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European Session – Euro rallies above 1.39

Posted on March 17, 2014 at 2:27 pm GMT

Despite on-going geopolitical risks with regards to Crimea, the foreign exchange market has been quite complacent. Crimea has formally applied for union with Russia after 95% of Crimean voters backed the idea in a referendum on Sunday. US President Obama issued a new executive order today to authorize sanctions on certain Russian government officials. The EU issued similar sacntions on Russian and Crimean officials. Currency markets  took on a neutral tone during today’s European session. The euro moved higher despite [..]

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Forex News – EU finance ministers meet to discuss sanctions on Russia, markets hold breath

Posted on March 17, 2014 at 10:15 am GMT

There has been a subdued start to the new trading week, despite headlines over the weekend that Crimea voted in a referendum to join the Russian Federation. Markets were mixed in Asia on Monday but foreign exchange markets were remarkably calm going into the European session. The usual gauge of risk aversion in forex is a strengthening of the safe haven yen. However the yen only briefly gained and the dollar rose towards the upper range of 101 yen. The [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD uptrend pauses

Posted on March 17, 2014 at 9:08 am GMT

The underlying long term trend for cable has been bullish. GBPUSD has been in an uptrend since July 2013 and the pair has gained 12% since then. The daily chart analysis shows GBPUSD has been mostly range-bound in the past four weeks, trading sideways between lows of 1.6567 and highs of 1.6821. Technical indicators shows that price action has lost momentum; the RSI has levelled off around the 50-point level and the stochastic has declined to below 30. However, the [..]

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Asian Session – Gold hits 6-month high as Crimea votes to join Russia

Posted on March 17, 2014 at 7:34 am GMT

Risk aversion was back in the markets after news over the weekend that Crimea chose to secede from the Ukraine and voted in a referendum on Sunday to join the Russian Federation. The EU and the US threatened to impose sanctions if Russian President Putin goes ahead with annexing Crimea. Official results early on Monday showed that 96.7% of Crimeans were in favour of joining Russia. While the result was widely expected, the West overwhelmingly rejected the results of the [..]

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European Session – Risk ahead of Ukraine referendum benefits yen

Posted on March 14, 2014 at 2:50 pm GMT

Safe haven demand favoured the yen ahead of this weekend’s risk event. The Crimean referendum to secede from Ukraine will be held this Sunday while Western countries are threatening to impose sanction on Russia, which refuses to back down on its plans to annex the Crimean region.  Russia has gone ahead with military exercises near its border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, China’s growth concerns are also weighing on market sentiment. The yen is increasingly gaining strength heading into the US session [..]

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Forex News – Federal Reserve policy meeting the main focus next week

Posted on March 14, 2014 at 11:14 am GMT

The most important event of next week will be the Federal Reserve policy announcement on Wednesday following a two-day meeting. Investors will look out to see if the Fed will scale back its current bond buying program further. The current pace of purchases is at $65 billion a month after the Fed trimmed the original asset purchase program by $10 billion at each of its last two policy meetings. This will be Janet Yellen’s first meeting as Fed Chair. It [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD bullish trend stalls at 1.38

Posted on March 14, 2014 at 8:19 am GMT

The underlying long-term trend for EURUSD is bullish. The pair rallied strongly from the end of January to a 2 ½ year high of 1.3966 on Thursday after breaching a key resistance level at 1.3914. Prices have since pulled back sharply towards support at 1.3833. Studies on the daily time frame show the market is above the 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages, which is a bullish signal. MACD is rising and above zero, which is also a bullish sign. [..]

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Asian Session – Yen gains on risk aversion because of Ukraine and China slowdown worries

Posted on March 14, 2014 at 7:41 am GMT

Negative risk sentiment was the key theme in today’s trading, which benefited safe havens such as the yen, while the euro also retreated after ECB’s Draghi said the central bank had been preparing for action if inflation becomes ‘unanchored’. As stock markets from New York to Tokyo sold off, the yen was the main beneficiary. The sudden reversal in sentiment in the face of few changes in the underlying situation shows the degree of nervousness in the market and potential [..]

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European Session – Euro hits new 2 ½ year high, dollar rises after US jobless claims data

Posted on March 13, 2014 at 2:35 pm GMT

The dollar was broadly weaker until US data on jobless claims and retail sales gave it a small boost. During the European session the euro hit a new 2-1/2-year high against the dollar, buoyed by comments from ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann. He said that the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy in the Eurozone was appropriate, but that low interest rates “shouldn’t be a permanent condition.” The euro overall is drawing strength from the ECB’s inaction at its latest policy [..]

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Forex News – Kiwi strengthens as RBNZ embarks on rate hikes

Posted on March 13, 2014 at 11:20 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely expected interest rate hike on Thursday, raising its benchmark cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.75 percent. The RBNZ takes the lead at exiting from record low interest rates ahead of other major central banks in the developed world, as the United States, Europe. the UK and Japan all grapple with recovering from the financial crisis. While the Bank’s rate hike was expected by many market participants, [..]

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