ECB's rate meeting on Thursday, when policymakers were expected to hold fire before continuing with more interest rate cuts later this year.
"The beginning of this week may therefore bring about the continuation of summer stagnation, although geopolitical factors may be a potential source of volatility. In particular in the United States after the failed assassination attempt on (Donald) Trump," the bank said in a note.
"However, in our opinion, the situation on the U.S. political scene should not generate strong movements on markets."
Hungary's forint EURHUF= rose by 0.2% to 391.45 per euro, following four consecutive weekly gains amid better risk sentiment.
The crown EURCZK=, though, dropped 0.2% to 25.40 to the euro, touching a session low of 24.429, its weakest since April.
CSOB said markets would watch for central banker comments leading up to the bank's Aug. 1 policy meeting, where it may slow its rate-cutting pace, with CSOB's analysts saying comments so far since June inflation data have been on the hawkish side.
ING also said central bankers may look to counter dovish market bets.
"Every currency in the CEE region is focusing on different drivers these days," ING said. "EUR/CZK remains a rates play in our view, and central bankers' pushback of dovish bets could come into play this week."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1235 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4000 | 25.3380 | -0.24% | -2.75% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.4500 | 392.1000 | +0.17% | -2.11% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2505 | 4.2550 | +0.11% | +2.21% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9695 | 4.9710 | +0.03% | +0.10% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9200 | 117.0200 | +0.09% | +0.28% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1593.36 | 1590.4000 | +0.19% | +12.68% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72346.02 | 72253.66 | +0.13% | +19.34% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2556.92 | 2566.19 | -0.36% | +9.13% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18528.74 | 18507.05 | +0.12% | +20.54% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.8640 | 0.1300 | +105bps | +13bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7030 | -0.0230 | +124bps | -1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8980 | 0.0200 | +141bps | +2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1670 | -0.0070 | +235bps | +0bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4980 | -0.0690 | +303bps | -6bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6350 | -0.0540 | +314bps | -5bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.73 | 3.54 | 4.61 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.47 | 6.08 | 5.78 | 6.84 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.81 | 5.68 | 5.41 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices |
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague
Editing by Bernadette Baum
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