US natgas rises to three-week high on warmer weather, higher demand view
Aug 13 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed more 1% to a three-week high on Tuesday, helped by forecasts for hotter weather and higher gas demand for next week than previously projected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.4 cents, or about 1.6%, to $2.22 per million British thermal units, at 10:13 a.m. EDT (1413 GMT).
"The weather plays a big role in natural gas, short-term and long-term. And the weather has been a little on the warm side in most parts of the country," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 233 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher from 228 CDDs estimated on Monday. The normal for this time of year is 187 CDDs.
With hotter than usual weather on the horizon, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise from 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 108.3 bcfd next week.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
"I think the market right now is wrestling with a high level of inventory, which is on the bearish side. But the injections going into storage are on the low side, which is a little bit on the bullish side," Thomas Saal
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 21 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 2. That was lower than the 26-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 25 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 38 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
Dutch and British gas prices fell on Tuesday morning, reversing the previous day's gains as gas flows from Russia to Europe via Ukraine remained stable despite reports of possible damage to infrastructure.NG/EU
Week ended Aug 9 forecasts | Week ended Aug 2 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +19 | +21 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,289 | 3,270 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 13.8% | 14.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.91 | 13.48 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.63 | 12.55 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 7 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 233 | 228 | 213 | 193 | 187 |
U.S. GFS TDDs- | 240 | 236 | 214 | 195 | 190 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.1 | 101.8 | 102.1 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.0 | 109.3 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 50.8 | 47.0 | 49.3 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 88.3 | 84.5 | 87.1 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 110.0 | 105.7 | 108.3 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 16 | Week ended Aug 9 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 45 | 47 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.10 | 1.94 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.46 | 1.55 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.78 | 2.82 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.41 | 1.32 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.80 | 1.80 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.60 | 1.54 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.04 | 1.92 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.30 | -4.76 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.74 | 0.78 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 30.75 | 31.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 36.00 | 31.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 26.50 | 27.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 30.25 | 32.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 29.50 | 34.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 30.50 | 33.75 |
Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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