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European Session – Euro recovers as ECB not seen in a hurry to change QE rules

Posted on July 1, 2016 at 3:00 pm GMT

The euro recovered above 1.11 versus the US dollar in today’s European Session after indications that the ECB would not change its QE rules in order to make its asset purchases more flexible. Such speculation was hurting the euro; mainly that the ECB was preparing to change its QE rules in order to buy more peripheral bonds. This was not substantiated and the euro managed to recover. Risk assets were strong again today, as most European stock markets were up [..]

Week Ahead – US jobs expected to bounce back; RBA to stand pat

Posted on July 1, 2016 at 2:32 pm GMT

Fed rate hike expectations may have eased following the shock Brexit vote but US non-farm payrolls will still be closely watched next week as it’s an important barometer for the US economy. Also to keep an eye on are central bank meetings in Australia and in Sweden. Fed speeches and non-farm payrolls in focus After a quiet start to the week as Americans celebrate Independence Day on Monday, things will get busier from thereon with plenty of economic data to [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY maintains downtrend after recent slide

Posted on July 1, 2016 at 9:29 am GMT

AUDJPY has rebounded from the 5¼-year low of 72.41 it touched a week ago to around 76.70 today. However, prices remain significantly below the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day moving average, underlining the medium-term bearish outlook. In the near-term, the stochastics point to a weak upside momentum following the partial rebound seen over the past three days. The converged tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are currently capping further gains by providing resistance at around the 77 level. Should the upside momentum [..]

Asian Session – Pound drops after Carney hints at stimulus; yuan hits fresh 2010 lows

Posted on July 1, 2016 at 7:44 am GMT

The pound dropped back below the 1.33 level against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney hinted at a summer rate cut. In a live broadcast, Carney told reporters yesterday that “some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer” as economic growth in the UK takes a hit from the Brexit fallout. The news boosted stocks but weighed on the pound as most analysts now expect for the Bank of England to [..]

European Session – Pound holds above $1.34 as Johnson quits Tory race but euro comes under pressure

Posted on June 30, 2016 at 2:27 pm GMT

The euro and the pound fluctuated against the dollar in European trading on Thursday, though they remained within their recent trading range. End-of-quarter positioning by traders contributed to the volatility. The pound had a weak start to the day, dropping to a low of 1.3362 dollars towards the end of Asian trading, but recovered to 1.3495 dollars by mid-European session. Improving risk sentiment helped sterling but a surprise announcement from former London Mayor Boris Johnson that he will not run [..]

Eurozone inflation rises to 5-month high as energy drag recedes

Posted on June 30, 2016 at 11:57 am GMT

Inflation across the 19-nation euro area rose to a 5-month high in June as the drop in energy prices moderated. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, annual CPI increased to 0.1% in June from -0.1% in May. It was the first positive reading since January and was above consensus forecasts of 0%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and unprocessed food items, was unchanged at 0.8% year-on-year, in line with analysts’ expectations. The pick-up in the headline rate was mainly due to [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP strongly bullish at 2-year highs

Posted on June 30, 2016 at 9:17 am GMT

EURGBP appears to have resumed its upward trend that began in December 2015 following a two-month correction that saw the pair drop from of 0.8116 to 0.7564. The near term bias has turned strongly bullish after last Friday’s surge with prices hitting a fresh 2¼-year high of 0.8378 on Monday. The MACD has reversed sharply from negative to positive territory but with RSI hitting overbought levels, EURGBP is already showing signs of consolidation. Prices have dipped back below the upper [..]

Asian Session – Pound steady but dollar drifts lower on fading rate hike expectations

Posted on June 30, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

Currency markets maintained their calm on Thursday as investors turned increasingly hopeful that central banks would maintain or expand accommodative monetary policy following the Brexit vote. The dollar drifted lower against a basket of currencies for a third day as expectations of a Fed rate hike this year declined dramatically in the wake of the surprise UK vote to leave the EU. The greenback was slightly down against the yen at 102.54 in late Asian trading today, while the euro [..]

US Personal Consumption shows economy in good shape during Q2

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 2:28 pm GMT

Personal income and spending numbers for May were released broadly in line with expectations today, but there were upbeat messages from the positive revisions from the previous month’s already strong data. Personal income was the only miss as it came in at a positive 0.2% month-on-month compared to a 0.3% change expected by economists in a Reuters poll. However, the previous month’s income change was raised to 0.5% from 0.4% initially reported. Personal consumption met expectations by coming in at [..]

European Session – Pound breaks above 1.35 dollars as some calm returns to markets post-Brexit

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 2:13 pm GMT

The British pound headed higher for a second day on Wednesday as risk appetite improved in European trading following a cautious start to the day. Sterling had climbed by 1.3% to 1.3510 dollars in late European session, while the euro slipped to 0.8230 pounds. The yen pulled back from earlier gains as risk aversion eased during the course of the day. The pound and the euro both firmed against the Japanese currency at 138.76 and 114.20 yen respectively. A strong [..]

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