XM no presta servicios a los residentes de Estados Unidos de América.

Czech crown weakens on expectations of smaller rate cut



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Czech crown weakens on expectations of smaller rate cut</title></head><body>

By Boldizsar Gyori

BUDAPEST, June 27 (Reuters) -The Czech crown weakened ahead of a rate decision by policymakers on Thursday, with the forint and zloty slightly firming in range-bound trading.

The Czech National Bank is likely to slow its interest rate-cutting drive when it convenes later in the day, with markets betting the central bank will opt for a smaller cut following three straight 50-basis-point reductions.

The decision is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. (1230 GMT), with the governor delivering his comments at 3:45 p.m.

The majority of respondents expect the pace of rate cuts to slow to 25 bps, a Reuters poll showed, to a policy rate CZCBIR=ECI of 5%, forecasting the repo rate at 4% by the end of the year.

The crown EURCZK= weakened by 0.19% to 24.945 to the euro at 0802 GMT, hovering around the six-week low it touched briefly late last week.

"In our view, the weaker koruna exchange rate since mid-June now acts as the swing factor in favour of a smaller cut," Commerzbank wrote in a note.

"There were several remarks and signals ... which suggested that both 25bp and 50bp rate cut options will be at play during the meeting, but on balance, the 25bp outcome has emerged as the favourite."

Czech inflation has fallen below 3% and is in the bank's tolerance band around its 2% target, after hitting double-digit rates in 2022-2023.

But double-digit wage rises outpacing average growth rates in the European Union have raised alarm among central Europe's monetary policymakers wary of a rebound in inflation as the region's economic recovery gains traction.

"Slowing core inflation speaks in favour of a more rapid cut. However ... a high and stable rate of growth in prices of services, is an argument for greater caution. Above-average wage growth is another inflationary risk," J&T Bank said.

Elsewhere in the region the Polish zloty EURPLN= traded at 4.31, firming 0.1%, but remaining in a range.

"We assume EURPLN will remain in the 4.25-4.35 range in the coming weeks, and we think the zloty may stay closer to the weaker end of this range in case of prolonged dollar strength and uncertainty around the French elections," Santander Bank Polska said in a note.

The forint EURHUF= traded at 396, up by 0.15%.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1002 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9450

24.8980

-0.19%

-0.98%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

396.0000

396.6000

+0.15%

-3.24%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3090

4.3135

+0.10%

+0.82%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9775

+0.00%

-0.06%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0100

117.0300

+0.02%

+0.20%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1530.37

1539.9100

-0.62%

+8.23%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

71146.48

71013.43

+0.19%

+17.36%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2543.31

2541.43

+0.07%

+8.55%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18023.70

18279.10

-1.40%

+17.26%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.1200

-0.0010

+128bps

-2bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.0930

0.0060

+162bps

-2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1990

0.0080

+172bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.1900

0.0110

+235bps

-1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5950

0.0110

+312bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8060

0.0310

+333bps

+1bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.49

4.21

4.01

4.98


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

7.15

6.88

6.62

6.89


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.78

5.61

5.31

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************




Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; additional reporting by Badohal Karol in Warsaw and Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by Anil D'Silva

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
</body></html>

Descargo de responsabilidades: Cada una de las entidades de XM Group proporciona un servicio de solo ejecución y acceso a nuestra plataforma de trading online, permitiendo a una persona ver o usar el contenido disponible en o a través del sitio web, sin intención de cambiarlo ni ampliarlo. Dicho acceso y uso están sujetos en todo momento a: (i) Términos y Condiciones; (ii) Advertencias de riesgo; y (iii) Descargo completo de responsabilidades. Por lo tanto, dicho contenido se proporciona exclusivamente como información general. En particular, por favor tenga en cuenta que, los contenidos de nuestra plataforma de trading online no son ni solicitud ni una oferta para entrar a realizar transacciones en los mercados financieros. Operar en cualquier mercado financiero implica un nivel de riesgo significativo para su capital.

Todo el material publicado en nuestra plataforma de trading online tiene únicamente fines educativos/informativos y no contiene –y no debe considerarse que contenga– asesoramiento ni recomendaciones financieras, tributarias o de inversión, ni un registro de nuestros precios de trading, ni una oferta ni solicitud de transacción con instrumentos financieros ni promociones financieras no solicitadas.

Cualquier contenido de terceros, así como el contenido preparado por XM, como por ejemplo opiniones, noticias, investigaciones, análisis, precios, otras informaciones o enlaces a sitios de terceros que figuran en este sitio web se proporcionan “tal cual”, como comentarios generales del mercado y no constituyen un asesoramiento en materia de inversión. En la medida en que cualquier contenido se interprete como investigación de inversión, usted debe tener en cuenta y aceptar que dicho contenido no fue concebido ni elaborado de acuerdo con los requisitos legales diseñados para promover la independencia en materia de investigación de inversiones y, por tanto, se considera como una comunicación comercial en virtud de las leyes y regulaciones pertinentes. Por favor, asegúrese de haber leído y comprendido nuestro Aviso sobre investigación de inversión no independiente y advertencia de riesgo en relación con la información anterior, al que se puede acceder aquí.

Advertencia de riesgo: Su capital está en riesgo. Los productos apalancados pueden no ser adecuados para todos. Por favor, tenga en cuenta nuestra Declaración de riesgos.