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European Session – Euro weak as focus turns to ECB

Posted on March 5, 2014 at 2:35 pm GMT

Today’s European Session data included the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. There were also retail sales data for the Eurozone. The Eurozone’s composite PMI, which is a gauge of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, rose in February to the highest since June 2011, at 53.3 versus January’s 51.7. Today’s figure was more than the 51.7 expected. Despite the upbeat data, the euro fell as uncertainty builds ahead of the European Central [..]

Forex News – Australian 4th Quarter GDP surprises on upside; strong economy could help aussie

Posted on March 5, 2014 at 1:23 pm GMT

The news that Australia’s economic growth beat expectations during the final quarter of the year was a reassuring development for the country’s outlook. Quarter-on-quarter growth came in at 0.8%, slightly higher than economists’ expectations of 0.7%. The beat on the year-on-year growth number was even more significant at 2.8% versus 2.5% expected. In order to explain the country’s economic performance further, three important factors need to be outlined. Firstly, household spending was up 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, which added 0.4% to overall [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bearish below Ichimoku

Posted on March 5, 2014 at 9:44 am GMT

EURUSD was in an uptrend from the February 3 low (1.3476) to the February 28 high (1.3823). This level was rejected by the market and the euro fell back down towards the 1.3720 area. Prices are currently capped just below the 23.6% retracement of this upleg from February 3-28. This Fibonacci level is proving to be strong resistance around 1.3741. The short-term outlook is bearish as prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud on the hourly chart. Key support is seen [..]

Asian Session – Aussie jumps on GDP data

Posted on March 5, 2014 at 7:52 am GMT

Markets breathed a sigh of relief as geopolitical tensions eased over the Ukraine crisis and the S&P rallied to a record high yesterday. Major currency pairs were calm during Wednesday’s Asian session, with the only big moves made by the Australian dollar following fourth quarter GDP data. The Australian economy grew 0.8% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter when it grew at 0.6%. The Q4 number beat expectations for a 0.7% growth. The aussie spiked up against the [..]

European Session – Sterling falls on disappointing UK data, yen weaker as Ukraine crisis eases

Posted on March 4, 2014 at 2:35 pm GMT

Risk appetite improved in the European Session as investors felt less nervous about tensions in the Ukraine escalating. This was due to Russian President Putin ordering his troops to leave the Ukraine border and return to base. The euro benefited from the news and climbed against the dollar although gains were limited as focus shifts to a key event on Thursday. The European Central Bank will be holding its monthly policy meeting. The euro is buoyed by confidence in markets [..]

Forex news – Geopolitics becomes main forex driver on Ukraine / Crimea crisis

Posted on March 4, 2014 at 10:26 am GMT

The reports over the weekend of Russian troop movements in and around Crimea and near the Ukraine / Russia border had a major effect on international markets. The troop movements followed the ousting of the previous pro-Russian government of President Yanukovich and its replacement with a government that wanted closer relations with the European Union. The fact that Ukraine is split between Russia-friendly regions and pro-West areas, added to the risks of internal strife as well as the risk of [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD looking bearish

Posted on March 4, 2014 at 9:45 am GMT

AUDUSD is looking bearish after the RBA policy decision on Tuesday to keep rates on hold at 2.5% and signaled that the AUD is historically too high. The bigger picture shows the downtrend is still strong as the pair only managed to retrace 38.2% of the move down from 0.9756 (October 23 high) to 0.8659 (January 24). The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9076 proved to be strong resistance and capped the market at this level and prices moved down to [..]

Asian Session – Yen weakens as Ukraine tensions subside, Aussie steady after RBA on hold

Posted on March 4, 2014 at 7:47 am GMT

The yen was one of the worst performing G10 currencies during Tuesday’s Asian session as tensions over Ukraine eased, thereby reducing demand for safe havens. There were reports late in the session that Russia ordered its troops participating in military drills to return to home bases by March 7. The dollar moved higher following a series of positive US economic data overnight. Both the ISM and the Markit manufacturing PMI indexes beat expectations. The February ISM rose to 53.2 compared [..]

European Session – Euro steady after upbeat Eurozone PMIs

Posted on March 3, 2014 at 2:02 pm GMT

Upbeat Eurozone PMI data kept the euro steady against the dollar and prevented the single currency from falling lower due to tensions in Ukraine. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 while Germany’s ticked up to 54.8. Spain’s PMI rose to 52.5 and France’s was up to 49.7. This series of positive data in combination with a higher-than-expected flash CPI on Friday, have eased expectations that the European Central Bank would take action at its policy meeting on Thursday. The [..]

Forex News – China manufacturing slows to an 8-month low

Posted on March 3, 2014 at 11:26 am GMT

The world’s second largest economy is still indicating signs of struggling to expand as data released over the weekend showed slowing momentum in the manufacturing sector. There were two separate reports on China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – one was official from the Chinese government and the other was a private survey by HSBC/Markit. The government data showed a dip to an eight-month low of 50.2, compared to 50.5 in January. The bright side was that the reading was above [..]

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