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Crude oil rally boosts risk assets, commodity currencies

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:11 pm GMT

It has been a remarkable year for crude oil and market participants that specialize in this particular market.  Having bottomed at just below $28 a barrel in January (a near 13-year low), a mere 4 months later the price has rallied by more than 70% from that low.  Interestingly, the US equity benchmark the S&P 500 also made a low on the day that oil bottomed, although that particular level was also retested in early February for US equities.  This [..]

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US consumer prices post biggest monthly gains since 2013; dollar mixed

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:10 pm GMT

Consumer prices in the United States posted their biggest month-on-month increase in April since February 2013, adding to the evidence of steadily rising inflationary pressures in the country. CPI in April was up 0.4% from the previous month – the biggest increase in three years and above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI rose by 1.1% – in line with estimates but up from 0.9% in March. The core rate, which excludes food and energy items, also quickened [..]

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Sterling reverses gains after surprise drop in UK inflation

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 10:35 am GMT

Inflation in the UK posted a surprise drop in April as a big decline in air fares dragged the consumer price index lower. Annual CPI rose by 0.3% in the 12 months to April, falling short of expectations that it would stay unchanged at 0.5%. The month-on-month rate also missed estimates, as CPI in April increased by 0.1% from March, instead of 0.3% as forecast. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food and alcoholic beverages, was unchanged on the month, missing [..]

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Asian Session – Aussie jumps on less dovish RBA; Pound gains on Brexit poll

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 7:49 am GMT

The Australian dollar was the biggest gainer in today’s Asian session as it was boosted by not so dovish minutes of the RBA’s May meeting. The minutes of the Reserve of Bank of Australia’s meeting, which were published today, revealed that some members of the Bank’s board needed persuasion that a rate cut was warranted. The RBA cut its cash rate by 25bps for the first time in a year earlier this month to 1.75%. The surprise reduction drove the [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bounces back above key 0.73 level

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 7:10 am GMT

AUDUSD bounced from 0.7244 to rise back above the key psychological level of 0.7300. Prices are now hovering around the 50% Fibonacci at 0.7335, which is the retracement of the upleg from 0.6826 to 0.7833. In order to say that the pair has based at the low of 0.7244, a daily close is needed above the 50% Fibonacci. Prices would need to clear resistance provided by the 200-day moving average at 0.7418 to increase the odds of a more sustained [..]

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European Session – Euro rises as dollar weakens on soft Empire State Manufacturing data; oil rallies

Posted on May 16, 2016 at 2:23 pm GMT

It was a relatively quiet European session due to the Whit Monday holiday which meant many major markets were closed. The absence of economic data releases left markets to focus on Friday’s strong US data. This helped the US dollar hang on to its gains made after the solid US retail sales and consumer sentiment data. A quiet session and no European data gave markets little incentive to move the euro out of the 1.1300-1.1330 range until the US session [..]

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Chinese recovery in doubt after April data disappoints

Posted on May 16, 2016 at 1:07 pm GMT

Economic data released on Saturday raised fresh concerns about China’s path to a sustained recovery as major indicators for April all missed estimates. Following March’s better-than-expected figures that had fuelled optimism that growth in the world’s second largest economy is regaining momentum, there had been growing expectations that the April data would add further support to the view that China’s slowdown is bottoming out. Instead, the latest data suggest the economy is still fragile. Industrial production in April rose by [..]

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Asian Session – Markets muted after disappointing Chinese data; dollar steady

Posted on May 16, 2016 at 8:25 am GMT

The US dollar was broadly steady in Monday’s Asian session but off Friday’s peak when it jumped to near one-month highs following better-than-expected data. Strong retail sales and consumer sentiment figures lifted the US currency on Friday as it reignited expectations that the Fed may need to raise rates as early as June. The greenback rose above 109 yen to a two-week high but had eased to around 108.70 yen in Asian trading today as the Japanese currency benefited from [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD tests key 1.13 support level

Posted on May 16, 2016 at 7:06 am GMT

EURUSD is vulnerable to more downside in the near term after Friday’s big drop and dip below the key 1.13 level. On Monday the pair opened back above 1.13 and this level will act as immediate support. But the technicals suggest there is risk of further weakness. The break below the 21-day moving average is a bearish signal. Also, RSI has dipped below 50 into bearish territory. However, the big picture shows the EURUSD pair in an uptrend. There was [..]

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US retail sales rise the most in a year; dollar jumps higher

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 2:58 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States grew at the fastest rate since March 2015 as consumer spending appeared to be rebounding in April following a slowdown in the first quarter. Monthly retail sales rose sharply by 1.3% in April versus estimates of a 0.8% increase and a rebound from the previous month’s 0.3% decline. On a 12-month basis, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% in April from 1.7% in March. Excluding volatile items such as motor vehicles and parts, retail sales [..]

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