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Eurozone services PMI slows unexpectedly in June but manufacturing PMI rises to 6-month high

Posted on June 23, 2016 at 11:16 am GMT

The latest Markit PMIs painted a mixed picture for Eurozone economic activity in June as the services sector appeared to struggle, while manufacturers enjoyed a strong month. Political and economic uncertainty were cited as the main reasons for the drop in business confidence across the region. The euro area’s services PMI according to Markit’s flash reading for June declined to 52.4 from 53.3 in May. The figure is the lowest in 18 months and compares with estimates of a smaller [..]

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Asian Session – Pound climbs to 6-month high vs dollar as polls open for EU referendum vote

Posted on June 23, 2016 at 7:58 am GMT

The British pound climbed to a six-month high against the dollar at the start of trading in Asia on Thursday as traders remained hopeful that Britons will vote to remain in the European Union in today’s referendum. Final opinion polls out yesterday showed a slight boost in support for the ‘remain’ camp, although a couple of polls put the ‘leave’ side in the lead by 1-2%. The FT poll of polls as of June 23 had the stay camp on [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP neutral bias with downside risk

Posted on June 23, 2016 at 7:09 am GMT

EURGBP has a neutral short term bias, capped below the key 0.80 level and is above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the November to April upleg from 0.6981 to 0.8116. This level lies at 0.7547 and acts as important support, which if broken, would shift the outlook from neutral to bearish. The next target down would be at 0.7414, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Upside momentum was lost after RSI fell below 50 into bearish territory last week, which [..]

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European Session – Sterling rally pauses ahead of referendum; kiwi hits fresh 12-month high

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 3:06 pm GMT

Trading in the currency markets was subdued a day before key risk seen on Thursday’s UK referendum on EU membership. An overall pro-risk bias remains though as recent polls have suggested the “remain” camp gaining more ground and as such, major currency pairs are holding onto gains made in the past few days. Sterling rose during the European session to reach a high of $1.4772, close to yesterday’s five-month high. Helping support the pound were UK bookmaker odds this morning [..]

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Cable extends gains less than 24 hours before Brexit polls open

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 2:51 pm GMT

With less than 24 hours to go before the polls open for the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU, the pound rose past 1.47 dollars despite most opinion polls pointing to a very tight race. Campaigning for Thursday’s referendum heated up today with both sides making a last ditch attempt to win over undecided voters.  Senior figures, including former British PM John Major and current UK PM David Cameron on the ‘remain’ side, and UKIP leader Nigel Farage and [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD capped by 200-DMA; bias still positive

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 10:16 am GMT

GBPUSD has been capped by the 200-day moving average and has been hovering around it since Monday following the 5% rally from last Thursday’s low of 1.4012. The pair has consistently met resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December to February downleg from 1.5239 to 1.3835. The positive momentum generated by the rally is holding, with RSI comfortably above 50 and the MACD histogram rising above 0. However, prices have consistently struggled to rise significantly above the [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar muted after cautious Yellen; Sterling holds onto gains ahead of polling day

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 8:02 am GMT

Sterling was steady on the final day of the referendum campaign on what is expected to be a tight vote tomorrow when Britons go to the polls to decide whether the UK should stay in or leave the European Union. The pound edged up to 1.4673 dollars in late Asian trading today but was slightly weaker against the euro as the single currency firmed to 0.7674 pounds. The dollar was muted on Wednesday following another cautious outlook on the US [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD jumps to 7-week high to test key 0.75 level

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 7:19 am GMT

AUDUSD briefly breached the key 0.75 level on Tuesday to hit a seven-week high of 0.7511. But prices failed to close above this resistance level and are trading below it early on Wednesday. The 0.75 level is also close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 0.7833 to 0.7144 (April to May decline) and lies at 0.7488. This Fibonacci level is a critical level and has been tested before recently with the same result of failing to [..]

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European Session – Sterling reverses gains after new Brexit poll; gold falls further as Yellen testifies to Congress

Posted on June 21, 2016 at 2:37 pm GMT

The currency markets have been focusing on Thursday’s UK referendum on EU membership and all eyes are on opinion polls which tend to have a large impact on the pound and other currencies as well. Sterling has had quite a good run in the last three trading days, rising to a five-month high of $1.4782 in the early part of the European session today on renewed hopes a Brexit will be averted, as indicated by some polls published on Monday. [..]

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ZEW survey shows optimism by investors and analysts on German economy

Posted on June 21, 2016 at 1:25 pm GMT

The ZEW European Economic Research Centre showed a high degree of optimism by investors and analysts concerning the prospects of the German economy.  The Economic Sentiment index jumped to 19.2 in June from 6.4 the previous month.  The expectation was for the index to drop to 4.7.  Economic sentiment was at its highest since August 2015.  The current conditions index showed less improvement as it rose from 53.1 to 54.5. The figures were a vote of confidence in the German [..]

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