US forecasts record soy crop after farmers ditch corn
By Heather Schlitz
Aug 14 (Reuters) -The U.S. government increased its soybean forecast to a record high this week as farmers switched acres from higher-cost corn in a year when farm incomes are expected to plunge.
Flooding that prevented corn planting in some areas and a swift winter-wheat harvest that enabled some farmers to plant a second crop of soybeans are other factors behind the bigger-than expected forecast, farmers and analysts said.
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for the 2024/25 soybean crop to a record 4.589 billion bushels from 4.469 previously.
The revised forecast from the world's second-biggest soybean producer heightened expectations for a big global supply of the oilseed, used to make biofuels and livestock feed. Large corn and soy crops globally, as well as feeble demand from exporters and domestic processors, have driven prices to near four-year lows.
USDA increased its estimate of how much soy will be left over in the U.S. by autumn 2025, after export and domestic needs are covered, by a whopping 29% from last month to 560 million bushels.
Planting corn requires farmers to apply nitrogen and other costly fertilizers, which farmers said would not allow them to make a profit given low corn prices.
"You're thinking, 'what am I going to lose less money on,' and soybeans were that option," Cordt Holub, a corn and soy farmer in east-central Iowa, said. "When you're planting corn, it's a lot higher management and more steps that have to take place. With soy, you can basically just go and slap some soybeans into the ground and watch them grow."
In parts of the Midwest, widespread flooding delayed spring planting long enough that some farmers opted to plant soy, which can be planted later than corn.
USDA raised its estimate for acres planted with soybeans and cut its corn-planting estimate, though in some states with extreme flooding, such as South Dakota, soybean acreage expanded by much more than it did nationally.
Chris Gibbs, a corn and soy farmer in western Ohio, decreased his corn acreage by 20% from what he initially planned and planted more soybeans instead due to the lower fertilizer costs and greater chance of profitability.
"I calculated that I had a better chance of making money by growing soy rather than corn," Gibbs said. "There's been little opportunity to make a profit this year."
In some Midwest and Plains states, a speedy winter-wheat harvest allowed some farmers time to plant soybeans for a second crop.
"When times are tough, you see if you can grow two crops in one year," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.
Reporting by Heather Schlitz; Editing by Rod Nickel
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