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Japan data fails to provide clear signals to outcome of BoJ policy review

Posted on August 31, 2016 at 11:44 am GMT

At its July policy meeting, the Bank of Japan once again disappointed markets when it left interest rates and its bond buying program unchanged and announced only an increase in the size of its ETF purchases. The decision was accompanied by a statement that said the Bank will conduct a “comprehensive assessment” of the effect of its policies at its upcoming September meeting. This raised speculation the BoJ may be getting ready to rein in its massive stimulus program as [..]

Asian Session – Dollar breaks above 103 yen; BoJ comments add to broader yen weakness

Posted on August 31, 2016 at 8:09 am GMT

Growing expectations that the Fed is poised to raise rates at least once this year lifted the dollar to a one-month high against the yen today. The dollar broke above the 103 level on Monday for the first time since the end of July and extended its gains to 103.27 during today’s Asian session. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer yesterday reiterated Yellen’s views when she spoke in Jackson Hole last Friday that the US labor market is nearing full employment [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY continues rebound but resistance lies ahead at 50-day moving average

Posted on August 31, 2016 at 5:14 am GMT

GBPJPY continues its rebound from the August 16 low of 129.07 to reach 135.11 early on August 31. Upside momentum appears to be strong as RSI has been trending up and has now popped above 50, thereby entering bullish territory. This supports the bullish bias and there is scope for prices to rise further. However, there is immediate resistance provided by the 50-day moving average at 135.35 as well as a Fibonacci level at 135.95. This is the 23.6 % [..]

European Session – Dollar extends gains on firmer rate hike expectations following Fed’s Stanley comments

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 2:48 pm GMT

The US dollar continued its post – Jackson Hole rally after receiving another boost from comments by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer today who firmed rate hike expectations. Speaking on Bloomberg TV today, the US central bank official mostly reiterated his views from Friday when both he and Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the case for a rate increase was strengthening. Markets are now waiting for the next big event on Friday, which is nonfarm payrolls data. The data [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold stuck near one-month lows on ongoing downward pressure

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 12:42 pm GMT

Gold prices moved back towards yesterday’s one-month low of 1314.80 as the rebound that came late on Monday faltered today. RSI has dipped back down again, moving further below 50, indicating increased downward pressure in the near term. Immediate support comes at around the 1315 area and further losses would take prices towards the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels of the May-July upleg from 1199.64 to 1375. A drop below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1308 would be significant as [..]

Asian Session – Dollar rebounds back above 102 yen despite strong Japanese data

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 8:34 am GMT

The dollar rose marginally against major currencies in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors eyed Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The August jobs report out of the US will be closely watched following the recent hawkish tones of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself. The greenback extended its declines at the start of today’s Asian session to hit a low of 101.74 against the yen before reversing to climb to around 102.40 yen in late session. The euro and [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bearish below 100-day moving average

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 4:52 am GMT

EURUSD has retraced half of the upleg from 1.0951 to 1.1365 (July 22 low to August 18 high). Prices have found support at the 50% Fibonacci level of this uptrend, which lies at 1.1158. Near term bias remains on the downside and this is highlighted by the fact that RSI has been trending down and has now dipped below 50 to enter bearish territory. EURUSD has scope to fall deeper towards 1.1108, the 61.8 Fibonacci level. Below this support level, [..]

European Session – Dollar firms on Fed policy outlook after hawkish Yellen

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 3:19 pm GMT

The US dollar remained firm as investors continue to digest comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as other Fed officials at the Jackson Hole summit over the weekend. The key message appeared to be that a policy tightening this year was in play. More US economic data will likely determine if the Fed will hike rates as soon as the September policy meeting. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will definitely play a big role in the Fed’s policy decision but [..]

US personal consumption and income continue to expand at solid rates

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 3:13 pm GMT

Consumer spending in the United States slowed slightly in July but continued to grow at a respectable rate, while personal income rose at the fastest pace in three months. Personal consumption was up 0.3% month-on-month in July, in line with forecasts but down from the previous month’s upwardly revised 0.5% rate. The June figure was initially reported at 0.4%. Personal income also met expectations, rising by 0.4% m/m in July, up from 0.3% in the prior month, which was also revised [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD dips below 50-day moving average

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 9:53 am GMT

AUDUSD fell below the 50-day moving average on Monday, hitting a 4-week low of 0.7524. The stochastics continue to trend down, indicating ongoing downwards pressure in the short-term, but a correction could be near as it treads in oversold territory. Further losses could take prices into the Ichimoku cloud, with support coming around the key 0.75 level. The next support level is the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud at around 0.7410. Coming within close distance below the Ichimoku cloud is [..]

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