Forint eases as Hungarian rate setters cut further
Updates with latest figures
WARSAW, July 23 (Reuters) -The forint eased on Tuesday, backing further away from a 1-1/2 month high as the Hungarian central bank lowered rates extended a long-running rate easing cycle.
Hungary's central bank cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% on Tuesday, as expected by a slim majority of economists who had projected little room for further easing in the second half of 2024 after steep cuts over the past 15 months.
Hungary's Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said after the decision that market expectations of one or two more rate cuts this year were realistic, and added that upcoming decisions would be about no change or a small rate reduction.
The forint EURHUF= had slipped 0.4% against the euro to 391 by 1335 GMT, as it retreated from its strongest since early June which it had hit on Monday.
Analysts had been split on whether Hungary's central bank might already pause its cutting cycle.
But data showed Hungary's headline inflation easing more than expected in June to an annual 3.7%, after its two-month rebound, as price growth subsides from its early 2023 peak of 25.7%, the highest rate in any EU country.
In the Czech Republic, the crown EURCZK= retreated 0.5% to 25.39 per euro, as Czech central bank (CNB) Vice-Governor Jan Frait said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency that he could not rule out another 50-basis-point interest rate cut when policymakers meet next week.
The CNB has cut its main two-week repo rate by 225 basis points since December to 4.75%, surprising some at the last meeting in June by delivering a fourth straight 50-bp reduction before signalling a likely slowdown in the pace of easing.
Below-forecast inflation there, however, has left open some bets the bank may still to its current easing pace.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= held steady at 4.2815 per euro.
Data on Monday showed Polish retail sales growing by less than expected in June, as consumers remained cautious about the cost of living even with wages rising strongly.
Poland is betting on a wage growth-driven consumer revival to underpin its economic recovery in 2024.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1535 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3900 | 25.2525 | -0.54% | -2.71% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.0000 | 389.3250 | -0.43% | -2.00% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2815 | 4.2804 | -0.03% | +1.47% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9727 | 4.9715 | -0.02% | +0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0500 | +0.09% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1616.80 | 1615.2600 | +0.10% | +14.34% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73654.44 | 73375.88 | +0.38% | +21.50% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2438.16 | 2481.28 | -1.74% | +4.06% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18727.02 | 18588.28 | +0.75% | +21.83% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.6130 | -0.0360 | +083bps | +1bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6430 | -0.0410 | +123bps | +0bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7920 | -0.0410 | +134bps | -1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1180 | 0.0360 | +234bps | +8bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5060 | -0.0240 | +309bps | +2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6430 | -0.0230 | +319bps | +1bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.73 | 3.54 | 4.58 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.77 | 6.45 | 6.11 | 6.77 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.83 | 5.71 | 5.40 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Angus MacSwan
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