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European Session – Dollar and oil firmer after data; Sterling awaits Q3 GDP above $1.22

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 2:53 pm GMT

Weaker crude oil prices weighed on market sentiment in Wednesday’s European session as energy stocks were dragged lower even as the dollar eased from yesterday’s near 9-month highs. Crude oil extended yesterday’s losses as investors grew sceptical whether major oil producers would be able to agree to significant measures next month that would help reduce the supply glut. Oil also came under pressure yesterday from Tuesday’s API inventory data that showed US crude stocks rose by more than expected last [..]

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US dollar index hits fresh 8-month peak; brings it within reach of a 13-year high

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 2:09 pm GMT

The US dollar index reached its highest since early February on Tuesday at 99.11.  From its August low of 94, the dollar index has therefore rallied more than 5%.  The US dollar is now tantalizingly close to the 100.51 high of December 2015.  If it manages to overcome this level, it would be a fresh 13-year high for the greenback.  Such a development would certainly be a major event for foreign exchange markets in 2016.  It would also mark a [..]

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Australian inflation rises by more than expected; aussie jumps on data

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 11:31 am GMT

Inflation in Australia rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year as food prices pushed up the headline figure. Expectations were for CPI to rise by 1.1% y/y in the third quarter and is up from the 1.0% rate of the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, CPI increased by 0.7% versus estimates of a 0.5% gain, driven higher by a sharp rise in fruit and vegetable prices. The Australian dollar jumped 0.8% to a [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 30 stock index turning short-term bearish

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 8:31 am GMT

Following an all-time high of 18,667 in mid-August, the US 30 stock index has retraced some of its gains and is currently at 18,124 – 2.9% off its high.  There have been some short-term negative developments lately as price is now below the cloud and there has been a negative crossover of the Tenkan-sen line with the Kijun-sen (on October 17).  Price is currently below both the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen lines.  The Relative Strength Index is also giving a [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar drops after Tuesday’s high; aussie shines on inflation

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 7:29 am GMT

The US dollar was under some profit-taking following a fresh 9-month high for the dollar index the previous day.  The Australian dollar was strong on better-than-expected inflation, while sterling bounced back from its lows after Carney’s comments the previous day. The US dollar was on the defensive during Wednesday’s Asian session after the dollar index hit a high of 99.11 the previous day on expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates before the end of the year.  Some profit-taking on the [..]

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European Session – Dollar hits 3-month high vs yen as pound tumbles

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 2:58 pm GMT

Risk appetite increased further in Tuesday’s European session as better-than-expected survey data out of Germany underlined the improving economic outlook for the Eurozone as well as for the global economy. Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to a 2½-year high of 110.5 in October, beating forecasts that it would stay unchanged at 109.5. The Ifo current conditions and expectations indices also increased to 2½-year highs and were significantly above consensus estimates. German and Eurozone business sentiment had taken a hit [..]

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Eurozone business confidence jumps in October but euro capped below $1.09

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 11:36 am GMT

Business confidence is on the rise across the Eurozone according to the latest survey data from Markit and Germany’s Ifo Institute. Flash PMI readings out yesterday showed Eurozone economic activity expanding at the fastest pace in 10 months, while the Ifo’s survey for Germany showed business sentiment was at a 2½-year high. The Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors both performed strongly in October, rebounding from a mild slowdown during the summer months. Uncertainty surrounding Britain’s decision to leave the EU [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDCAD Daily makes 7-month high as its breaks out of 1.27-1.33 range

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 7:55 am GMT

USDCAD daily has managed to break out of the 5-month old range of 1.27-1.33 during the previous sessions, as it tested 1.34 by trading up to 1.3396 (Monday’s high and the highest since March). The pair is looking positive as it is trading above the 200-day average (1.3134) and the Relative Strength Index is also bullish at 60. Performing a Fibonacci analysis on the down move from 1.4690 (January high) to 1.2460 (March low), the pair is currently around the [..]

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Asian Session – Yen loses ground on positive risk sentiment

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 7:15 am GMT

The yen retreated against its major peers on Tuesday, as risk appetite was relatively positive and trading was quiet, which reduced appetite for the safe haven currency. Dollar / yen managed to surpass 104; a level that served as resistance in previous sessions as positive sentiment about the greenback continued.  Two developments helped the greenback the previous day.  First of all, the Markit manufacturing PMI for October came in at 53.2 versus 51.5 expected – the highest in 12 months.  Secondly, Chicago [..]

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European Session – Dollar near 9-month high while euro firms on strong Eurozone PMIs

Posted on October 24, 2016 at 3:11 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively subdued on the week’s first day of trading as most major pairs were stuck within their recent trading range. The euro had slid back to a 7½-month low of 1.0858 dollars earlier in the Asian session as it continued to come under pressure from the diverging policies of the Fed and the European Central Bank. However, stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI figures at the start of European trading lifted the single currency back towards the 1.09 level. Markit’s [..]

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