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Novinky

FX options wrap - Risk premium, USD direction, EUR/USD targets

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Risk premium, USD direction, EUR/USD targets Overnight expiry FX option implied volatility in the higher beta USD pairings was trading its biggest pre-U.S. CPI premium this year. However, Wednesday's data was basically in line with expectations and didn't prompt the excessive volatility for which options were primed. Broader FX option implied volatility has eased as the CPI risk premium was priced out and as always, is more evident in sub-one-month expiry contracts.
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Dollar sags after benign US inflation data; kiwi skids on rate cut

FOREX-Dollar sags after benign US inflation data; kiwi skids on rate cut Updates prices as of 0315 GMT By Kevin Buckland TOKYO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The dollar remained on the back foot on Wednesday after tumbling versus major peers overnight as a benign reading for U.S. producer prices reinforced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
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RBNZ risks lean in favour of a pause

BUZZ-COMMENT-RBNZ risks lean in favour of a pause Aug 13 (Reuters) - The RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the more exciting of recent times. The market is currently pricing a 75% chance of a 25bps rate cut, in contrast to the 61% of economists polled by Reuters who expect the official cash rate to be left unchanged at 5.5%.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Repeats with no changes Aug 9 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for the week ahead. EUR/USD strikes expire on Monday at 1.0900 on 1.3 billion euros ($1.42 billion) and Tuesday at 1.0865-75 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0900 on 1.7 billion euros.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Repeats with no changes Aug 9 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for the week ahead. EUR/USD strikes expire on Monday at 1.0900 on 1.3 billion euros ($1.42 billion) and Tuesday at 1.0865-75 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0900 on 1.7 billion euros.
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FX options wrap - Adjusting for calm before possible data storm

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Adjusting for calm before possible data storm There have been some significant changes in FX option premiums over recent sessions amid the strong shifts in risk appetite and unwinding of carry trades. Implied volatility spiked to new longer-term highs across the board on Monday and despite the subsequent setbacks, it remains above prior levels.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Aug 9 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for Friday Aug. 9 , and for the week ahead. EUR/USD strikes expire on Monday at 1.0900 on 1.3 billion euros ($1.42 billion) and Tuesday at 1.0865-75 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0900 on 1.7 billion euros.
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Australia dlr climbs on kiwi as market bays for NZ rate cut

Australia dlr climbs on kiwi as market bays for NZ rate cut By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped on its New Zealand rival on Thursday as investors ramped up bets for a kiwi rate cut as soon as next week, while pushing out the timing for an easing at home. New Zealand rate markets rallied sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reported its survey of inflation expectations had seen the two-year outlook sink to 2.03% for the September quarter, from 2.33
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FX options wrap - Many reactions to shifting FX drivers

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Many reactions to shifting FX drivers Shifting interest rates/expectations are a key driver of FX and volatility and there's certainly been some related movements this week. Weaker than forecast Australian CPI removed any RBA hike probability and put more pressure on AUD. That lifted related implied volatility, with 1-month AUD/USD posting a new recent high at 9.1 before supply returned it to 8.7 as AUD/USD recovered from its lows.
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Australia, NZ dollars off the floor, bonds build big rally

Australia, NZ dollars off the floor, bonds build big rally By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars steadied above recent lows on Thursday as a sharp fall in U.S. yields sparked a round of short-covering in the beaten-down currencies, while bonds extended gains on hopes of early rate cuts. The Aussie held at $0.6540 AUD=D3 , having bounced from a three-month low of $0.6480 overnight.
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FX options wrap - JPY explosion, GBP hedges, Fed preview

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY explosion, GBP hedges, Fed preview JPY related options exploded higher with JPY in the wake of Wednesday's BoJ tightening. Gamma demand at the fore with 1-week USD/JPY implied volatility reaching 16.25 and 1-month 11.5 - new highs since April 29. Subsequent setbacks were limited in anticipation of the eventual 150.00 barrier break that was being hedged since last week .
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FX options wrap - BoJ fear gauge, AUD setback risk, FX hedging

BUZZ-FX options wrap - BoJ fear gauge, AUD setback risk, FX hedging Uncertainty surrounding Wednesday's Bank of Japan policy announcement has increased related FX volatility risk premiums, with overnight expiry options trading at year-to-date highs . Overnight-expiry JPY-related implied volatility is trading at its highest levels since the Dec. 19 BoJ announcment and reflects the additional realised FX volatility this event is expected to generate .
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AUD bulls and FX options alert for key Australian Q2 CPI

BUZZ-COMMENT-AUD bulls and FX options alert for key Australian Q2 CPI July 30 (Reuters) - Wednesday's Australian Q2 CPI data could boost the Australian dollar, even if it fails to beat expectations, but higher premiums for overnight-expiry AUD-related FX options aren't taking that for granted . Expectations for an Australian rate hike next week will increase from the current 25% probability being priced by futures markets if CPI beats expectations, and that would lift the AUD.
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FX options wrap - Priming for event-driven FX volatility

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Priming for event-driven FX volatility Major events this week include central bank decisions from Japan, the U.S. and the UK; euro zone inflation on Wednesday and monthly U.S. jobs on Friday, which all have the ability to increase FX volatility. There's been a higher implied volatility risk premium for options that expire after these events, with overnight options set to include the EZ inflation and Bank of Japan from Tuesday.
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The critical importance of FX option strike expiries

REFILE-BUZZ-COMMENT-The critical importance of FX option strike expiries inserts graphic July 29 (Reuters) - While it's not an exact science, larger impending FX option strikes can often have an effect on the FX spot market as their expiries draw closer. Here's why. While there are many types of traders and investors influencing the FX markets, perhaps the most important when it comes to options are the many institutions that supply and manage liquidity.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Repeats with no changes July 25 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0700-05 on 1.4 billion euros, 1.0800 on 610 million euros, 1.0825-35 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0885-1.0900 on 1.6 billion euros.
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FX options wrap - PCE risk, JPY 150, BoE Bets, euro low

BUZZ-FX options wrap - PCE risk, JPY 150, BoE Bets, euro low A busier week for FX with the closing of short JPY positions being the main driver before next week's central bank meetings . However, JPY demand and broader FX option implied volatility has peaked for now. U.S. PCE inflation data can offer more clues on next week's U.S. policy decision and the U.S.
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Technically, there could be value in the Aussie

BUZZ-COMMENT-Technically, there could be value in the Aussie July 26 (Reuters) - Looking for a turn in trends can be a dangerous game but recent price action in the Australian dollar suggests there might be scope for a direction change. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, falling sharply since July 12, could, at the least, be about to correct higher. False support breaks and the formation of potential trend reversal signals on the daily chart suggest there might be value in the Aussie at current levels.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead July 25 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for Friday, July 26 , and for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0700-05 on 1.4 billion euros, 1.0800 on 610 million euros, 1.0825-35 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0885-1.0900 on 1.6 billion euros.
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FX options wrap - JPY and CNH surge, central banks on radar

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY and CNH surge, central banks on radar The big movers in FX and options on Thursday are JPY and CNH, with risk aversion and the unwinding of large short positions the main drivers. USD/JPY extended its recent decline to test below 152.00, which saw 1-month implied volatility trade new highs since early May at 10.75 and remain firm amid the rebound to 154.00 after US GDP data.
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