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Zloty slips as Polish inflation rises less than expected



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Zloty slips as Polish inflation rises less than expected</title></head><body>

WARSAW, July 31 (Reuters) -The zloty eased on Wednesday, as data showed inflation in Poland rising less than expected in July, though according to analysts the prospects were not higher for interest rate cuts.

Poland's CPI accelerated to 4.2% on the year in July from 2.6% a month earlier, according to Wednesday's flash estimate, mainly due to the effect of the government partially withdrawing measures aimed at keeping down energy prices.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected July inflation to rise 4.4% on the year.

Earlier this month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which aims for inflation at 2.5% with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point, kept Poland's main interest rate unchanged for a ninth month and governor Adam Glapinski said that elevated inflation spelled steady rates till 2026.

By 0950, the Polish zloty EURPLN= weakened 0.1% against the euro to 4.2950, near the lower end of its narrow range since mid-July, but remains Central Europe's best performing currency this year, gaining over 1%.

"The market might think that a lower (than expected) inflation reading brings interest rate cuts closer, but that will not be the case," Ipopema Securities analyst Marcin Sulewski said.

"Inflation in July was lower than expected, but it will rise in the coming months... As NBP governor Glapinski says, if inflation is rising, you cannot lower interest rates," Sulewski added.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.1% to 395.50 per euro. It continued to slip after the worse-than-expected economic output reading on Tuesday, according to a Budapest-based currency trader.

Weak foreign demand held back Hungary's economy in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling on a quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year.

The Hungarian currency is the region's weakest performer this year, shedding 3% against the euro.

The Czech crown EURCZK= which has also lost 3% to the euro this year, eased 0.1% to 25.4460 per euro on Wednesday in the run-up to Thursday's expected interest rate cut by the Czech National Bank (CNB).

The CNB is widely expected to slow the pace of easing on Thursday, with all analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a 25-basis point cut, as it opts for caution with inflation risks still in view and the crown weaker than expected.

"While market analysts are unanimously expecting reduction in the pace of rate cuts to 25bp per step, the market may still see some risk that the Czech central bank could repeat a rate cut by 50bp," chief economist at Generali Investments CEE Radomir Jac said.

"Weakening of the Czech crown, seen in the past weeks, was to a large extent related to a sharper than expected rate cut delivered by the CNB at the end of June."

Last month, the CNB cut its key rate by 50 basis points, on the sharper end of expectations, but signalled a likely slowdown in the pace of easing amid lingering inflation pressures.

Jac added that today's weakening of the crown was in line with that of its regional peers.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1151 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.4460

25.4310

-0.06%

-2.93%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

395.5000

395.2700

-0.06%

-3.11%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2950

4.2910

-0.09%

+1.15%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9753

4.9763

+0.02%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9800

117.0800

+0.09%

+0.23%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1608.76

1598.7400

+0.63%

+13.77%

Budapest

.BUX

73855.86

73475.88

+0.52%

+21.83%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2419.55

2384.77

+1.46%

+3.27%

Bucharest

.BETI

18623.41

18534.75

+0.48%

+21.16%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5560

0.0020

+102bps

+2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5420

-0.0390

+129bps

-3bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.7200

0.0070

+139bps

+2bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9990

-0.0080

+246bps

+1bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.3220

-0.1140

+307bps

-10bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.5160

-0.0610

+319bps

-5bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.00

3.63

3.30

4.53

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.12

5.76

5.36

6.56

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.80

5.66

5.31

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************




Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Bernadette Baum

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