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Technical Analysis – Gold looking bullish in rising channel

Posted on February 12, 2014 at 9:11 am GMT

Gold is looking bullish and has formed a rising channel. The market appears to have carved out a base at the December 31 low of 1182.16. The daily chart indicates there has been a relatively strong upside momentum since the bounce off this low. A catalyst for the upside-move occurred when prices broke above the 100-day moving average which was acting as a resistance level around 1270. This area was also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the down-leg from [..]

Asian Session –China trade surplus lifts Australian dollar

Posted on February 12, 2014 at 8:08 am GMT

Market focus was on strong trade data from China on Wednesday, which helped lift risk sentiment as the slowdown in growth in the second largest global economy was not as bad as feared. China reported the widest trade surplus since January since 2009, as its exports beat expectations by far and rose 10.6% compared to a year earlier. Forecasts were for a mere 0.1% increase. Imports rose by 10%. The resulting trade surplus came in at $31.9 billion. The upbeat [..]

European Session – Dollar rebounds after Yellen signals continuity ion Fed tapering

Posted on February 11, 2014 at 2:58 pm GMT

There were no fundamental data releases during the European session on Tuesday so the anticipation of Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony was the main market focus. The dollar was predominantly weaker leading into Yellen’s first testimony since she took office on February 3, and was to appear in front of the House Financial Services Committee at the US Congress. Following the release of Yellen’s prepared testimony at 1330 GMT in which she emphasized the continuity of the Fed’s monetary policy, the [..]

Forex News – Rising confidence in Australian business and housing

Posted on February 11, 2014 at 10:09 am GMT

Confidence in Australia’s business sector appears to be on the rise while the housing sector is also showing signs of improvement. This was welcome news, especially since the important mining sector has been on the decline and putting a dent in the economy. According to the National Australia Bank (NAB) monthly business conditions survey, overall confidence rose to a near-3-year high in January. The index rose to +4 in January from +3 in December, the highest since March 2011. Meanwhile, [..]

Technical Analysis – S&P stalls at key 1800 level

Posted on February 11, 2014 at 8:10 am GMT

The S&P paused its long-term rally after reaching all-time highs at 1845.75 on January 2. This level proved to be tough resistance to breach and after stalling around this level for a few weeks, prices fell, breaking below the 50-day moving average and below the key 1800 psychological level. The S&P found strong support around 1740, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the up-leg from October 9 (1639.38) to the January 2 high (1845.75). The market then bounced [..]

Asian Session – Dollar under pressure versus euro before Yellen

Posted on February 11, 2014 at 7:40 am GMT

The dollar found itself under pressure against the euro and the pound in today’s trading, ahead of the testimony of new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen before select committees of the US congress. The euro gained 0.11% to trade at 1.3659 against the dollar while the pound was up 0.10% at 1.6417. Trading conditions were thin as Japanese markets were closed due to a bank holiday. Yellen is expected to repeat the Fed’s mantra that tapering will continue as long [..]

Forex News – Japanese current account deficit drops to worst on record in December 2013

Posted on February 10, 2014 at 3:07 pm GMT

(click to enlarge)Japan has historically been an economy that produces huge trade surpluses and therefore enjoys current account surpluses. This in turn has allowed the government and businesses in Japan to enjoy very low interest rates because of the excess savings of Japanese households. However, during December of 2013, the country registered its worst ever current account deficit at 638.6 billion yen. Economists expected the deficit to be around 700 billion yen. November’s deficit was at 592 billion yen. The [..]

European Session – Dollar broadly weaker as Yellen testimony comes into focus

Posted on February 10, 2014 at 2:43 pm GMT

The economic calendar was light on Monday, giving currency markets the chance to focus on key risk events coming up later in the week. Investors will particularly be interested in Yellen’s first semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee and thus moved their focus away from Friday’s soft payrolls report. Investors digested the details of the data which showed weather-sensitive jobs like construction in fact did well in the period the data was studying. The unemployment [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY downward bias

Posted on February 10, 2014 at 9:23 am GMT

USDJPY looks bearish on the daily chart as the pair has been carving out lower peaks and lower troughs since the beginning of 2014. After retracing 50% of the up-leg from the October 25 low (96.93) to the January 2 high (105.43), the pair rebounded off lows of 100.74 to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.20. MACD dropped below the zero line which is a bearish signal. Momentum is weak as indicated by the RSI which has been [..]

Asian Session – Dollar rebounds against yen despite disappointing US payrolls

Posted on February 10, 2014 at 7:36 am GMT

The Asian currency markets got a first chance to react to the US nonfarm payrolls report from last Friday. The tepid response to the softer-than-expected numbers was a little surprising, which indicates that investors continue to expect the Fed will remain on course with tapering. The rise of 113,000 new jobs for January was short of economists’’ forecasts of an increase of a 185,000 increase but the details were not bad enough to impact investors’ opinion that the Fed will [..]

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