Dollar in holding pattern ahead of FOMC minutes, Powell comments
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, Aug 19 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was struggling to make headway against its peers on Monday, though it traded in a tight range as investors awaited fresh catalysts this week that could offer clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting and a speech from Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole are likely to be the main drivers of currency movement this week, which will also see inflation data from Canada and Japan alongside Purchasing Managers' Index readings across the U.S., euro zone and UK.
The euro EUR=EBS last bought $1.1026 while sterling GBP=D3 rose to a one-month high of $1.2950 in an otherwise muted start to the Asian trading session, as bets for an imminent start to the Fed's easing cycle pressured the dollar.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback fell 0.06% to 102.40 =USD.
Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with a 24.5% chance of a 50 bp move. Futures point to over 90 bps worth of easing by year-end. FEDWATCH
"Markets will be laser focused to what Powell has to say at the end of this week, and on that, I think it will be a great opportunity for Powell to either endorse or push back market pricing," said currency strategist Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).
"I think he'll at least greenlight a rate cut at the September meeting. If anything, I think he'll try to retain optionality because we do have some more data before the next meeting."
Financial markets had a turbulent start to August after a slew of softer-than-expected U.S. economic data - in particular, a weak jobs report for July triggered severe volatility as investors feared the world's largest economy was headed for a recession and that the Fed was being slow in easing rates.
With those worries now moderating, traditional safehaven assets such as the yen JPY=EBS - which received a boost from a flight to safety - have given up some of their early August gains.
The Japanese currency was last 0.2% lower at 147.93 a dollar, having fallen some 4% from a seven-month high at the start of the month.
Japanese investment data on Friday confirmed that after a bout of turmoil, investors were back to betting on the Bank of Japan going slow on rate rises and on the yen staying cheap.
"Given financial markets have calmed down and volatility has eased, I think it is possible that dollar/yen can recover more, perhaps to 150, as volatility continues to move back lower," said CBA's Kong.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 rose 0.16% to $0.6062, while the Australian dollar AUD=D3 hit a one-month high of $0.66865.
The Aussie has been drawing support from a still-hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia after Governor Michele Bullock on Friday said it was premature to be thinking about rate cuts.
Her comments came just days after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first rate cut in over four years.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing
Activos relacionados
Últimas noticias
Descargo de responsabilidades: Cada una de las entidades de XM Group proporciona un servicio de solo ejecución y acceso a nuestra plataforma de trading online, permitiendo a una persona ver o usar el contenido disponible en o a través del sitio web, sin intención de cambiarlo ni ampliarlo. Dicho acceso y uso están sujetos en todo momento a: (i) Términos y Condiciones; (ii) Advertencias de riesgo; y (iii) Descargo completo de responsabilidades. Por lo tanto, dicho contenido se proporciona exclusivamente como información general. En particular, por favor tenga en cuenta que, los contenidos de nuestra plataforma de trading online no son ni solicitud ni una oferta para entrar a realizar transacciones en los mercados financieros. Operar en cualquier mercado financiero implica un nivel de riesgo significativo para su capital.
Todo el material publicado en nuestra plataforma de trading online tiene únicamente fines educativos/informativos y no contiene –y no debe considerarse que contenga– asesoramiento ni recomendaciones financieras, tributarias o de inversión, ni un registro de nuestros precios de trading, ni una oferta ni solicitud de transacción con instrumentos financieros ni promociones financieras no solicitadas.
Cualquier contenido de terceros, así como el contenido preparado por XM, como por ejemplo opiniones, noticias, investigaciones, análisis, precios, otras informaciones o enlaces a sitios de terceros que figuran en este sitio web se proporcionan “tal cual”, como comentarios generales del mercado y no constituyen un asesoramiento en materia de inversión. En la medida en que cualquier contenido se interprete como investigación de inversión, usted debe tener en cuenta y aceptar que dicho contenido no fue concebido ni elaborado de acuerdo con los requisitos legales diseñados para promover la independencia en materia de investigación de inversiones y, por tanto, se considera como una comunicación comercial en virtud de las leyes y regulaciones pertinentes. Por favor, asegúrese de haber leído y comprendido nuestro Aviso sobre investigación de inversión no independiente y advertencia de riesgo en relación con la información anterior, al que se puede acceder aquí.