The Fed has spoken. It's payrolls turn next
Main U.S. indexes red; Nasdaq hit hardest, down >2%
Real Est leads S&P sector gainers; Tech weakest group
Dollar up; gold slips; crude off ~1%; bitcoin off ~3%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~3.98%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THE FED HAS SPOKEN. IT'S PAYROLLS TURN NEXT
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had told reporters late Wednesday that "a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting" if the data on inflation and the jobs market keeps coming in as expected.
No doubt those comments will inform investor reactions to the July payrolls report, due out before market open on Friday.
Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius outlined their expectations for the hotly anticipated report.
Hatzius and co see July non-farm payrolls growth of 165,000, below consensus expectations for 175,000. The prior month came in at 206,000, according to LSEG data.
And they estimate that private payrolls increased in July by 125,000 vs consensus expectations for 148,000.
"While an influx of labor supply at the start of summer typically leads to an acceleration in seasonally-adjusted job growth when the labor market is tight, alternative measures of job growth indicate a pace of job creation below the recent payrolls trend," according to the report which also involved Goldman's Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels.
The economists' estimates assume a 15,000 drag from Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in Texas on July 8 causing power outages and temporary business closures.
Goldman's estimate for the unemployment rate is in line with consensus at 4.1% reflecting an expectation for higher household employment and a flat participation rate of 62.6%. But the economists note risks to the estimate.
"While continued, albeit slowing, above-trend immigration could apply further upward pressure on the unemployment rate, catch-up of household employment toward nonfarm payrolls after a period of underperformance (even after adjusting for the household survey’s undercounting of immigration) would argue for downward pressure," according to Goldman.
They estimate an average hourly earnings increase of 0.3% month-over-month, which would cut the year-over-year rate by two tenths to 3.7%, in line with consensus and steady with June.
While July's calendar make up should weigh on hourly earnings, "the impact of Hurricane Beryl could boost them, as reported hours typically fall more sharply than earnings during severe weather events," the economists said.
(Sinéad Carew)
*****
FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
U.S. STOCKS TURN SHARPLY NEGATIVE AFTER WEAK DATA - CLICK HERE
CHIPS TANK AS ARM THROWS WRENCH INTO AI RALLY - CLICK HERE
UH-OH, IT'S AUGUST, BUT THERE MAY BE A CATCH THIS YEAR - CLICK HERE
NASDAQ GAINS WITH HELP FROM FED, SOME EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD: BREAK IN THE CLOUD - CLICK HERE
ENERGY EQUIPMENT: YOUR NEXT BEST ENERGY TRANSITION PLAY? - CLICK HERE
POSITIONING ONLY "A BIT" CLEANER AFTER JULY WOBBLE - CLICK HERE
STOXX FALLS AS BANKS, AUTOS DRAG - CLICK HERE
MARKETS BET ON BENEFICENT BOE - CLICK HERE
MARKETS BRACE FOR BOE CUT, BARRAGE OF EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
Activos relacionados
Últimas noticias
Descargo de responsabilidades: Cada una de las entidades de XM Group proporciona un servicio de solo ejecución y acceso a nuestra plataforma de trading online, permitiendo a una persona ver o usar el contenido disponible en o a través del sitio web, sin intención de cambiarlo ni ampliarlo. Dicho acceso y uso están sujetos en todo momento a: (i) Términos y Condiciones; (ii) Advertencias de riesgo; y (iii) Descargo completo de responsabilidades. Por lo tanto, dicho contenido se proporciona exclusivamente como información general. En particular, por favor tenga en cuenta que, los contenidos de nuestra plataforma de trading online no son ni solicitud ni una oferta para entrar a realizar transacciones en los mercados financieros. Operar en cualquier mercado financiero implica un nivel de riesgo significativo para su capital.
Todo el material publicado en nuestra plataforma de trading online tiene únicamente fines educativos/informativos y no contiene –y no debe considerarse que contenga– asesoramiento ni recomendaciones financieras, tributarias o de inversión, ni un registro de nuestros precios de trading, ni una oferta ni solicitud de transacción con instrumentos financieros ni promociones financieras no solicitadas.
Cualquier contenido de terceros, así como el contenido preparado por XM, como por ejemplo opiniones, noticias, investigaciones, análisis, precios, otras informaciones o enlaces a sitios de terceros que figuran en este sitio web se proporcionan “tal cual”, como comentarios generales del mercado y no constituyen un asesoramiento en materia de inversión. En la medida en que cualquier contenido se interprete como investigación de inversión, usted debe tener en cuenta y aceptar que dicho contenido no fue concebido ni elaborado de acuerdo con los requisitos legales diseñados para promover la independencia en materia de investigación de inversiones y, por tanto, se considera como una comunicación comercial en virtud de las leyes y regulaciones pertinentes. Por favor, asegúrese de haber leído y comprendido nuestro Aviso sobre investigación de inversión no independiente y advertencia de riesgo en relación con la información anterior, al que se puede acceder aquí.
