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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD looking oversold below 0.70

Posted on March 7, 2017 at 1:13 pm GMT

NZDUSD extended its losses into a sixth straight session today, with its one-week decline now totalling about 3%. The sell-off has driven prices below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, and below the key 0.70 level. As a result, the medium-term picture is looking increasingly neutral after the December to February rally failed to lift prices above the 2016 high of 0.7484. In the shorter-term, the bias is strongly bearish as the RSI is just above oversold level, while [..]

Asian Session – Aussie rises after RBA; greenback steady as markets eye risk events

Posted on March 7, 2017 at 8:23 am GMT

It was a relatively quiet Asian session with most currencies trading in a range as investors were cautious ahead of upcoming risk events such as this week’s US jobs report and the March 14-15 Federal Reserve policy meeting, while political uncertainties in Europe also led to a lackluster session. The Australian dollar was the best performing major currency after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady and maintained an optimistic view on the economy. The main cash rate [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD short-term neutral at middle Bollinger line

Posted on March 7, 2017 at 8:18 am GMT

EURUSD is up at the moment from the day’s open. The pair is currently at a level where it has recouped a bit more than half of yesterday’s fall. The RSI indicator is hinting to a neutral short-term bias as it is currently close to the 50 neutral level at 49. The price is roughly at the level of the middle Bollinger line (a 20-day moving average). Should it continue heading up, an immediate resistance area coming into view is [..]

European Session – Euro hurt by never ending French presidential drama; US jobs report to cement rate hike

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 3:50 pm GMT

In the absence of economic data releases, barring the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index and factory orders out of the US, market participants’ attention remained on geopolitical tensions and on the last piece of the puzzle to cement an interest rate hike during the FOMC meeting scheduled to take place next week, namely Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against the currencies of six major trading partners, was back up today after experiencing a [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD bullish short-term outlook but stalls at 1.34

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 3:47 pm GMT

USDCAD peaked above the key 1.3400 level on Friday but the pair failed to record a daily close above this key psychological level. After hitting a 2-month high of 1.3436, prices fell back down to 1.3370. The limited decline and the rebound towards 1.3400 today, suggests that the underlying short-term trend is still positive. The bullish bias was strengthened after the market rose above the 200-day and then above the 50-day moving average. But RSI has reached overbought levels so this [..]

Investment Theme – After Yellen, markets in search for next dollar driver

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 3:03 pm GMT

With a March rate hike now mostly priced in by financial markets, the US dollar appears to be suffering a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact” as the rally struggles to regain momentum. Last week, a chorus of Fed speakers, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself, all but confirmed a rate rise as early as the next FOMC meeting on March 14-15, pushing up the odds (as implied by Fed fund futures prices) to over 80%. However, apart [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold’s more than 2-month rally capped by 200-day moving average

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 2:59 pm GMT

Gold was bullish since mid-December and was rising in an upward channel to reach a high of 1263.74. The 200-day moving average proved to be a key resistance level and capped any further upside moves. Prices have now broken out of the channel after having pulled back from the February 27 high of 1263.74. The market had reached overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI which reached 70. Prices rebounded sharply from a dip to 1222.76 on Friday and are [..]

Asian Session – Yen strengthens on safe haven demand

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 8:37 am GMT

Risk aversion due to geopolitical concerns weighed on markets during Monday’s Asian session. The yen was stronger as investors moved into safe havens following news of a North Korean missile launch. The dollar slipped against the yen in Asian session trading to reach a low of 113.65, moving further off last week’s high of 114.74 when then greenback was boosted on growing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. The dollar index was down 0.1 [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY looking bearish in the short-term; Price in between the moving averages

Posted on March 6, 2017 at 8:10 am GMT

GBPJPY is currently down since the day’s open. The pair has been mostly moving sideways over the last couple of weeks. The RSI is currently in bearish territory below the 50 neutral level at 43. Adding to the short-term bearish signal is the fact that the MACD histogram is negative and below the red signal line. The current level of the 50-day moving average (MA), currently at 141.54, is likely to act as resistance. Bear in mind that this point [..]

Week Ahead – NFP eyed ahead of FOMC; ECB and RBA also in focus

Posted on March 3, 2017 at 4:55 pm GMT

The latest non-farm payrolls out of the United States will be on traders’ watch list next week as another solid report will likely be taken as confirmation that the Fed will raise rates when it meets in mid-March. In the meantime, there will be other central bank meetings to keep traders occupied as both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the European Central Bank will be holding their policy meetings. RBA likely to remain neutral Following the upbeat fourth quarter GDP [..]

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