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European Session – Dollar gains despite misses in US GDP and consumer sentiment data

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 3:05 pm GMT

Most major currency pairs were directionless during the European Session in the absence of key data releases out of Europe, while traders were re-positioning ahead of the long weekend in the UK and US. Markets in London and New York will both be closed on Monday due to a public holiday. The US dollar was firmer today and gained momentum despite misses on some key US data but US economic growth was revised upward and this helped support the greenback. [..]

Pound starts to discount Bremain while markets put yen question to BoJ, Abe

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 2:55 pm GMT

The British pound the day after The British pound has been putting in a strong performance over the past few trading sessions, as it has pushed to a 3-week high versus the US dollar (above 1.4730) while pressuring euro / pound to a near 4-month low of 0.7564. This was the lowest point since before the date of the referendum on EU membership was decided earlier this year, on 20 February. It is obvious that the main factor pushing sterling [..]

Week Ahead – Key week for dollar with payrolls in focus; ECB meeting also eyed

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 1:19 pm GMT

It will be a busy week for US data and the dollar in the next seven days as a number of key indicators are expected including the all-important NFP report at the end of the week. The euro will also come into focus as the European Central Bank holds its scheduled policy meeting, while Chinese PMI and Australian and Canadian GDP numbers will also be important. Japanese household spending likely to fall back in April Japanese data will start the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar consolidates ahead of Yellen; oil slips back below $50

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 7:53 am GMT

Major currencies were range-bound on Friday as broadly positive US data yesterday failed to give markets any direction. Traders are instead looking to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance later today for further clues on the Fed’s intentions at the June policy meeting. Yellen is due to participate in a discussion on interest rates at Harvard University. In the meantime, there were more hawkish comments from Fed policymakers as Washington DC Fed President Jerome Powell said on Thursday that another rate [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD falls below 1.12 in downward channel

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 7:10 am GMT

EURUSD has been falling in a descending channel since falling from the high of 1.1615. The pair broke below the key 1.12 level earlier this week. There was a strong bounce from 1.1128 but prices found resistance at 1.12. It is also near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0520 to 1.1615. This level lies at 1.1196. RSI is still in bearish territory below 50 and a significant shift in upside momentum would be needed to propel [..]

European Session – Oil above $50 a barrel while loonie outperforms, pound hits 4-month high

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 3:00 pm GMT

The US dollar was weaker versus most G10 currencies today as risk appetite was back in the markets. Commodities were firmer due to the pro-risk bias. The Canadian dollar outperformed on oil gains and also after the Bank of Canada held interest rates on Wednesday. Data that was in focus today was the second estimate of UK GDP and then out of the US there were jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales. The euro strengthened against the [..]

Dollar reverses gains after mixed US durable goods orders

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 2:41 pm GMT

Durable goods orders sent mixed messages about the US economy today as a jump in total new orders in April was overshadowed by a drop in the core measure. Total new orders for manufactured goods meant to last for at least three years jumped by 3.4% month-on-month in April, beating estimates of 0.5%. The figure is even stronger when looking against the prior month’s reading which was revised up from 1.3% to 1.9%. However, the solid headline figure was accompanied [..]

UK Q1 GDP unrevised but exports and investment slump; pound pulls back

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 10:45 am GMT

UK growth was left unrevised in the second estimate for first quarter GDP but a more detailed breakdown pointed to some worrying developments for the British economy. GDP growth was confirmed at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in today’s second reading, in line with estimates. But the annual rate was revised down slightly from 2.1% to 2.0%, missing forecasts that it would stay unrevised. As expected, growth during the first three months of the year was driven by household consumption, which rose by [..]

Asian Session – Brent crude tops $50 for first time in 7 months; dollar slips below 110 yen

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 8:20 am GMT

Crude oil prices extended their rally into a third day on Thursday as Brent crude broke above $50 a barrel for the first time in nearly 7 months. US oil futures also rose to fresh 7-month highs, stopping just shy of $50. Oil prices were boosted yesterday after data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a bigger-than-expected drop in crude stocks for the week ending May 20. Other commodities also moved higher, helping energy and commodity stocks to make [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPAUD bullish in ascending channel

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 7:14 am GMT

GBPAUD remains bullish in an ascending channel on the daily chart. The pair broke above the 200-day moving average as well on Wednesday, which gives an indication of the probability of further advance. However it should be noted that the RSI has entered overbought territory above 70 which indicates there is risk of a pull back. But there is immediate support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the downleg from 2.1706 to 1.8292. This level lies at 2.0392. Downside moves [..]

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