US natgas rises more than 4% on hotter weather forecasts, lower output

Reuters

US natgas rises more than 4% on hotter weather forecasts, lower output

14. Aug. 2024 um 2:11 nachm. GMT

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By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Aug 14 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 4% on Wednesday, supported by a drop in output and forecasts of hotter weather for the second half of August that could boost cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators to meet air conditioning needs.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10 cents, or about 4.7%, to $2.25 per million British thermal units, at 9:58 a.m. EDT (1358 GMT).

"We've had some moderation of weather models that have seemed to have reversed. We're starting to add some cooling degree days to the second half of August. So, that's been a bit of a help," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 224 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower than the 233 CDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise from 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 107.5 bcfd next week.

"All data vendors are showing that there has been decline over the past week in production and that has certainly tightened balances for the short term, which will mean that there's less gas going into the ground during this injection season, and that has helped to create a little bit of upside," DiDona said.

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 has fallen to an average of 102.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

While the steady narrowing in the gas surplus will not cause a spike in prices independently on any given day or week, it will provide a bullish backdrop capable of accentuating price response to any unexpected supply disruptions or one more round of broad-based heat before this summer ends, energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Elsewhere, intense fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near a pipeline Russia uses to supply European countries with gas has not disrupted supplies, network operators and gas companies said on Tuesday.

Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were little changed on Wednesday morning amid flat demand and steady flows.NG/EU

	Week ended Aug 9 forecasts	Week ended Aug 2 Actual	Year ago Aug 2	Five-year average Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+19	+21	+25	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,289	3,270	2,022	2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	13.8%	14.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.18	2.23	2.65	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	12.70	12.91	11.21	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.66	12.63	12.43	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	6	7	1	2	3
U.S. GFS CDDs	224	233	214	192	186
U.S. GFS TDDs-	230	240	215	194	189

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	103.1	101.8	102.1	102.3	96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	7.6	7.5	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	111.0	109.3	109.6	N/A	103.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.6	1.6	1.6	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.0	7.1	7.1	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	12.9	12.7	12.6	12.6	7.7
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.5
U.S. Residential	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.5	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	50.7	47.0	48.4	48.3	43.0
U.S. Industrial	21.9	21.8	21.9	21.3	21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.1	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	88.3	84.5	86.1	84.8	80.0
Total U.S. Demand	109.9	105.9	107.5	N/A	96.1

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	Current Day % of Normal Forecast	Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual	2021 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	74	74	83	107	81
Jan-Jul	76	76	77	102	79
Oct-Sep	77	78	76	103	81


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 16	Week ended Aug 9	2023	2022	2021
Wind	8	6	10	11	10
Solar	6	5	4	3	3
Hydro	6	5	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	47	41	38	37
Coal	17	18	17	21	23
Nuclear	18	17	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.16	2.10
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.61	1.46
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.83	2.78
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.49	1.41
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	1.77	1.80
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.66	1.60
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	1.93	2.04
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.30	-1.30
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.71	0.74

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL	37.50	30.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL	38.00	36.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL	29.50	26.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL	35.50	30.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL	32.25	29.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL	31.50	30.50

Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese; editing by Jonathan Oatis

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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