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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bearish

Posted on April 7, 2014 at 8:31 am GMT

GBPUSD is consolidating around 1.6573 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upleg from the March 24 low (1.6464) to the March 31 high (1.6683). The pair is looking bearish on the 4-hour chart after having declined steadily form the March 31 high. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period, which is a bearish cross. RSI is below 50 and MACD is below zero. Next support comes in a 1.6549 (61.8% Fibonacci and close to Friday’s [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURJPY looking bearish

Posted on April 7, 2014 at 7:11 am GMT

The trend on the daily chart is neutral and still trading above the Ichimoku cloud but is looking bearish in the short term. The pair has retraced almost 61.8% of the recent bull run from the March 28 low (139.95) to the April 2  high (143.46). The pair stopped just above key support at 141.00. After failing to move past resistance at 143.77, EURJPY reversed direction from 143.46. The Stochastic indicator moved away from overbought territory and turned lower as [..]

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Asian Session – Euro remains depressed on ECB’s QE thoughts, yen gains on risk-off

Posted on April 7, 2014 at 6:41 am GMT

The yen was the main beneficiary of the risk aversion that was prevalent in Friday’s Wall Street trading and which led to a drop in Tokyo’s Nikkei today.  Apparently the risk aversion could not be attributed to a single event but rather exhaustion in certain of the momentum stocks that had led the market higher in previous months – particularly in the technology sector. The market was still digesting the US employment report on Friday, keeping the dollar well bid [..]

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Forex News – Week ahead: BoE and BoJ meetings, Fed minutes and Australian employment stats to dominate headlines

Posted on April 4, 2014 at 1:54 pm GMT

Following a relatively exciting week that contained the ECB meeting and the all-important US employment report, next week will likely be quieter.  The Bank of England meeting on Thursday as well as Australian labor statistics earlier during the same day will likely be important events for sterling and the Australian dollar.  The Fed latest meeting minutes on Wednesday will likely shed some more light on the Federal Reserve’s current thought process. With respect to the euro, there will be some [..]

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European Session – Nonfarm payrolls slightly weaker than expected, dollar longs take profits

Posted on April 4, 2014 at 1:50 pm GMT

 The week’s most eagerly awaited statistic, the March nonfarm payrolls out of the US came in slightly lower-than-expected at 192 thousand compared to the consensus expectation of 200 thousand net new jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations of a dip to 6.6%.  The economy was also doing better than previously thought in February, as that month’s figure was upwardly revised to 197 thousand from 175 previously reported.  Another contradiction was that the rate of increase [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP Daily, range-bound with downside pressure

Posted on April 4, 2014 at 9:03 am GMT

[caption id="attachment_15550" align="alignnone" width="550"] (click to enlarge)[/caption] Euro / Sterling has been under pressure since February of 2013, when a 1 ½ year high around 88 pence was made.  An attempt by the euro to retake this high in July / August 2013 failed and as a result there was a downtrend which sunk the pair to 81.5 pence roughly (0.8160) by January / February of 2014. Strong economic data out of the UK supported this move higher by the [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar upbeat ahead of payrolls number

Posted on April 4, 2014 at 6:36 am GMT

The US dollar was trading at its strongest in more than a month against the euro while it made little fresh headway against the yen during today’s trading. The dollar was having problems climbing and staying above the 104 yen level, as traders were reluctant to push the currency too high ahead of the major event risk of the US employment report later in the day.  The dollar was trading around 103.85 yen. The market was anticipating the release of [..]

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Forex News –ECB keeps rates unchanged but Draghi hints at possible future options

Posted on April 3, 2014 at 1:43 pm GMT

The ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, with the marginal lending facility, refinancing and deposit facility rates at 0.75%, 0.25% and 0% respectively.  That the ECB would keep its key rate constant was widely expected, but there had been some hopes that the ECB might take the deposit rate into negative territory.  Therefore soon after the rate announcement, the euro did rise by about 15 pips – from 1.3755 to around 1.3770. During his press conference, ECB [..]

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European Session – ECB holds rates but Drgahi comments pressure euro

Posted on April 3, 2014 at 1:24 pm GMT

The euro initially jumped higher after the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. The inaction of the central bank was widely expected even as recent low inflation numbers (0.5% in March) raised the concern of the risk of deflation. Prior to the ECB news, the final reading of the Eurozone services PMI was released. It showed a lower figure compared to the preliminary reading, falling from 52.6 in February to 52.2 in March rather than [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD bearish below 100SMA

Posted on April 3, 2014 at 9:13 am GMT

EURUSD is pivoting around 1.3761 on the hourly chart in the early European session on Thursday. The pair has been rangebound in the last two sessions, trading between 1.3752 and 1.3771. The 100-hour moving average is also acting as a barrier at the 1.3771 level. Above the 100-hour moving average resistance is seen at 1.3783 and above this at 1.3795 and 1.3819. The short-term trend is bearish as the market is below the 20 and 100-hour moving averages and the [..]

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