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Technical Analysis – EURUSD could test 1.0950 as it starts to look bearish

Posted on October 11, 2016 at 7:55 am GMT

EURUSD has been very range-bound throughout 2016 and despite being the no.1 traded pair of foreign exchange, it has provided little excitement for active traders. Euro / dollar has been consolidating since March of 2015, following a severe drop when a low of 1.0460 was reached. The latest technical indications for this popular pair are negative. Specifically, price has crossed below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages during the past few days – despite the fact that the [..]

Asian Session – US dollar makes up payroll losses; sterling drops once more

Posted on October 11, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

The dollar made up all the losses in view of Friday’s softer-than-expected employment report, as optimism returned about the health of the US economy and the increasing probability of a December rate hike. Sterling on the other hand was losing the ground it regained following the flash crash on concerns about the impact of Brexit. In economic data, Japan’s current account surplus climbed to 2 trillion yen in August, higher than economists’ expectations of a 1.5 trillion figure. The higher figure [..]

European Session – Oil back above $50 helps petrocurrencies while dollar continues to rebound

Posted on October 10, 2016 at 2:05 pm GMT

The US dollar continued to regain ground following Friday’s employment-related modest losses, while oil surged on encouraging news that the recent OPEC deal to reduce output would be implemented by Russia as well. It was a rather quiet day in terms of economic news as both Japan and the United States were effectively on holiday. The main item of economic news was the Sentix investor sentiment index out of the Eurozone which showed a rise to 8.5 in October from [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil futures drop back from 50; still positive but will they break out?

Posted on October 10, 2016 at 7:53 am GMT

Oil has rallied hard since the end of September, leading price to top 50 for the first time in more than three months. However, it did not have enough strength to break the 51.65 early June high. Therefore oil stayed in the 40-51 dollar range that has been in place since around mid-April this year. According to the Ichimoku analysis, oil’s prospects are positive and it should test the 51.65 high soon. Price is well above the cloud and the [..]

Asian Session – US dollar stabilizes following payrolls; Mexican peso helped by Trump recording

Posted on October 10, 2016 at 7:06 am GMT

The US dollar managed to hold its ground following slightly disappointing payrolls numbers on Friday, while the Mexican peso gained following the release of a tape containing lewd comments about women by US Presidential candidate Donald Trump. The US dollar did not extend its losses following Friday’s employment report, which reduced the chances of a rate hike in November. The case for a rate hike in December did remain strong however. A holiday in Tokyo led to reduced liquidity in [..]

European Session – Lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls lead to dollar profit-taking

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 2:47 pm GMT

There was profit-taking on the dollar’s significant gains this week, after both the nonfarm payrolls number as well as the US unemployment rate came on the disappointing side of expectations. Dollar / yen, which was as high as 103.97 earlier during the Asian session dipped to as low as 102.85 in the wake of the employment data. The dollar was struggling to hold on to the 103 mark and was last trading at 103.01 yen. Euro / dollar also rebounded [..]

Week Ahead – US retail sales, Yellen speech and Chinese trade to attract attention

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 1:38 pm GMT

Given this week’s major events such as nonfarm payrolls, the twin ISM surveys out of the US and the steep drop in the British pound, next week will likely be calmer. Thursday and Friday could see more action due to US retail sales, Chinese trade balance and a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. US: Retail sales and Yellen speech At the beginning of the week, the Columbus day holiday in the United States could lead to thin trading conditions during North American trading [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY near 4-year low; looks to extend losses

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 8:07 am GMT

The pound / yen cross is one of the more volatile pairs between major currencies and therefore one of the favorites of active traders. GBPJPY looked to be in a downtrend even before the June 23rd Brexit vote which hit sterling hard and drove the pair from 157 yen to around 133. The post-Brexit low – until last night – was 128.75 which was tested on July 6 and August 16. Due to the irregular trading conditions of the previous [..]

Asian Session – Pound trade “chaotic” after it breaks through major levels; currency rebounds later

Posted on October 7, 2016 at 7:09 am GMT

The British pound plunged to as low as 1.1378 against the US dollar during early Asian trading only to rebound to around 1.24 on worries that a “hard” Brexit would damage the UK economy. After the pound broke through 1.26, 1.25 and 1.24, the floor seemed to disappear and there were no buyers in the market – possibly as a result of aggressive algorithmic trading. The incident also happened while Asian trading conditions were relatively thin. Euro / pound also [..]

European Session – Dollar rallies ahead of Friday’s employment report

Posted on October 6, 2016 at 1:53 pm GMT

The US dollar was again the big winner today, as the drop of weekly jobless claims to near a 43-year low encouraged dollar bulls who bought the greenback even on the day before the all-important employment report. The dollar made a 4-week high against the yen at 103.88, while the aussie was pushed back to 0.7568. The pound was searching for a bottom versus the US dollar as heavy selling drove it to as low as 1.2625 – further down [..]

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