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Technical Analysis – Commodities summer consolidation extends into September

Posted on September 20, 2016 at 12:39 pm GMT

Despite some large daily moves, commodities have largely stuck to a range during most of the summer as the big rally of the first half of the year has stalled. Among the major commodities, oil has been unable to surpass its June peak, while gold remains one of the most bullish even though it’s been in steady retreat since its July peak. Oil stuck in bearish mode WTI oil futures have been making lower highs since the January-June uptrend was [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD neutral between 50 and 200-day moving averages

Posted on September 20, 2016 at 7:41 am GMT

The big decline that took place from the 0.7700 area down below the 0.7500 level this month has ended with AUDUSD bouncing back up and now finding support at the 200-day moving average at 0.7475. With RSI rising, upside momentum could increase if it breaks above 50, giving scope for the market to extend gains. However, there is resistance at the 50-day moving average at 0.7580 which would likely be strong enough to cap any further advance. AUDUSD is expected [..]

Asian Session – Nervousness ahead of BoJ and Fed keeping markets subdued

Posted on September 20, 2016 at 5:36 am GMT

Markets were subdued as caution set in ahead of the highly-anticipated policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan following a two-day meeting that concludes on Wednesday. The yen was weaker today as the Tokyo equity markets were up while investors count down to the BoJ decision and there is optimism that the Bank will take some action at this meeting. Unlike the Fed, a move on rates by the BoJ is expected and the odds for [..]

European Session – Dollar drifts lower but aussie and kiwi shine as oil rallies

Posted on September 19, 2016 at 3:04 pm GMT

Currency markets remained subdued in today’s European session as traders took a cautious line ahead of this week’s Fed and Bank of Japan meetings and in the absence of major data releases. The dollar continued to slip against the yen, breaking below the key 102 level, while a rebound in oil prices boosted equities and commodity-linked currencies. The dollar index was down 0.4% in late European session at 95.70 as traders bet that the Fed will keep rates on hold [..]

Technical Analysis – Germany 30 Index looking neutral around 50-DMA; struggles to regain momentum

Posted on September 19, 2016 at 12:41 pm GMT

The German 30 cash index found support at the lower Bollinger band today just below 10300 but the rebound was not strong enough to take it back above the 50-day moving average after closing below it yesterday. The index has been hovering around the 50-day moving average for nearly a week now as the positive bias from the post-Brexit rally continues to wane after forming a double top. However, today’s bullish crossover of the stochastics suggests a near-term rebound may [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY stays in range, capped by 50-day moving average

Posted on September 19, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

USDJPY continues to trade in a range, thus keeping a neutral bias for the short term. After rebounding from the 100 yen area on August 26, the pair rose to briefly peak above the 104 yen level. It reached a high of 104.31 on September 2. Since then, the market has pulled back and is now pivoting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (102.20) of the recent August to September rise. The RSI is flat and hugging the 50 level, which [..]

Asian Session – Oil rises on output freeze hopes; aussie outperforms after China data

Posted on September 19, 2016 at 5:23 am GMT

It was a fairly quiet Asian session as Tokyo was on holiday today and the economic calendar was light. The yen saw some strength as it was supported by the demand for safe haven assets. Investors are being cautious ahead of key risk events this week, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan holding policy meetings. The dollar/yen pair edged lower to 101.98 yen, trimming its gains made on Friday after US inflation data. CPI beat expectations to rise 0.2% [..]

European Session – Dollar rallies on strong inflation numbers

Posted on September 16, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

The US dollar posted some strong gains today, following the release of data showing price pressures building up in the US economy. The yen also posted some gains versus the pound and the euro, as it traded below the 134 and 114 levels respectively. Euro / dollar fell to its lowest since September 6, falling below the 1.12 level to 1.1166. Dollar / yen did not rise as much, with the dollar retaking the 102 handle to trade around 102.15. [..]

Week Ahead – All eyes on Fed and BoJ rate decisions, PMI data

Posted on September 16, 2016 at 2:02 pm GMT

The big focus next week will be on two critical central bank meetings in the US and Japan. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings and their decisions are due on Wednesday. The first announcement will come from the BoJ late in the Asian session while the FOMC decision comes out late in the US session. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen during the news conference that will take place after the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD neutral and stuck below key 1.1300 level

Posted on September 16, 2016 at 7:27 am GMT

For the past two weeks, EURUSD has been neutral but the underlying market structure is bullish in the medium term, as the pair rose from 1.0951 (July 25) to 1.1365 (August 18) and is now consolidating this move. Following a 50% retracement of this upleg, the pair found support at the 50-day and 200-day moving average (around 1.1130). Prices subsequently bounced higher but found strong resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1268. The near term bias is now [..]

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