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European Session – Sterling and Euro weaken after soft data

Posted on July 8, 2014 at 1:23 pm GMT

The sterling was notably weaker today as was the euro following disappointing data from Germany and from the UK. UK industrial and manufacturing production came in softer – than – expected at – 0.7% month-over-month and – 1.3% month-over-month respectively. The weak UK data raised concern about the recovery of the British economy although some believe that it is not enough to change the Bank of England’s policy stance and the view that interest rate hikes are likely to come [..]

Forex News – Sterling drops on negative industrial output surprise

Posted on July 8, 2014 at 12:30 pm GMT

The news that UK industrial output dropped by 0.7% month-on-month came as a negative surprise to foreign exchange markets, which had recently become used to stronger-than-expected data out of Great Britain. Economists had been expecting an increase of 0.2%, whereas the rise in the previous month was 0.4%. Still, the year-on-year increase was a respectable 2.3%. With respect to manufacturing, which excludes the output of certain utility industries as well as mining and quarrying, the monthly drop was an even [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCHF breaks below 200DMA

Posted on July 8, 2014 at 7:07 am GMT

USDCHF has fallen below the 200-day moving average, weakening the recent bullish market structure. The price is currently at 0.8935, capped just below the middle Bollinger Band line. After dipping into bearish territory, the RSI moved back up to just above the 50 line where it has paused for the past 4 days. The market is showing indecision at the moment. A daily close above the 200-day moving average will give scope for prices to resume it bullish momentum to [..]

Asian Session – Dollar stabilizes after pressure due to reassessment of rates’ outlook

Posted on July 8, 2014 at 6:45 am GMT

Major currencies were little changed in Asia today, as the 1.36 level proved to be a magnet once again for euro / dollar, trading at 1.3601. Dollar / yen was holding below 102 at 101.81 as the Japanese current account surplus for May came in higher-than-expected. The main reason behind the pressure on the dollar was the fact that treasury yields in the United States fell significantly yesterday. Although no major economic data was released, the treasury market believed that [..]

European Session – Euro rebounds after strong Eurozone Sentix to test 1.3600

Posted on July 7, 2014 at 1:33 pm GMT

It was a quiet start to the week, with no major US data and few releases from Europe today. From the Eurozone, German industrial output data showed the biggest fall in 2 years in May, dropping 1.8 percent month-over-month, raising concern that the European Central Bank may need to loosen monetary policy further. The euro fell against the dollar after the disappointing German data to 1.3575 before bouncing back up to as high as 1.3600 following a better-than-expected on Eurozone [..]

Forex News – Swiss unemployment steady while reserves post increase

Posted on July 7, 2014 at 1:20 pm GMT

The news that Swiss unemployment dropped to 2.9% unadjusted for seasonal effects or stayed constant at 3.2% when seasonally adjusted, was right in line with economists’ expectations. The data has been part of a pattern that shows that unemployment in Switzerland has remained more or less steady for the past year or so. Previously, Swiss unemployment was in a gentle uptrend as it rose from 2.7% in 2011 to 3.2% in 2013. Growth is expected to come in at a [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD pauses rally near 6-year high

Posted on July 7, 2014 at 7:08 am GMT

Looking at the daily chart, the short-term trend has been neutral since the start of July, as the pair has been consolidating gains following a rally to 1.7178, the highest in nearly 6 years. The long-term trend remains bullish as the market is well above the 200-day moving average and above its uptrend line. A rising Ichimoku cloud as well as positively aligned tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines also add to the bullish market structure. Meanwhile the RSI is at 70 [..]

Asian Session – Dollar enjoys post-nonfarm payrolls tailwind

Posted on July 7, 2014 at 6:45 am GMT

Predictions that US interest rates could rise earlier-than-forecast supported the US dollar during Asian trading, as some banks brought forward the probable timing of an interest rate increase. This helped the dollar, as euro/dollar dropped to 1.3582 while dollar / yen climbed to 102.1. Euro / yen was little changed at 138.67. The dollar was still benefiting from last week’s much stronger-than-expected June employment report. A string of strong economic reports could reignite speculation of when the Federal Reserve would [..]

European Session – Euro falls below 1.36 post-ECB and NFP

Posted on July 4, 2014 at 1:51 pm GMT

Today there were no important economic data releases, thereby leaving markets to digest the major events from yesterday. The euro remained under pressure after the European Central Bank suggested interest rates would remain at current record lows for an extended period of time. Some disappointing German factory orders data today led to further losses for the euro. Meanwhile the strong US jobs data from yesterday undermined the euro against the dollar, pushing the single currency below the key 1.3600 level [..]

Forex News – Week ahead focus on Chinese inflation, Bank of England, Fed minutes and Australian employment

Posted on July 4, 2014 at 12:20 pm GMT

The coming week will be a relatively quiet one for the major currencies of the US dollar and the euro. The focus will be on China, the UK and Australia, but the data from these countries is not expected to have too broad a market impact – with the possible exception of the Chinese releases’ impact on risk sentiment. Following the crucial employment report for June in the United States the week that just passed, the most important events of [..]

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