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Asian Session – Dollar broadly weaker as markets digest soft US data

Posted on September 16, 2016 at 5:19 am GMT

US data out on Thursday changed expectations for a Fed rate hike and dampened sentiment for the dollar. A batch of disappointing economic data out of the world’s largest economy would likely lower the odds of a rate hike by the US central bank at its policy meeting next week. Risk aversion in Asian markets today helped the yen firm up although volumes were low as many markets in Asia (such as China, Hong Kong and Malaysia) were shut for [..]

European Session – weak data fails to dent US dollar; Bank of England holds as expected

Posted on September 15, 2016 at 2:23 pm GMT

The US dollar proved resilient in the face of some worse-than-expected economic news whereas the Bank of England’s rate-setting meeting confirmed expectations that the Bank would hold off from extra stimulus for now. Retail sales in the United States were broadly weaker in August, as the headline measure contracted by 0.3% whereas the previous month’s rate was revised slightly higher to 0.1%. The retail sales control measure, which excludes certain volatile spending categories and which is closely related to the [..]

Bank of England sees no need to cut rates; signals November cut possible

Posted on September 15, 2016 at 2:04 pm GMT

The Bank of England left rates unchanged after its policy meeting today, as it saw no pressing need to cut again after lowering the benchmark rate last month. However, it did signal a possibility for a cut at the next meeting in November if needed. The minutes of the meeting said that there was evidence the initial impact of its August stimulus measures was encouraging. The immediate hit to Britain’s economy after the Brexit vote in June appears to be [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD back below 0.73; overall bullish structure maintained in rising channel

Posted on September 15, 2016 at 7:32 am GMT

NZDUSD rallied to multi-month highs last week to hit 0.7484 after successfully breaking above a key resistance level at 0.7300. The pair was unable to sustain gains above this level and has fallen back below it. This level is now being tested and is acting as a resistance level again. Looking at the bigger picture, NZDUSD remains bound within an ascending channel thereby maintaining its year-long bullish market structure (uptrend since January low of 0.6346). A break below important support area [..]

Asian Session – Aussie falls after Australian jobs data; pound steady ahead of BOE

Posted on September 15, 2016 at 5:35 am GMT

The Australian employment report was the main data in focus during Thursday’s Asian session. It was a mixed report showing that the economy lost 3,900 jobs in August, compared with a revised gain of 25,300 in July (previously 26,200). The figure was contrary to economists’ expectations for a gain of 15,000 jobs. The Aussie initially dropped after the data to touch a session low of $0.7445 before steadying to $0.7468 as investors were satisfied by the fact that the unemployment [..]

European Session – Yen bounces back while pound falls despite decent UK employment numbers

Posted on September 14, 2016 at 2:39 pm GMT

The yen bounced back, while the pound resumed its fall despite a positive employment report during Wednesday’s European session. Euro / dollar continued to be flat due to an absence of major data or risk events for the world’s two largest economies; the Eurozone and the United States. Dollar / yen dropped back below 103 to 102.70 as doubts emerged concerning the validity of a report published in Japan’s major business newspaper about the Bank of Japan pursuing negative rates [..]

Will the yen retain its year-long trend after BoJ meeting next week?

Posted on September 14, 2016 at 1:48 pm GMT

The yen has appreciated in value quite substantially this year, gaining over 10% against the dollar so far. Weak global asset prices and uncertainty in the financial markets tend to support the Japanese currency which is seen as a safe haven. A big risk to the yen will be the Bank of Japan policy meeting next week. There is growing speculation that the Bank may cut its interest rates further into negative territory. The BoJ first introduced negative rates on [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY finds strong support at 50-day moving average; neutral near term bias

Posted on September 14, 2016 at 7:26 am GMT

GBPJPY maintains a neutral bias in the near term. The market has been consolidating after falling out of a rising channel and finding support at the 50-day moving average around the key 135.00 level. This is a strong support zone as it is also near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from the August 16 low of 129.07 to September 2 high of 138.82. If this support area is broken to the downside, there is scope for a [..]

Asian Session – Yen adds to losses on speculation of deeper negative rates

Posted on September 14, 2016 at 5:35 am GMT

The yen was one of the worst performing major currencies during the Asian session on Wednesday after the currency weakened in reaction to a Nikkei newspaper report that the Bank of Japan may cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. The Japanese currency added to yesterday’s losses when it weakened 0.7% and it softened 0.6% in Asian trading today. The US dollar rose to a session high of 103.18 yen, marking a fresh one-week high. The diverging monetary policies of [..]

European Session – pound falls on inflation miss, dollar recovers after dovish Fed speech

Posted on September 13, 2016 at 2:30 pm GMT

The pound dropped on softer-than-expected inflation numbers out of the UK, while the US dollar staged a recovery from a dovish speech from a Fed official the previous day. The euro was not particularly moved by a weak ZEW German investor sentiment survey, while the Aussie failed to benefit from strong Chinese data released earlier during the Asian session. Today’s trading was dominated by the recovery in the US dollar, which was hurt the previous day following a dovish speech [..]

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