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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY falls to 3-year low, resumes downtrend

Posted on June 13, 2016 at 7:18 am GMT

GBPJPY has turned increasingly bearish after breaking below key support of 151.63. The pair touched a three-year low of 150.07 early on Monday. Momentum is bearish, as the daily RSI has fallen below 50 and is trending down. This suggests risk of further downside moves, and the market could see a resumption of the long term downtrend that started from 195.87 back in June 2015. The 50 and 200-day moving averages are negatively aligned and sloping down, which also support [..]

European Session – Brexit concerns fuel risk aversion, boosting safe havens and pressuring bond yields

Posted on June 10, 2016 at 3:01 pm GMT

The risk off environment in the markets today supported safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss Franc, while bond yields from developed countries fell. Risk aversion caused bond yields to decline as investors began to become nervous about the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum which is in less than two weeks. Caution also appears to be taking hold ahead of another risk event – the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. As recent polls showed Brexit [..]

Technical Analysis – US 30 index futures pull back from 18000 level

Posted on June 10, 2016 at 2:14 pm GMT

The US 30 stock index futures pulled away from seven-week highs above 18000 to find support around the 17850 level. Further declines could see the index fall back into the Ichimoku cloud and the next support could come around the 17700 level. A break below this key level would neutralize the current positive bias, which has weakened after two days of losses. The weakened momentum is highlighted by the RSI having dipped sharply downwards. However, it remains above 50 and [..]

Week Ahead – Central bank policy to drive the markets as Fed, BoJ, BoE and SNB meet

Posted on June 10, 2016 at 11:53 am GMT

Key data releases next week out of China, the UK and the US will likely struggle to get much attention as monetary policy takes center stage. The US Federal Reserve will hold its highly anticipated FOMC meeting but the Bank of Japan’s meeting may be the one to watch out for, while the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are unlikely to produce any surprises. Main China indicators to hold steady in May Data out of China is [..]

Asian Session – Euro and pound under pressure but dollar regains momentum

Posted on June 10, 2016 at 7:50 am GMT

The dollar moved higher on Friday to put it on track for a weekly gain against a basket of currencies as increased risk aversion weighed on other majors in Asian trading today. The greenback was also boosted from stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims yesterday, which put the prospect of a Fed rate rise in July back on the agenda, though a June hike is now seen as firmly off the table. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 94.15, having recovered [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY risk of further downside towards 106

Posted on June 10, 2016 at 7:16 am GMT

USDJPY has turned more bearish in the short term after breaking below a key level of 108.00 and after retracing more than half of the recent upleg from 105.54 to 111.44. The pair accelerated its decline after falling below the 50% Fibonacci of 108.49 a week ago. Prices are now pivoting the 78.6% Fibonacci at 106.81. Resistance lies in the area of the 61.8% Fibonacci at 107.80 and at the key 108.00 level. Above this the 50% Fibonacci is an [..]

European Session – Firmer dollar pressures euro and oil prices

Posted on June 9, 2016 at 2:33 pm GMT

In a mainly risk off market environment today, the dollar firmed up against the euro and sterling, while the safe haven yen gained. The euro fell to a more than three-year low against the Japanese currency to reach 120.51 yen, the weakest since March 2013. The single currency was also under pressure against the broadly firmer dollar, which was boosted even more after US jobless claims data. The more upbeat report pushed euro/dollar even lower. The euro lost the key [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDJPY breaks above channel and cloud top

Posted on June 9, 2016 at 1:30 pm GMT

NZDJPY jumped to a 6-week high of 76.28 earlier today, breaking above the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since April. Today’s sharp rally also pushed prices above the top of the upward trending regression channel that prices have been trading in for most of June. RSI is rising and has yet to reach overbought levels so there is scope for further gains in the near term. The MACD histogram turned positive after today’s gains, further supporting the strengthening bullish [..]

New Zealand dollar rallies amid RBNZ reluctance to cut rates on house price concerns

Posted on June 9, 2016 at 11:16 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% for the second straight month at its monetary policy meeting today. The decision was in line with most economists’ forecasts although some had expected another cut to follow March’s 0.25% reduction. The disappointment that the RBNZ did not surprise with another cut was coupled with a slightly less dovish than expected statement by the central bank. In today’s statement, the RBNZ said house prices in [..]

Asian Session – New Zealand dollar soars on less dovish RBNZ; euro back below 1.14 dollars

Posted on June 9, 2016 at 8:03 am GMT

The New Zealand dollar was the strongest performing currency on Thursday as it soared by almost 2% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. While most economists were not expecting the RBNZ to cut rates at today’s policy meeting, analysts cited the increased concern on house prices in the bank’s statement as a possible hindrance to further cuts. The overall tone of the RBNZ statement was still dovish though as the central bank said [..]

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