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Technical Analysis – USDJPY Monthly: fresh 5-year highs as dollar move looks stretched

Posted on December 19, 2013 at 10:03 am GMT

[caption id="attachment_12167" align="alignnone" width="550"] (Click to enlarge)[/caption] On the back of the Fed decision, the US dollar broke to a fresh 5-year high versus the yen, having traded at a level of 104.35. This is the highest for the US dollar since October of 2008. In order to derive some guidance for possible future targets should the dollar uptrend continue, the long-term monthly chart can offer some clues. The first target could be the high that was registered during August [..]

Asian Session – Light profit-taking by dollar longs after strong up-move on Fed

Posted on December 19, 2013 at 7:51 am GMT

The US dollar gave back some ground after hitting new 5-year record highs against the yen at 104.35 following the Fed’s decision to reduce its monthly bond buying program by 10 billion dollars to 75 billion. The dollar fell back 0.33% to 103.92 yen during the Asian session. Another factor that could have been depressing the yen was the very positive risk sentiment that the Fed’s move created. Investors interpreted the decision as a sign of confidence in the prospects [..]

Forex news – Japanese trade balance worsening on weak yen

Posted on December 18, 2013 at 2:37 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12135" align="alignnone" width="550"] (Click to enlarge)[/caption] Whereas Japan was the country of chronic trade surpluses until recently, this situation has definitely reversed during the past 2 years. Japan posted a 1.29 trillion yen trade deficit during November, which was better than expectations of a 1.32 billion shortfall and a 1.09 trillion deficit registered in October. Imports increased by 21.1% year-on-year, mainly as a result of the weak yen and a related huge energy bill that Japan is facing after [..]

European Session – Pound rallies on strong employment data

Posted on December 18, 2013 at 1:49 pm GMT

The pound posted a strong performance during today’s European trading, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped below 7.5%. UK October unemployment came in at 7.4%, lower than 7.6% expected. 7.6% was also the unemployment rate of the previous month. The 7.4% rate was even closer to the 7% threshold set by the Bank of England as a prerequisite for tightening monetary policy. It was not all good news for sterling however, since the Bank of England minutes showed that the [..]

Technical Analysis – S&P 500, Daily: modest correction after all-time highs

Posted on December 18, 2013 at 11:09 am GMT

[caption id="attachment_12120" align="alignnone" width="550"] (Click to enlarge)[/caption] The S&P 500 made fresh all-time highs at the end of November, continuing the string of new highs it has been making since April of 2013, when it broke the old pre-crisis high of 2007, the 1576 level. Following the new highs just above 1811, a modest correction has followed, driving the S&P back by around 1.5%. The uptrend is still in place. Should the correction continue, a number of levels are likely [..]

Asian session – Dollar, euro up versus yen as Japan reports trade deficit

Posted on December 18, 2013 at 7:51 am GMT

The dollar gained against the yen, recouping the losses of the previous US session during which the pair traded as low as 102.49. The dollar rose 0.27% to 102.94, having risen slightly above 103 yen previously. The euro also managed to gain against the yen, posting a gain of 0.33% to trade at 141.78. In economic news, the Japanese trade deficit for November was slightly smaller-than-expected at 1.29 trillion yen. It did mark however more than a year of consecutive [..]

Forex news – Eurozone inflation rises despite falling energy costs

Posted on December 17, 2013 at 3:48 pm GMT

[caption id="attachment_12086" align="alignnone" width="550"] (Click to enlarge)[/caption] Annual Eurozone inflation rose to 0.9% in November, in line with expectations and up from October’s 0.7% year-on-year rate. October was the first month since February of 2010 that inflation was under 1% and this had caused some concern that the Eurozone was heading for –if not deflation – at least disinflation. Persistently low inflation could push the ECB towards undertaking additional monetary stimulus. ECB President Mario Draghi said that inflation too low [..]

European Session – Dollar mixed ahead of Fed, euro flat on inflation, ZEW

Posted on December 17, 2013 at 1:58 pm GMT

The euro lost some ground against the dollar during today’s European trading, falling by 0.17% to trade at 1.3747. Eurozone inflation for November was announced in line with expectations at 0.9% year-on-year, slightly elevated from the 0.7% of the previous month. Month-on-month inflation dropped by 0.1%. Deflation is not a serious cause of concern for the Eurozone, according to ECB President Mario Draghi during testimony before the European Parliament. However, the ECB does stand ready to act if inflation stays [..]

Technical Analysis – OIL FEB 14, 4-Hourly: December uptrend seen pushing to resistance retest

Posted on December 17, 2013 at 10:06 am GMT

[caption id="attachment_12067" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] Following range-bound trading during November, light sweet oil for February 2014 delivery broke through the 95.60 level during a powerful upmove on December 3-4. The momentum from that move led to a 1 ½ month high at 98.74, where it found resistance. 98.74 is the target any rally continuation would like to retest. The subsequent pullback led to the formation of a low at 96.25, from which there was a rebound. Indeed between [..]

Asian session – Yen flat near lows as market expects Fed

Posted on December 17, 2013 at 7:30 am GMT

The yen was mostly flat during today’s Asian session. The dollar was little changed against the Japanese currency at 102.98, while the euro gained slightly by 0.07% to trade at 141.82 yen. The euro was also slightly stronger against the dollar, up 0.08% to trade at 1.3771. The euro was helped by the previous day’s news that business confidence in Eurozone was better-than-expected during December. During the US session, industrial output for the United States during November surpassed expectations, coming [..]

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