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Technical Analysis – Crude oil bullish at 5-month high

Posted on March 3, 2014 at 9:05 am GMT

Crude oil hit a 5-month high early on Monday as geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Threats of sanctions on Russia could disrupt supplies to Europe which receives a third of its supply from there. Oil prices opened on Monday with a gap higher at 103.14 compared to Friday’s close of 102.65 and hit a high of 104.63, the highest since September 22. Prices have been rallying since January 14 and have been contained in a rising channel since [..]

Asian Session – Yen hits 1-month high against dollar on Ukraine unrest

Posted on March 3, 2014 at 7:43 am GMT

Flows were to the safe haven yen on Monday due to geopolitical risks as Russia threatens to invade the Ukrainian region of Crimea. Europe could be affected by a disruption of oil and gas supplies from Russia if sanctions are imposed on Russia. One third of Europe’s natural gas supplies come from Russia. In other news, disappointing China PMIs highlighted concern over growth in the world’s second largest economy. An official government survey released over the weekend showed activity in [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD hits 7-week high

Posted on February 28, 2014 at 3:02 pm GMT

NZDUSD has been locked in strong uptrend since the February 26 low of 0.8280 until today’s high of 0.8424. The market found resistance at this high and has since pulled back, heading towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the move up from the February 26 low to today’s high. This support level is found at 0.8388. The upside momentum appears to have weaned as the RSI has started to turn back down on the 4-hour chart. The stochastic is still [..]

European Session – Euro surges above $1.38 on Eurozone inflation data

Posted on February 28, 2014 at 2:42 pm GMT

Eurozone inflation data printed a higher-than-forecast number today and lifted the euro to a new 2014 high against the dollar. The annual flash estimate showed consumer prices rose 0.8% in February, beating estimates of 0.7% while keeping the same pace as in the prior two months. The upbeat data lowered expectations that the European Central Bank would take action at its policy meeting next week. These diminished prospects of a rate cut led to euro buying and propelled the currency [..]

Forex News – Week ahead: Geopolitics, ECB meeting and US employment report loom large

Posted on February 28, 2014 at 2:40 pm GMT

It will be a busy week in terms of economic data, central bank meetings and geopolitics. First of all, if the situation in the Ukraine deteriorates and in particular if Russian armed forces become involved (an unlikely scenario at present), safe haven assets and currencies could gain. On the other hand, if that particular situation begins to stabilize and if there are signs that Russia and the West can cooperate and reach a mutually beneficial agreement, which will also stabilize [..]

Asian Session – Yen hits 2-week high versus dollar as Japan economy grows

Posted on February 28, 2014 at 8:24 am GMT

A series of upbeat economic reports from Japan lifted the yen today, as the data indicated the economy is strengthening and suggested the Bank of Japan’s policy easing measures were helping stimulate the economy. Industrial production rose the most since 2011, while consumer price inflation increased1.1% in February from a year earlier, after a 0.7% gain the previous month. Meanwhile risk aversion due to mounting tension in Ukraine is causing safe haven flows into the yen which hit a 2-week [..]

European Session – Euro tumbles to 10-month low versus Swiss Franc

Posted on February 27, 2014 at 2:26 pm GMT

Safe haven flows mainly directed currency flows today as political tensions mounted in Crimea. The euro was the most impacted by these developments and underperformed against the Swiss Franc, the yen and the dollar. The euro was already under pressure from fundamentals and focus shifts to next week’s European Central Bank policy meeting. Rising concern over inflation levels in the Eurozone could lead to pressure on the ECB to take action. Today’s weaker print of German CPI added to euro [..]

Forex News – Australian capital spending disappoints as business investment slows down

Posted on February 27, 2014 at 12:07 pm GMT

Australian capital expenditure dropped by a 5.2% quarterly rate during the fourth quarter, which was a negative surprise compared to expectations of a flat reading. In addition, the previous quarter’s reading was revised downwardly to a rise of 2.6% from 3.6% announced previously. Furthermore, construction capex was down 3.5% compared to a revised 5.4% growth during the previous quarter and plant and machinery capex spending fell even more by 8.6%. It should be noted that during 2011 and for most [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY consolidating into ascending triangle

Posted on February 27, 2014 at 9:53 am GMT

After a steep rally from October 8 (96.55) to January 2 (105.43), USDJPY has retraced as much as 50% of this upleg and is currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 102.04. Prices are forming an ascending triangle from the low of 100.76 on February 3 which suggests a bullish signal and a possible break to the upside. A break out of the triangle and a breach of resistance at 102.81 will target the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 103.36. [..]

Asian Session – Aussie under pressure after weak business investment data

Posted on February 27, 2014 at 7:42 am GMT

Geopolitical risk with regards to the events in Ukraine and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony later today gave markets a cautious tone. The dollar eased against the yen after a brief rally induced by strong US new home sales data yesterday. Purchases of new homes increased 9.6% in January to 468,000, exceeding estimates of 406,000 and up from a prior revised 427,000. This was good news especially after a recent series of weak US data. Markets will focus on [..]

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