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Asian Session – Aussie hits 4-month high after China PMI, RBA holds rates

Posted on April 1, 2014 at 6:49 am GMT

China released a mix of manufacturing PMI data on Monday. There were contradictory reports, with the official PMI showing a slight improvement to 50.3, while the private survey by HSBC showed a contraction at 48.0. The Australian dollar reacted positively to the official reading and jumped to a new 4-month high in a knee-jerk reaction, briefly hitting 0.9302 before retreating to 0.9265. Helping underpin the aussie was the Reserve Bank of Australia announcement that the main cash rate was left [..]

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European Session – Euro rises despite soft inflation data, ECB in focus

Posted on March 31, 2014 at 1:53 pm GMT

Risk sentiment was up in Monday’s European session despite soft Eurozone inflation data and upcoming risk events all week. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking later today, the ECB meeting is on Thursday and the all-important US nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday. Additionally, on Tuesday Japanese data are important as is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The euro shrugged off data showing a drop in Eurozone inflation to the lowest level in four years. Annual [..]

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Forex News – Soft Eurozone inflation briefly impacts euro, focus shifts to ECB meeting

Posted on March 31, 2014 at 11:05 am GMT

Inflation in the Eurozone fell more-than-forecast according to a flash estimate for March, reaching its lowest level in four years. Data released on Monday show that annual CPI fell from February’s 0.7% to 0.5% this month, the lowest since 2009 and far from the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%. The disappointing data is raising speculation that the ECB will take some kind of action at its April 3 policy meeting. The ECB has to assess how much [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD retreats from 4-month high

Posted on March 31, 2014 at 7:35 am GMT

AUDUSD hit a four-month high of 0.9294 on March 28 but was unable to sustain gains at this level and has subsequently retreated. The daily RSI reached overbought levels on Friday before momentum eased slightly. The market is currently resting just above the 50 % Fibonacci of the downleg from October 23 (0.9756) to January 24 (0.8659). Prices have broken above the 200-day moving average which is a bullish signal and the MACD is in bullish territory above zero.  At [..]

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Asian Session – Yen dips on anticipation of Chinese stimulus

Posted on March 31, 2014 at 7:07 am GMT

The yen gave up some ground during the Asian session on Monday, trading around 102.86 against the dollar and 141.44 against the yen, with modest losses around 0.1%. The release of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business survey for the first quarter on Tuesday will be a key event for the yen. Markets were anticipating economic stimulus out of China, which would in turn boost risk sentiment.  There was also anticipation of tomorrow’s official manufacturing PMI number for China for [..]

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European Session – Euro recovers from 3-week low after upbeat Eurozone sentiment data

Posted on March 28, 2014 at 2:46 pm GMT

The euro was boosted by upbeat economic sentiment data from the Eurozone which rose in March to its highest level since July 2011. Prior to this data, the euro fell to its lowest level in three-weeks versus the dollar after a surprise fall in Spanish inflation raised concern of deflation risk in the Eurozone. Gains in the euro are expected to be capped ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday. Speculation is growing that the ECB will [..]

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Forex News – Weekly Review – AUD outperforms, EUR falls as ECB mulls QE, USD looks to nonfarm payrolls

Posted on March 28, 2014 at 1:48 pm GMT

The main theme of the past week was central bankers rhetoric, driving currencies like the euro to three-week lows against the dollar and the Australian dollar to fresh four-month highs. Several European Central Bank Governing Council members made remarks this week that suggested the ECB was open to using further monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing in order to tackle deflation in the Eurozone. This dented the euro, while a series of disappointing data also weighed and kept the [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY capped below Ichimoku cloud

Posted on March 28, 2014 at 9:03 am GMT

USDJPY remains capped below its 100-day moving average and is hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upleg from October 25 low (96.93) to January 2 high (105.43). The Ichimoku cloud is also acting as strong resistance and is a barrier to any upside moves. Cloud resistance currently comes in at 102.42 and the upper cloud level is at 103.07. A successful break above this level will target the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 103.43. To the downside there is [..]

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Asian Session – Yen steady after mixed Japanese data

Posted on March 28, 2014 at 7:56 am GMT

The euro remains below 1.38, hovering near a three-week low against the dollar as central bank polices grow between the Euro zone and the US. The Fed has signalled rate hikes to begin sooner than previously thought while the ECB is mulling loosening monetary policy further. Upbeat US jobless claims on Thursday helped underpin the dollar as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest since November at 311,000 compared to 325,000 expected and down from [..]

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European Session – Dollar lifted after US jobless claims

Posted on March 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm GMT

The dollar was lifted against the yen after US jobless claims for the week ending March 22nd rose by fewer-than-expected to 311,000 versus a previous 321,000. The dollar/yen rate climbed to a high of 102.42 after the data. Weaker-than-forecast US pending home sales numbers capped further gains. Sterling was one of the biggest movers after UK retail sales beat forecasts to rise in February by 1.7% month-on-month versus 0.5% expected and up 3.7% year-on-year. The euro fell to a 3-week [..]

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