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European Session – Sterling tumbles as BOE’s Bean unhappy about its strength

Posted on March 10, 2014 at 2:30 pm GMT

The tone of the markets was mostly directed by the weak Chinese trade data since there were no other major economic releases in the European session today. The Chinese data released over the weekend dented the optimistic tone markets had after Friday’s stronger-than-forecast US nonfarm payrolls. Data released during the European session had only a minor impact on currencies, even on the euro. The Eurozone Sentix Index rose in March to 13.9 versus 13.3 in February but was lower than [..]

Forex News – Asian focused news to dominate as Europe / US have light calendars

Posted on March 10, 2014 at 10:26 am GMT

Japanese statistics and a BoJ meeting combined with industrial output figures for Europe, retail sales for the US and some important developments in Australia and New Zealand are likely to be the highlights of this week. This will be an important week for the Japanese yen, as following the significant downward revision of 4th quarter GDP growth and a current account deficit that was bigger-than-expected as a result of weak exports, the Bank of Japan will deliver its policy statement [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY consolidates after strong rally

Posted on March 10, 2014 at 8:55 am GMT

USDJPY had a strong rally last week, finishing with a 1.7% gain on Friday to close just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from October 8 (96.55) to January 2 (105.43). After such a strong move up, the pair is bound to consolidate, especially since the Ichimoku cloud has become thinner, meaning less volatility. Also the cloud twist appearing on the daily chart on March 12 indicates weakness in the uptrend. Immediate resistance is being provided by [..]

Asian Session – China trade deficit hurts aussie and lifts yen

Posted on March 10, 2014 at 7:35 am GMT

The yen rose on safe haven demand after dismal China trade data hurt risk appetite. The world’s second largest economy recorded a deficit of US$23bln in February versus expectations of plus $14.5bln as exports tumbled 18.1% year-on-year. This was the biggest drop in exports since 2009. Other disappointing data from one of Asia’s largest economies also hurt risk appetite. Japan’s GDP missed forecasts and the nation’s current account deficit widened to a record US$ 15.4 bln. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are [..]

European Session – Euro backs off 2 ½ year record against dollar following strong nonfarm payrolls

Posted on March 7, 2014 at 2:25 pm GMT

A stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls figure for February pushed the euro away from 2 ½ year highs achieved earlier in the session and gave the dollar a boost. The euro was moving higher on the back of inactivity by the ECB during the previous day’s rate-setting meeting, as many had expected the central bank to find ways to further stimulate the economy. Instead, the ECB chief Mario Draghi said economic conditions did not warrant a shift in monetary policy. One story [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP 4-hourly; bullish short-term picture with 0.8340 as target

Posted on March 7, 2014 at 9:35 am GMT

[caption id="attachment_14099" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption]The 8-month low in euro / pound at 0.8156 in mid-February was followed by a recovery of the euro, which has recently broken through resistance at 0.8267. This was related to the ECB taking no action against disinflation in the Eurozone at its March 6 meeting. The 0.8267 level has now probably turned into short-term support. Below that support level, 0.8197 will likely provide further support, while the 8-month low of 0.8157 will be [..]

Asian Session – Euro stays near 2-month high following ECB, ahead of US employment report

Posted on March 7, 2014 at 7:49 am GMT

After making a 2-month high against the dollar at 1.3873, the euro was little changed during the Asian session at 1.3858. The main takeaway from the ECB meeting was the comment of ECB President Mario Draghi that Eurozone economic conditions did not warrant a change in monetary policy. This was despite the economic forecasts of ECB staff that show slow growth and slow inflation extending to 2016 for the region. The euro also rose to a 2-month high against the [..]

European Session – ECB holds rates boosting the euro; yen loses ground on strong US data

Posted on March 6, 2014 at 2:58 pm GMT

The main event of the day was the inaction of the ECB as during its scheduled policy meeting it decided to keep both the key refinancing and the deposit rates unchanged at 0.25% and 0% respectively, while employing no new tools to provide additional liquidity. The ECB’s staff forecasts saw slow growth and slow inflation in the years up to 2016. There were some analysts in the markets that were hoping for some sort of stimulus. As those expectations were [..]

Technical Analysis – Pound consolidates after hitting 4-year high against dollar

Posted on March 6, 2014 at 9:57 am GMT

(click to enlarge) After hitting a fresh 4-year high in the middle of February (1.6821 on 17 February), pound versus dollar has been consolidating between roughly the 1.66 and 1.68 levels. The pound has recently managed to move away from the 1.66 level towards 1.67 – close to the middle of the range. If the pound makes a move higher, it will have to break the recent week’s high of 1.6741 (R1), before taking on the high of the previous [..]

Asian Session – Euro trades cautiously ahead of ECB, yen retreats on positive risk sentiment

Posted on March 6, 2014 at 7:32 am GMT

The main theme dominating markets was the anticipation of the European Central Bank meeting later in the day as there has been a lot of debate whether the ECB will provide stimulus and what kind of stimulus or if it will choose to wait following the uptick in February inflation last Friday. One possible measure was to stop the sterilization of the Securities Markets Program or in other words to stop the withdrawal of liquidity that matches the amount it [..]

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