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European Session – Sterling rallies to 3-week high, oil falls after EIA data show rise in inventories

Posted on August 24, 2016 at 2:54 pm GMT

Sterling was one of the best performing major currencies today as it rose to a three-week high against the dollar, above the key $1.32 level to $1.3272. The pound has had a good week so far, having risen 1.3% versus the greenback, following a 1.2% gain last week. Recent upbeat UK data has been the main driver behind the British currency’s strength. Post-Brexit economic data have been coming in better-than-expected. On Tuesday, a CBI report showed orders for British manufacturing [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD retains bullish outlook but tests critical 1.13 level

Posted on August 24, 2016 at 8:41 am GMT

The recent rise in EURUSD was rejected at highs of 1.1365 reached on August 18 and since then prices eased lower to test the key 1.1300 level. The upside move from 1.0951 (June 24 low) lost momentum as RSI reached near overbought levels around 70 and then turned back down. Immediate support lies at the August 22 low of 1.1270, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level (retracement of 1.0951 to 1.1365). The medium term outlook for EURUSD is [..]

Asian Session – Dollar edges higher on strong housing data but trading cautious ahead of Yellen

Posted on August 24, 2016 at 8:20 am GMT

Currency markets were stuck in a summer lull as the absence of any major data and cautiousness ahead of Yellen’s speech later this week kept trading subdued in Wednesday’s Asian session. The dollar was lifted from stronger-than-expected new home sales figures out of the US yesterday with investors shrugging off a slightly weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI reading. The greenback spiked below 100 yen several times before edging higher after the housing data. It was last trading around 100.30 yen in [..]

European Session – Euro jumps on French PMI data, dollar consolidates around 100 yen, oil down for a second day

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 2:40 pm GMT

The US dollar was under pressure for a second day while the euro jumped higher in reaction to data showing the flash composite Eurozone PMI numbers rose to a seven month high in August. The better-than-expected business growth data for the euro area lowered the chance of a rate cut by the ECB soon. French PMI data showed upside surprises to the services measure but Germany’s PMI figures were not so good and showed weaker numbers across manufacturing, services and the [..]

Eurozone flash PMI at 7-month high as services rebound

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 11:10 am GMT

Eurozone activity continued to expand at a moderate rate in August, according to Markit’s flash PMI estimate, showing little sign of any immediate negative impact from the Brexit vote. The flash reading of the composite PMI for the euro area rose from 53.2 in July to 53.3 in August – the highest in seven months and above expectations of 53.1. The increase was led by the services sector as manufacturing activity weakened slightly. Eurozone services PMI rose from 52.9 to [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD bullish after breaking above 0.73

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 8:32 am GMT

The technical picture for NZDUSD has been bullish since the pair rose from early 2016 lows of 0.6346 to the 0.73 area in August. The 50 and 200-day moving averages are giving a bullish signal and the RSI is in bullish territory above 50. The medium term picture shows the market was in a range between key psychological levels of 0.7000 and 0.7300. Resistance at 0.7300 has been tested several times and today prices have broken above it again. Only [..]

Asian Session – Kiwi up on RBNZ rate view; Dollar drifts lower in subdued trading

Posted on August 23, 2016 at 8:13 am GMT

The New Zealand dollar was the best performing currency on Tuesday as comments by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler lifted the kiwi in an otherwise muted summer trading session in Asia. In a speech at the Otago Chamber of Commerce, Wheeler reiterated the central bank’s view that further cuts would be needed but warned of the risks of rapid easing. Wheeler said the RBNZ expects rates to be cut by a further 35 basis points in [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY fails to make headway despite upward momentum

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 2:07 pm GMT

GBPJPY remains stuck deep in bearish territory, having made only a very modest recovery from last Tuesday’s six-week low of 129.09. Prices are being capped by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 6-15 upleg from 128.75 to 143.22 at around 131.90. Although there’s been some upside momentum over the past week with the stochastics rising above 50, the gains have been limited and the MACD continues to indicate a bearish bias over the near term. Should the upside [..]

European Session – Euro back above $1.13 as dollar rally fades; oil slips

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 2:04 pm GMT

A light economic calendar during today’s European session led currency moves to be driven by market sentiment, which turned towards risk aversion. Also, overall activity in the market is still light as the August lull led to thin trading conditions. Lack of risk appetite helped the yen gain back some lost ground against the dollar. The greenback had shot up in Asia after Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer added to the recent run of more hawkish Fed speakers. His comments [..]

Oil back in bull market but rally could already be fizzling out

Posted on August 22, 2016 at 1:16 pm GMT

Oil prices have seen an impressive rally of over 20% ever since reports of fresh efforts to revive talks for a production freeze started emerging in early August. The latest rally reversed most of the declines since June when prices briefly broke above $50 a barrel. The six-month long uptrend from January to June that took prices to near one-year highs was partly driven by supply disruptions and declining US output, and partly by the failed negotiations in April to [..]

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