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Asian Session – Oil rebounds ahead of OPEC talks; dollar subdued as focus shifts to US Presidential debate

Posted on September 26, 2016 at 5:00 am GMT

It was a relatively subdued trading session on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of a debate between US presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The first of three televised debates will take place at 9pm Eastern Time later today in the US. The slight risk aversion in the currency markets resulted in the yen being the best performer among major currencies. The dollar traded a range of 100.70 – 101.06 yen in Asia. Meanwhile there was cautious trading [..]

European Session – Dollar firms on Fed’s Rosengren remarks; Loonie plunges on data miss

Posted on September 23, 2016 at 2:42 pm GMT

Eurozone flash PMIs dominated the start of European trading today but reaction was muted and attention soon turned to Canadian data which triggered a sell-off of the loonie. The US dollar meanwhile was lifted from some very hawkish comments from Fed policymaker, Eric Rosengren. Flash PMI readings for the Eurozone showed manufacturing activity picking up a gear in September but services activity slowing. Manufacturing activity was boosted by rising export orders but the services sector expanded at the weakest pace [..]

Week Ahead – Busy week for Japan and US data; Central bank speeches also in focus

Posted on September 23, 2016 at 12:56 pm GMT

Economic indicators out of the Eurozone, Japan and the United States will dominate next week’s calendar. But it will also be a busy seven days for central bank speeches, with Draghi, Kuroda and Yellen all due to speak. Eurozone business surveys and flash CPI eyed The week will start with the closely watched German Ifo survey on Monday. The Ifo business climate index unexpectedly dipped last month, raising fears of a delayed post-Brexit blow to business confidence in Germany. The [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP consolidation eyes upside to 0.87

Posted on September 23, 2016 at 7:06 am GMT

The euro / pound exchange rate has recently rallied as sterling has been weak due to renewed concerns about the impact of Brexit. The pair made a local high of 0.8630 on Tuesday, leading to overbought conditions (RSI climbed above 70) and a subsequent correction and consolidation. The overall trend has remained bullish as price action is comfortably above the 50-period moving average. The pair traded as low as 0.8560 and this is a very short-term support which has been [..]

Asian session – Yen weakens after Suga comments; kiwi extends losses on RBNZ rate cut expectations

Posted on September 23, 2016 at 5:55 am GMT

The US dollar extended gains versus the yen for a second day but is on track for a weekly loss due to a slightly more dovish Federal Reserve at its policy meeting earlier this week. The Fed signaled that the pace of any further rate hikes going forward will likely be even slower and more gradual than previously forecast and this led to a retrenchment in the dollar index and a rally in equity markets this week. US data out [..]

European Session – Dollar rebounds modestly against yen but sags against euro, pound

Posted on September 22, 2016 at 3:00 pm GMT

The US dollar steadied in European trading on Thursday having earlier slid to a 4-week low against the yen following yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The euro and the pound continued to advance higher against the dollar however, adding to yesterday’s gains when the dollar fell after the Fed lowered its longer-run rate outlook even as it signalled one rate hike before the year-end. The euro hit a one-week high of 1.1257 dollars as there was little else apart from the FOMC [..]

RBNZ holds rates, kiwi holds above $0.73 despite jawboning

Posted on September 22, 2016 at 2:09 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its decision to keep interest rates steady after a policy meeting on Thursday. The decision to hold the OCR at 2% was widely expected but the central bank signalled that further easing would be needed. One reason was the Bank’s focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2% target midpoint. The Bank’s range is 1 to 3%. The kiwi’s strength has been making it difficult for the RBNZ to meet its inflation objective. [..]

Technical Analysis – US 30 index drifts below 50-DMA as it consolidates after record high

Posted on September 22, 2016 at 11:14 am GMT

The US 30 stock index touched an all-time high of 18667.50 on August 15 but has been steadily drifting lower since, falling below the 50-day moving average. The recent consolidation has weakened the positive outlook for the index as it has headed back into the Ichimoku cloud. The short- to medium-term picture in the daily chart is therefore looking more neutral, though the underlying longer-term trend remains bullish as indicated by the upward trending 200-day moving average. The index is [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD maintains bullish trend, supported by 50-day moving average

Posted on September 22, 2016 at 7:39 am GMT

NZDUSD maintains the underlying bullish trend that started from the January low of 0.6346 to the September high of 0.7484. The market reached overbought levels at this peak as is indicated by RSI which rose to 70. Upside momentum in the market clearly faded and prices dropped but the reversal failed to gain traction and stalled just above the 50-day moving average, which acted as support. Immediate support lies at the key 0.7300 level. Below this the 50-day moving average [..]

Asian Session – Dollar weakens, gold rallies as Fed sees no rush to hike rates

Posted on September 22, 2016 at 5:27 am GMT

There was broad dollar weakness during Asian trading on Thursday which followed through from the late US session when the greenback softened after the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay a rate hike. The FOMC concluded a two-day meeting on Wednesday with a decision to hold the federal funds rate unchanged between 0.25%-0.50%. While the Fed was in no rush to hike rates in September it did however suggest that further rate hikes were to come soon and gave strong hints [..]

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