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European Session – Commodities rally as Fed rate hike hopes fade; Dollar steady ahead of Yellen

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 2:45 pm GMT

Commodities rallied in European trading on Monday as a weaker dollar boosted commodity prices across the board just as market expectations of a Fed rate hike in June fell drastically. The dollar’s slide on Friday following a much weaker-than-expected jobs data has increased sentiment for commodities such as copper, zinc, nickel and iron ore, as well as for oil. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index was up 1.5% at 192.25 in afternoon European trading, boosted in part by stronger crude [..]

US economy scorecard after the big miss in jobs

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 2:11 pm GMT

The disappointment following the latest US employment report weighed heavily on the US dollar and on US bond yields as the data brought into question the Fed’s ability to raise rates during its meetings in June or July. However, it is a good idea to try to put the jobs numbers in a broader context – both comparing with job market numbers of previous months as well as to have a look at other indicators that have been released recently. [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD gains capped by 100-DMA

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 9:46 am GMT

AUDUSD ended the week on Friday with a 2.5% gain but is being capped by the 100-day moving average after meeting resistance just below 0.7370. Momentum indicators are mixed with the stochastics continuing to rise, suggesting there is still some upside momentum despite today’s dip. However, further gains in the near term are likely to be limited as the %K line has already crossed into overbought territory. The MACD is still in negative territory, underlining the broader negative outlook for [..]

Asian Session – Dollar stabilizes after NFP dip; pound slides on Brexit fears

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 8:10 am GMT

The US dollar stabilized in Asian trading on Monday following the sharp falls on Friday after the disappointing jobs data. Markets were shocked last week when US non-farm payrolls for May missed estimates by a large margin to grow by the slowest pace since 2010. The dollar fell to a one-month low of 106.36 against the yen, while the euro hit a three-week high of 1.1373 dollars. The greenback managed to come off its lows in late Asian session today [..]

Technical Analysis – EURJPY remains on downside after fall below 122

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 7:07 am GMT

EURJPY increased its bearish bias after falling below the key 122 yen level last week. The pair has been making lower lows and lower highs for the past one year since falling from the peak of 141.04 in June 2015. Prices have been falling in a descending channel to reach a low of 120.81 on Friday, a more than three-year low. The daily technicals are supporting the bearish view. RSI is below 50 and MACD is below zero. The market [..]

Dollar plummets after big miss on US non-farm payrolls

Posted on June 3, 2016 at 2:56 pm GMT

Jobs growth in the United States slowed to the lowest since 2010 in May even as the unemployment rate fell to an 8½-year low. Non-farm payrolls missed forecasts by a large margin as they rose by just 38k instead of the expected 164k. Adding to the poor figure was a downward revision to April’s reading from 160k to 123k. The disappointing increase in the number of new jobs was in sharp contrast to the surprise dip in the jobless rate, [..]

European Session – Nonfarm payrolls miss causes dollar selloff as June Fed rate hike less likely

Posted on June 3, 2016 at 2:39 pm GMT

Today’s calendar was a busy one, with the highlight of the day being the US nonfarm payrolls report. The big miss in the May figure puts the Federal Reserve in a tricky situation after the lowest number of jobs were created in more than five years last month, making a June rate rise less likely. Only 38,000 jobs were created in May versus most economists’ forecasts of around 160,000. Even more disappointing news was that April’s 160,000 number was revised [..]

Week Ahead – Light week for US data but Yellen speech eyed; RBA and RBNZ meet

Posted on June 3, 2016 at 1:24 pm GMT

After a packed week for US data, the US calendar is looking relatively light for the next seven days. However, the spotlight will stay on the US as Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech on June 6, which may offer the final clue on whether the Fed will raise rates in the middle of the month. Also to watch are revised GDP estimates for Japan and the Eurozone. Plus, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of [..]

Asian Session – Dollar steady ahead of NFP; Oil holds around $50 after OPEC

Posted on June 3, 2016 at 8:24 am GMT

Major currencies were steady at the start of trading in Asia today with the euro stuck near yesterday’s lows and the dollar mostly flat against a basket of currencies. The yen on the other hand held firm against most currencies as risk appetite was scarce ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report later today. Data out of Asian markets on Friday consisted of services PMI for China and Japan. Services activity slowed slightly in China according to the Caixin services [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains neutral bias below 1.12

Posted on June 3, 2016 at 7:14 am GMT

EURUSD maintains a neutral bias in the short term as it continues to trade sideways in a range of 1.1100 and 1.1220. Downside risk exists as the daily RSI remains below 50 in bearish territory. Immediate support is provided by the 200-day moving average at 1.1095, while below this the 50% Fibonacci at 1.1067 (retracement of the upleg from 1.0520 to 1.1615) is an important level. A break below this level would shift the pair’s longer-term bias, which was in [..]

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