US natural gas prices fall 3% on forecasts for less demand, ample stockpiles
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 4 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3%on Wednesday on bearish forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected.
Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year is the oversupply of fuel left in storage after a mild winter.
There was still about 12% more gas in storage than normal, even though injections have been smaller than usual in 15 of the last 16 weeks after low prices early in the year prompted several producers to cut output. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.8 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.145 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest price since Aug. 19.
The market has seen a drop in output so far this month and forecasts for warmer weather next week than previously expected, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to fall to an all-time low and average in negative territory for a record 33rd time this year.
Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.
In the Atlantic basin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there was a 30% chance that atropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could strengthen into a cyclone as it move into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slidto an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.8 bcfd over the last four days to a preliminary 12-week low of 101.1 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary data was often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 9 before turning warmer than normal in the Sept 10-19 period. Energy traders, however, noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would only average around 75 degrees F (23.9 degrees Celsius), down from an average of 79 F (26.1 C) in mid-August.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 102.3 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant's history and notices to customers.
Week ended Aug 30 Forecast | Week ended Aug 23 Actual | Year ago Aug 30 | Five-year average Aug 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +27 | +35 | +33 | +51 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,361 | 3,334 | 3,139 | 3,024 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 11.1% | 12.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.22 | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.85 | 11.97 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.83 | 14.09 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 10 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 24 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 160 | 152 | 171 | 152 | 131 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 170 | 162 | 180 | 168 | 155 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.2 | 102.7 | 102.8 | 104.1 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.6 | 110.8 | 110.5 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 46.6 | 42.8 | 41.2 | 42.5 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.2 | 80.1 | 79.2 | 79.5 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.7 | 102.3 | 101.3 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 6 | Week ended Aug 30 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 47 | 47 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.01 | 1.93 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.48 | 1.45 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.66 | 2.28 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.43 | 1.37 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.67 | 1.62 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.92 | 1.50 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.08 | 1.66 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.66 | 0.67 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.58 | .42 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 34.75 | 34.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 26.25 | 33.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 24.00 | 27.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 93.50 | 47.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 83.00 | 28.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 28.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Barbara Lewis and Paul Simao
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
Související aktiva
Poslední novinky
Zřeknutí se odpovědnosti: Subjekty skupiny XM Group poskytují služby a přístup do naší online obchodní platformy v režimu „execution-only”, což osobám umožní prohlížet a/nebo použít obsah, dostupný zde nebo prostřednictvím webové stránky, který není určený ke změně nebo šíření. Na takový přístup a použití se vždy vztahují: (i) Všeobecné obchodní podmínky; (ii) Upozornění na rizika; a (iii) Úplné zřeknutí se odpovědnosti. Takový obsah je proto poskytovaný pouze jako obecné informace. Mějte především na paměti, že obsah naší online obchodní platformy není ani žádostí, ani nabídkou vstupu do jakýchkoliv transakcí na finančních trzích. Obchodování na jakémkoliv finančním trhu zahrnuje významnou úroveň rizika pro váš kapitál.
Veškerý materiál, zveřejněný na naší online obchodní platformě, je určený pouze pro vzdělávací/informační účely a neobsahuje ani by neměl být považovaný za finanční, investiční, daňové nebo obchodní rady a doporučení, ani záznamy o našich obchodních cenách, nebo nabídku transakce s jakýmikoliv finančními instrumenty, či nevyžádadnou propagaci pro vaši osobu.
Jakýkoliv obsah třetích stran a také obsah, připravený společností XM, jako jsou názory, novinky, výzkum, analýzy, ceny, další informace nebo odkazy na webové stránky třetích stran, které jsou zobrazeny na tomto webu, jsou poskytovány v neupravené verzi jako obecný tržní komentář, a nepředstavují investiční radu. Pokud je jakýkoliv obsah uváděný jako investiční výzkum, musíte si uvědomit a přijmout, že tento obsah nebyl určený a nebyl připravený v souladu se zákonnými požadavky, vytvořenými pro podporu nezávislosti investičního výzkumu, a jako takový by měl být podle příslušných zákonů a předpisu považovaný pouze za marketingovou komunikaci. Ujistěte se, že jste si přečetli a plně rozumíte našemu Oznámení o seznámení se s riziky a investičním výzkumu, který není nezávislý, týkající se výše uvedených informací, a ke kterým lze přejít zde.