Crown at multi-week high as focus turns to Czech rate-cut path
PRAGUE, April 26 (Reuters) -The crown firmed on Friday to reach levels last seen when the Czech central bank stepped up its rate-cutting campaign in early February, while central European currencies coasted to end the week.
The crown is on course to take a multi-week high into a central bank policy meeting next week, at which markets are expecting policymakers most likely to maintain a pace of interest rate cuts by 50 basis points.
Market rates, though, have ticked up in recent weeks, reflecting bets of more gradual rate cuts ahead, as seen also in expectations for bigger global central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The crown EURCZK= edged up 0.1% to 25.140 to the euro on Friday. The Czech currency had fallen to two-year lows of more than 25.50 per euro in February after Prague's central bank lifted its easing pace to the current 50-basis-point level, but has slowly regained ground since then.
One trader said the rebound in recent weeks has been helped by some long-euro positions being reduced, along with improvements in the global mood and, more lately, some reduced bets on the scope of rate cuts ahead.
"We are expecting more cautious trading with the approaching central bank meeting (next week)," analysts at bank CSOB said in a note.
Governor Ales Michl said earlier this week that the central bank might cut rates again when it convenes on May 2 but that it would approach further easing "very cautiously" after that.
Czech headline inflation has returned to the 2% target, but policymakers are wary of re-fuelling price growth amid a backdrop of a strengthening economic recovery and fast rises in service sector prices.
Expectations of a more gradual path of cuts in the United States is also boosting the dollar, and in turn weighing on the crown, along with other central European currencies.
On Friday, Hungary's forint EURHUF= and Poland's zloty EURPLN= were steady.
The zloty traded at 4.3235 to the euro. It had touched four-year highs around 4.25 earlier this month, and some analysts see an attack again at the 4.30 level.
"We see a good chance of returning below 4.30 in May," ING said.
"The calming down of the geopolitical situation at least for now should allow investors to focus on the macroeconomic situation, which remains positive for the zloty."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1054 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1400 | 25.1730 | +0.13% | -1.74% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.9000 | 392.9000 | +0.00% | -2.47% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3235 | 4.3220 | -0.03% | +0.49% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9770 | 4.9763 | -0.01% | -0.05% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1547.20 | 1547.5400 | -0.02% | +9.42% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 66593.03 | 66115.42 | +0.72% | +9.85% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2476.82 | 2432.32 | +1.83% | +5.71% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 16988.11 | 16919.27 | +0.41% | +10.52% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 4.1790 | -0.0510 | +117bps | -5bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.2710 | -0.0380 | +166bps | -3bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.4030 | -0.0340 | +180bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.4000 | 0.0080 | +239bps | +1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.6360 | -0.0160 | +302bps | +0bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8000 | -0.0150 | +320bps | +0bps |
************************************************************** | ||||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; editing by Mark Heinrich
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