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Technical Analysis – EURUSD bearish

Posted on March 20, 2014 at 7:52 am GMT

EURUSD fell below the key 1.3900 support level on Wednesday and stopped just above the 1.3800 psychological level to rebound at 1.3808 early on Thursday. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD broke below its 20 and 50 period moving averages to currently find support at the 100-period moving average. In the short-term, further bearishness remains as technical indicators are showing bearish signs. The RSI has declined towards 30 while MACD has fallen below zero. The Stochastic is below 20 in oversold [..]

Asian Session – Fed’s Yellen rattles markets with earlier timeframe for higher interest rates

Posted on March 20, 2014 at 7:35 am GMT

The dollar rallied broadly overnight, although it did give back some of those gains during the Asian session, as Janet Yellen, the new Chair of the Federal Reserve predicted that US interest rates could rise about 6 months following the end of tapering. The US central bank reduced its monthly bond-buying program by an additional 10 billion dollars to 55 billion; a step that was well-anticipated by the markets. Furthermore, again as expected, it changed its forward guidance to say [..]

European Session – Dollar gains ahead of Fed policy announcement

Posted on March 19, 2014 at 2:32 pm GMT

The market’s focus is on the Federal Reserve which concludes a two-day policy meeting later today. All eyes will be on the policy statement. The Fed is expected to cut another $10 billion from its monthly asset-purchase program, lowering its stimulus to $55 billion a month. While tapering is widely expected, what is important to markets is whether there will be any tweaking of the Fed’s forward rate guidance and if there are any hints on the first rate hike. [..]

Forex News – UK unemployment rate held at 7.2%, jobless claims drop

Posted on March 19, 2014 at 12:30 pm GMT

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United Kingdom fell in February by much more than expected. According to data from the Office of National Statistics, the claimant count change was down by 34,600 last month, more than the 25,000 decrease that was forecast, bringing the number of jobless Britons to 1.17 million in February. The number of people who are in employment hit a new record of just under 30.2 million, with the surge in self-employment acting [..]

Technical Analysis – S&P close to record high

Posted on March 19, 2014 at 8:11 am GMT

The S&P is in a broad underlying uptrend. This is confirmed by the market being above an uptrend line (from 9 October 2013) and above three moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day moving averages). Prices briefly turned lower after hitting an all-time high (1887.00) on March 7 but found support at 1830.25. This is the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from Feb 5 (1731.75) to March 7 (1887.00) lies. The 50-day moving average also coincides [..]

Asian Session – Dollar posts slight rebound ahead of Fed decision

Posted on March 19, 2014 at 7:55 am GMT

The dollar managed to post slight gains ahead of the decision from the Federal Reserve later in the day. Still, the dollar’s trade-weighted index against a basket of currencies was near a 4-month low. The dollar was trading at 101.56 against the yen, relatively close to 100.75 which was its low for the year. The euro stood at 1.3921 against the dollar, also not far from a recent 2 ½ year high of 1.3969 hit earlier in the month. The [..]

Forex News – German investor sentiment declines to 7-month low

Posted on March 18, 2014 at 4:18 pm GMT

Investor sentiment in Germany has declined for a third month in March and fell to the lowest level since August. The ZEW Investor Confidence index for March was released on Tuesday, coming in lower than forecast at 46.6 versus 53.0 expected and below February’s 55.7. The ZEW index is complied by conducting a survey on about 275 German institutional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany. It is believed that the tensions [..]

European Session – Euro remains above 1.39 but weighed by weak German ZEW

Posted on March 18, 2014 at 2:38 pm GMT

The risk environment improved in the currency markets today as the threat of armed conflict in the Ukraine began to ease, especially after Russian President Putin said that Russia doesn’t need further division in the Ukraine. His comments helped eased fears that were in the air as to how Putin would react to sanctions imposed on Russian government officials by the US and the EU on Monday in response to Russia’s desire to annex Crimea. Market focus now switches to [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD correcting lower

Posted on March 18, 2014 at 9:14 am GMT

The underlying trend for EURUSD is up however the pair is due for a short-term correction after a rally to a high of 1.3966 on Thursday. This level was rejected and the pair has since declined. Support is seen at key Fibonacci retracement levels of the upleg from Feb 27 low (1.3642) to the March 13 high (1.3966). These level are seen at 1.3889 (23.6% Fib), 1.3842 (38.2% Fib) and 1.3804 (50% Fib). A break below the 50% Fib would [..]

Asian Session – Yen softer as Ukraine crisis does not escalate

Posted on March 18, 2014 at 7:39 am GMT

Risk sentiment has held up well and safe haven assets have been unwound after the easing of geopolitical risk. The yen weakened 0.7% against the dollar since Monday while the euro rallied back above the key 1.39 level. Markets participants were relieved that the threat of immediate military conflict in Ukraine receded and the West’s reaction to the Crimean referendum vote was relatively mild. The US and the EU merely imposed personal sanctions on Russian and Crimean officials and did [..]

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