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Technical Analysis – USDJPY remains bearish below Ichimoku cloud

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 9:26 am GMT

USDJPY was stuck in its recent three-day trading range today and has been capped by the Tenkan-sen line since bouncing off last Friday’s 2½-year low of 98.96. Last week’s slide has significantly increased the downside bias for the pair with the MACD falling deeper into negative territory. There is little upside momentum for near-term gains as RSI remains well below 50 just above oversold level. The Tenkan-sen line is providing immediate resistance at 102.85 and prices will likely struggle to [..]

Asian Session – Global stocks recover but yen on the rise again as markets still nervous

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 8:15 am GMT

Global stocks attempted a strong rebound yesterday as the immediate shock of the UK vote to leave the EU appeared to dissipate. However, risk sentiment was still very weak as the pound made only a modest recovery and the yen was back on the rise again today. The S&P 500 in the US closed 1.8% higher on Tuesday, while in Europe, London’s FTSE 100 closed up 2.6%. Asian stocks on Wednesday were mostly positive too but currency markets remained uneasy. [..]

European Session – Improved risk sentiment lifts pound; aussie outperforms

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 2:56 pm GMT

A rebound in risk sentiment today prompted some sharp moves in the major currencies but there are still significant political and economic risks ahead. Commodity prices reflect improving sentiment, with gold lower and crude oil prices higher on the day. Sterling gained some 70 pips against the dollar during the European session to rise into the $1.33 handle after falling sub-$1.32 yesterday to a fresh 31-year low. But gains are likely to be limited and the pound is expected to [..]

US Q1 GDP revised up again but Fed looking less likely to budge after Brexit

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 2:26 pm GMT

Economic growth in the United States was revised higher for a second time in the third estimate of GDP for the first quarter. US GDP grew by 1.1% at an annualized rate between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first three months of 2016. This represents an upward revision from the 0.8% rate in the second estimate, which itself was revised up from 0.5% in the preliminary estimate. Expectations were for a slightly smaller upward revision to 1.0%. On [..]

Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures struggle to hold onto 50-day moving average

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 10:20 am GMT

WTI oil futures closed below the 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time since February but managed to recover above it in European trading today. The 50-day moving average has been broadly following oil’s upward trend path since March and the drop below it suggests a weakening of the bullish bias. RSI falling below 50 is another indication of the current weakened momentum. Prices found support yesterday just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-June upleg [..]

Brexit is more similar to Grexit than most think

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 9:57 am GMT

Nearly 1 ½ years ago in January 2015, voters in Greece brought the radical leftist SYRIZA party to power on the promise to do away with austerity while keeping Greece inside the Eurozone. More recently, last Thursday British voters decided to abandon the EU in order to close their borders to free movement of European nationals and stop paying into the EU budget while keeping access to the Single Market for goods and services. So there is a common theme in [..]

Asian Session – Pound steadies ahead of EU summit; yuan hits fresh 2010 low

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 8:04 am GMT

The UK pound was firmer on Tuesday as it attempted to move away from yesterday’s multi-year lows. Sterling hit a fresh 31-year low of 1.3119 dollars on Monday as uncertainty about the future of Britain’s relationship with the EU weighed on the UK currency. Attention is now shifting to the EU summit later today, where EU leaders will likely press David Cameron not to delay triggering Article 50 that would start the process of Britain negotiating its exit from the [..]

Technical Analysis – Silver maintains bullish bias

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 7:31 am GMT

Silver has been on an upward trajectory since bouncing from the December 2015 low of 13.62. After quite a big dip in May to 15.79, prices rose back up and peaked at 18.29 last Friday before stabilizing. This is the highest in 1 ½ years. The technicals are still indicating a bullish bias – MACD above zero, RSI above 50 and there was a bullish crossover of the 50-day moving average with the 200-day moving average in March. The market [..]

European Session – Sterling hits fresh 31-year low vs dollar as Brexit uncertainty rattles financial markets

Posted on June 27, 2016 at 3:10 pm GMT

Sterling hit the lowest since September 1985 against the dollar on Monday as investor fears over the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK and global economy dominated the market theme. The pound had stabilized around 1.34 dollars after opening almost 2% lower, but it slid further in European trading to touch a new 31-year low of 1.3119 dollars. The euro rose to fresh 3-year highs to climb to 0.8364 pounds but it remained subdued against the dollar. The [..]

Pound under pressure as Osborne tries to calm markets after Brexit win

Posted on June 27, 2016 at 11:28 am GMT

The British pound opened almost 2% lower against the dollar on Monday as currency markets reeled from the UK’s shock referendum result last Thursday to leave the European Union. The fallout from the British referendum vote is unlikely to go away anytime soon as the UK government as well as the opposition party find themselves in a deepening political crisis, which could complicate or prolong the UK’s negotiation to exit the EU. The UK’s finance minister, George Osborne, tried to [..]

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