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Technical Analysis – USDJPY downside pressure eases on move above 100

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 8:48 am GMT

In the bigger picture USDJPY remains in a downtrend but the downside has paused as the market remains above the key 100 yen level. This level at 100 acts as a major support level, which if it is broken, there is scope to retest the 2016 low of 98.96 reached on June 24. A further decline from this level would accelerate a move down towards a key psychological level at 97.00 where there previously was some congestion around this area [..]

Asian Session – Dollar extends gains as Fed’s Fischer adds to hawkish voices

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 8:30 am GMT

Markets were quiet on the first trading day of the week as the summer holiday and a very light calendar kept traders away. The main driver of currency markets on Monday were comments from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, which triggered a fresh rally in the dollar. Speaking at a conference in Colorado on Sunday, Fischer said the Fed is getting close to hitting its targets for full employment and 2% inflation. He added that although jobs growth has slowed [..]

Week Ahead – All eyes on Yellen at Jackson Hole; Flash Eurozone PMI and GDP revisions also in focus

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 3:11 pm GMT

With not too many items on the economic calendar next week, attention will turn to Fed Chair Janet Yellen when she speaks at this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, United States. The annual economic policy summit of central bankers and policy experts will be closely watched this year as investors look for clues from Yellen on the timing of the next US rate rise following some hawkish remarks from Fed officials recently. In terms of data, Eurozone flash PMI, [..]

European Session – Dollar steadies above 100 yen but set for weekly loss; loonie falls on weak retail sales, inflation data

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 3:10 pm GMT

The US dollar was back in favour today, helping it rise back above the key 100 yen level after falling below it yesterday. The greenback held above this level throughout the European session. Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback made a significant recovery today, halting nine straight days of declines, rising to a session high of $1.2890 from yesterday’s 7-week low of $1.2762. Aside from falling oil prices (the loonie is closely linked to moves in oil prices), Canadian retail sales [..]

Asian Session – Dollar supported by hawkish Fed comments; Aussie dips on banks rating warning

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 8:28 am GMT

Currency markets were subdued on the last trading day of the week as volumes were thin due to the summer holiday and in the absence of any major data releases. The main market mover was more hawkish comments from Regional Fed presidents William Dudley and John Williams, which provided some support to the dollar. Dudley reiterated on Thursday that the US is getting closer to full employment and that economic growth should strengthen in the second half of 2016. Meanwhile, [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD pauses 9-day decline, remains bearish

Posted on August 19, 2016 at 8:06 am GMT

USDCAD was on a sharp downward trajectory since early August, falling from above $1.31 down to 1.2762 on Thursday. There was a reversal this morning but there are no clear signals yet if this move up can be sustained. The overall picture is quite bearish and RSI is below 50 in bearish territory. Also, the market is below the 200-day moving average (this support the bearish view). USDCAD was on the rise from the June low of 1.2653 to the [..]

European Session – Pound jumps on strong retail sales, dollar above 100 yen

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

Sterling was one of the strongest performing major currencies today after being boosted by a much better-than-expected UK retail sales report. Headline retail sales jumped 1.4% month-on-month which was far above the 0.2% gain expected. This was a surprising outcome as one would have anticipated a bigger negative impact from the Brexit vote. Warmer weather was a main factor behind the rise in retail sales volumes. The pound jumped significantly against the dollar after the data to reach its highest [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY neutral to bearish below 50-DMA

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 1:59 pm GMT

AUDJPY remained stuck below the 50-day moving average with today’s upside momentum proving too weak to drive stronger gains. The near-term bias is slightly bearish with the MACD just below zero. Further upside gains are likely to be weak as the stochastics %K line appears to be to flattening out after a shallow uptick. If prices are able to extend their gains, the 38.2% Fibonacci level will likely act as a resistance just above the 50-day moving average at 78.0. [..]

Sterling soars above 1.31 dollars as warm weather boosts UK retail spending

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 11:43 am GMT

Britons defied fears of uncertainty and turmoil in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote and instead headed to the high street as warm weather boosted consumer spending in July. Data out today showed retail sales jumped by 1.4% month-on-month in July, more than reversing the 0.9% drop in the previous month and well above expectations of a 0.2% rise. On a 12-month basis, retail sales beat estimates of 4.2% to rise by 5.9% – the fastest pace in almost [..]

Asian Session – Dollar struggles below 100 yen as FOMC minutes show split views

Posted on August 18, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

The US dollar stumbled after the minutes of the July FOMC meeting revealed the Fed was still in no hurry to raise rates. The minutes, published yesterday, showed a growing division within the FOMC on the timing of the next rate rise. According to the minutes, a couple of participants advocated for a rate hike in July arguing that the labor market is nearing full employment. However, several other members thought there would be “ample time” to respond if inflation [..]

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