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European Session – Dollar pulls away from 2-week high versus yen, oil prices rebound as inventories drop

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 2:50 pm GMT

The US dollar reversed recent gains today, especially against the yen. The dollar reached a two-week high after being lifted by comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso who said earlier this week that the Bank of Japan was ready to intervene in the markets in order to prevent further yen appreciation if necessary. The greenback reversed from the peak of 109.36 and accelerated its decline after breaking below the key 109 yen level. The pair was down 0.6% on [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil futures in first bullish crossover since 2014

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 1:32 pm GMT

US oil futures have held on to their recent gains amid ongoing daily price volatility in the commodity. Prices touched a 6-month high of 46.76 on April 29 and have been trading above the 43 level since. The recent gains have driven the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average for the first bullish crossover in the daily chart since April 2014. Both the RSI and the MACD remain in positive territory above 50, indicating there is scope for [..]

Dollar ranges hold for now

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 1:01 pm GMT

It has been a relatively quiet few sessions in the foreign exchange market following the release of the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls out of the US. For example, the most important currency pair in the world, euro / dollar, has been pinned to the 1.14 level with little appetite to move either significantly higher or lower for now. Most of the action since the employment report was released has been in dollar / yen, with a rally from about 106.50 all [..]

UK industrial output grows less than expected in March; sterling slides

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 10:52 am GMT

Industrial production in the United Kingdom made a tepid recovery in March following a sharp contraction the previous month. Total production rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March, cancelling out all of the previous month’s drop. However, the figure was below expectations of a more robust bounce back of 0.5%. On an annual basis, output was down 0.2% from the same month in 2015. Manufacturing growth was also positive, but only barely. Manufacturing production expanded by just 0.1% in March from [..]

Asian Session – Dollar pulls back from highs as yen firms; kiwi jumps on RBNZ house price concerns

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 8:11 am GMT

The US dollar eased from its highs following a two-day rally as profit taking dragged the currency lower in Wednesday’s Asian session. The greenback came off from its peak against the yen at the start of Asian trading as it retreated from 109.36 yen to around 108.67 yen in late session. The yen found some support on Wednesday as the threat of immediate intervention receded. Many investors doubt whether the Japanese government would risk intervening in the currency markets before [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY rises above 108, has scope for more recovery

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 7:20 am GMT

The short term outlook for USDJPY turned bullish after prices broke above the key 108 level this week. The pair has retraced more than half of the April to May decline after rebounding from the low of 105.54 and rising steadily to a 2-week high of 109.36 today before turning back down. There appears to be strong resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 109.38 (retracement of the downleg from 111.87 to 105.54). Immediate support is now being provided by [..]

European Session – Dollar rises above 109 yen, euro tests $1.14

Posted on May 10, 2016 at 2:27 pm GMT

The yen was one of the worst performing major currencies today while oil recovered some of yesterday’s losses. It was mainly quiet on the data front, with only UK trade data to catch the market’s attention, although it was low impact news. The UK goods trade deficit narrowed more than expected in March thanks to a rise in exports but the quarterly figure hit an 8-year high. The trade gap widened to 13.273 billion pounds in the first three months [..]

Technical Analysis – German 30 stock index futures neutral around 50-DMA

Posted on May 10, 2016 at 1:30 pm GMT

The German 30 stock index futures has seen a shift in bias from positive to neutral over the past two weeks as prices have dropped from above the 200-day moving average to around the 50-day moving average. The index has rebounded somewhat from Friday’s lows but prices were capped today by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 2015 to the February 2016 downleg from 12404 to 8695.50. The current upward momentum already appears to be waning with the [..]

Asian Session – Yen extends losses as Japan steps up intervention talk

Posted on May 10, 2016 at 7:33 am GMT

The yen extended its losses against major currencies on Tuesday as talk of intervention to weaken the Japanese currency persisted. Japan’s Finance Minister, Taro Aso, followed up yesterday’s warning of intervening in the currency markets by telling the Japanese parliament on Tuesday that it will be “natural to undertake intervention” if the yen continues to strengthen. The US dollar continued its advance above the 108 yen level in Asian trading today to climb to 108.80 yen in late session. The [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD bearish after falling out of rising channel

Posted on May 10, 2016 at 6:54 am GMT

NZDUSD has been in a rising channel since mid-January, rising from 0.6346 to a high of 0.7053 reached in April. There was failure to remain above the key 0.70 level and breaking below this support are accelerated a decline out of the channel. This was a strong negative signal. Prices also fell below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (retracement of the rise from 0.6346 to 0.7053) and are currently around 0.6732. The short-term outlook is bearish as RSI has fallen below [..]

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