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Technical Analysis – Gold bullish above 1300

Posted on February 24, 2014 at 8:56 am GMT

Bullish sentiment on gold has returned after prices crossed back above the key 1300 level on February 14. The market remains above the 200-day moving average which is acting as an important support level around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1307.40) of the move from the August high (1433.51) down to the December low (1182.16). Should the current support level fail (1307.40), further support comes in at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1277.93 and then the 23.6% level at 1240.88. [..]

Asian Session – Yen gains, euro steady ahead of German Ifo

Posted on February 24, 2014 at 7:43 am GMT

The trading week started slow with most currency pairs stuck in ranges. The G20 meetings over the weekend had nothing major that would impact currency markets. The main theme of the meeting was to increase global growth. Asian equity markets declined, led by the fall in China’s stocks due to some negative news regarding China’s property market. The Nikkei fell and the yen rose against most major counterparts. The yen’s direction will be determined by a series of Japanese data [..]

European Session – Sterling buoyant despite soft UK retail sales

Posted on February 21, 2014 at 2:40 pm GMT

There was little movement in major currency pairs leading into the weekend, partly due to hardly any news releases today. The only major data out during today’s European session was from the United Kingdom for January retail sales. Sales volumes dropped by 1.5% month-over-month, down from December’s surge to 2.5%. This was bigger than the 0.9% drop expected. The pound dipped to a new low for the week against the dollar, touching $1.6611, before making a quick rebound back to-pre-data [..]

Forex News – Euro unemployment / inflation, US, UK GDP revisions and Japanese CPI in week ahead

Posted on February 21, 2014 at 1:44 pm GMT

Major headline-grabbing news will probably be absent from the week ahead, as a raft of economic data will illuminate the state of the Eurozone economy and whether Japanese inflation is on course for 1.5%. Revisions to the GDP data of the United States and the United Kingdom will also be closely watched. For the euro, the week kicks off with the German IFO business climate survey for February, expected to be little changed from the previous month’s figure at 110.6, [..]

Technical Analysis – Crude Oil bullish momentum

Posted on February 21, 2014 at 10:04 am GMT

Crude oil is hovering at a 4-month high around the 103 level. Prices rallied from a January 9 low of 91.23 to a high of 103.27 on Thursday. Prices are now consolidating near this high. The market is being capped by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down- leg from the September high (110.68) to the January low (91.23). Daily momentum looks strong, as indicated by the bullish RSI which has now crossed above the 70 level. CCI is also [..]

Asian Session – Yen weakens while dollar steadies on upbeat US PMI

Posted on February 21, 2014 at 7:35 am GMT

The absence of negative news today buoyed risk appetite slightly on Friday. The dollar was steady despite weak Philly Fed data yesterday. However the focus was mainly on the more upbeat Markit PMI numbers which rose to a 4-year high to 56.7 from a prior 53.7 and versus 53 expected. Other upbeat data included jobless claims which were in-line with expectations at 335,000 while CPI matched the annual forecasted rate of 1.6%. The only data released during the Asian session [..]

European Session – Euro weak after disappointing PMIs

Posted on February 20, 2014 at 2:41 pm GMT

Preliminary Eurozone PMI data were disappointing today and hurt sentiment for the euro. According to flash estimates released by Markit Economics, both of France’s services and manufacturing PMI numbers remained in contraction territory (below 50) this month. Germany – Europe’s engine of growth – experienced a bigger slowdown than expected in its manufacturing sector this month. Growth in the Eurozone’s overall manufacturing and services sectors came in largely flat this month. The European data follows China PMI data which were [..]

Forex News – Eurozone PMIs disappoint but still point to continued growth

Posted on February 20, 2014 at 2:28 pm GMT

Eurozone flash Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for February gave mixed signals regarding the region’s economic performance. The indices were worse than expected, both with respect to services as well as manufacturing. Manufacturing output actually dropped to 53 in February from January’s 54, whereas services actually managed to rise slightly to 51.7 from 51.6. Economists had expected the services sub-index to rise even more to 51.9. The composite index came in at 52.7 compared to expectations of 53.1 and a previous [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD struggles to rise

Posted on February 20, 2014 at 9:51 am GMT

AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since October 23 until January 24 (more-than 3 ½ year low) when it bounced back up to retrace 38.2% of the downleg from 0.9756 to 0.8659. Following this rally from the January low, the market has consolidated between the 23.6% (0.8916) and 38.2% (0.9076) Fibonacci levels this month, with each level providing support and resistance respectively. The 55-day moving average is also acting as support. Technical indicators are currently neutral. The RSI has flattened [..]

Asian Session – Dollar weak after Fed minutes, yen gains on soft China PMI

Posted on February 20, 2014 at 7:41 am GMT

There was a flurry of news during the Asian session as well as overnight during the US session, which were generally downbeat and dampened risk appetite in the currency markets. This led to safe haven flows into the yen. The flash reading of the HSBC China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell in February to a 7-month low of 48.3 from January’s final reading of 49.5, missing forecasts for a 49.5 reading. Anything below 50 signifies contraction, compared to an above [..]

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