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Bank of Japan cuts inflation forecasts and delays hitting target

Posted on November 1, 2016 at 11:30 am GMT

The Bank of Japan ended its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday by refraining from further action following the measures taken at its September meeting. As expected, the Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at -0.1% and the size of its asset purchases at an annual pace of ‘more or less’ 80 trillion yen with the objective of maintaining the yield on 10-year JGBs at around 0%. The Bank had introduced the unconventional policy of ‘yield curve control’ at its last [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold maintains uptrend as RSI bounces out of oversold levels

Posted on November 1, 2016 at 8:58 am GMT

Gold prices remain in an uptrend that started from October 7, maintaining a bullish outlook in the short term. Last month prices rose steadily making higher highs and higher lows.   A high of $1284.05 was reached last week on Friday but the market was capped by the Bollinger Band this week. Resistance lies at the upper band at around $1280.   The market remains bullish as RSI has the possibility for further upside momentum. As seen on the daily [..]

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Asian Session – Aussie surges as RBA holds policy and China PMI jumps

Posted on November 1, 2016 at 7:15 am GMT

News and data out during Tuesday’s Asian session kept sentiment upbeat. The Australian dollar saw some notable moves due to strong China manufacturing PMI data and a decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold policy steady. Both sets of October manufacturing PMI data out of China beat forecasts and this also helped support the aussie since China is a major trading partner of Australia. The final Caixin manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.2, well above the expected 50.2 and [..]

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European Session – Dollar reclaims 105 yen level but euro unfazed by Eurozone CPI and GDP data

Posted on October 31, 2016 at 3:12 pm GMT

Trading remained cautious in today’s European session as investors assessed the potential damage to Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the US elections following the fallout from the FBI’s decision to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails. The US dollar extended its rebound from the Asian session to reclaim the 105 level against the yen. Adding support to the greenback today were solid consumer spending data which come on top of Friday’s better-than-expected GDP data. The recovering dollar pulled other majors [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY looking bullish but will it break 99-107 range?

Posted on October 31, 2016 at 9:14 am GMT

USDJPY has had a very positive run since successfully holding the 100 level on September 27.  The dollar had traded as low as 99.53 versus the yen back around mid-August.  Those levels, which also represent 3-year lows have managed to hold for now. Because of the month-long rally in dollar / yen, the medium-term picture has now turned more positive.  Price action is above the cloud, which is bullish, while the Tenkan-sen line has crossed above the Kijun-sen line since [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar recovers from lows following FBI warrant for Clinton emails

Posted on October 31, 2016 at 8:44 am GMT

The US dollar was off the lows hit on Friday after revelations that new evidence had surfaced in the Clinton email investigation, which brought fresh uncertainty for the US elections. Euro / dollar dipped back to 1.0960 whereas dollar / yen recovered close to 105 yen at 104.90.  Euro / dollar had reached just below 1.10 in the aftermath of the news that compromised Clinton while dollar / yen reached as low as 104.36.  Economic news out of Japan was not supportive [..]

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European Session – UK GDP defies Brexit gloom but unable to lift pound; Dollar breaks above 105 yen

Posted on October 27, 2016 at 3:09 pm GMT

The US dollar remained underpinned by Fed rate hike expectations as it hit a fresh 3-month high against the yen in today’s European session, while the pound was unable to break above its recent range after UK growth beat expectations. The British economy defied fears of a Brexit-induced slowdown to grow by 0.5% q/q in the third quarter, only moderately weaker than the 0.7% rate of the second quarter. Expectations were for UK growth to more than halve to 0.3%. [..]

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Week Ahead – Central banks dominate as Fed, BoJ, BoE and RBA meet ahead of NFP report

Posted on October 27, 2016 at 1:19 pm GMT

The coming week will be dominated by central bank meetings as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia all hold their regular policy meetings. There will be no shortage of economic data either as Eurozone flash inflation and GDP figures are due along with the Markit/CIPS PMIs for the UK. But US data may grab the most attention as it will include personal consumption expenditure numbers, ISM surveys and [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD consolidating after drop

Posted on October 27, 2016 at 7:55 am GMT

GBPUSD made a fresh 31-year low of 1.2088 on October 11 and on October 25, 1.2081 was hit.  Currently the pair seems to be consolidating in the 1.2080-1.2370 range. The prospects for the pound are still negative as price is below the cloud and the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned.  More recently however, there is an attempt to climb above the Tenkan-sen, which is at 1.2205.  The next target of any sustained upside correction for the pair could [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar steady as market awaits GDP numbers tomorrow

Posted on October 27, 2016 at 7:27 am GMT

The US dollar was well-bid as 10-year Treasury yields reached 4½-month highs during the past couple of days.  The 10-year yield in the United States was at 1.80% having reached as low as 1.32% back in early July in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.  The rise in Treasury yields was due to renewed confidence that the Fed would soon resume to raise rates. Euro / dollar however was still narrowly holding on to the 1.09 mark by trading at [..]

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