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Asian Session – Upbeat US numbers keep dollar well bid ahead of NFP

Posted on August 1, 2014 at 7:00 am GMT

The US dollar index was trading at its highest in 10 months following data recently that showed the US economy doing better than expected.  An index of employment costs in the United States beat expectations the previous day, providing further fuel to the dollar’s rally. Interestingly, the possibility that the Fed will have to move faster than anticipated in raising interest rates, hurt US stocks, with benchmark indices posting their biggest daily loss in 4 months.  It should be noted [..]

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European Session – Euro weak on Eurozone CPI, dollar maintains post-GDP strength

Posted on July 31, 2014 at 1:36 pm GMT

The US dollar was broadly stronger and continued to strengthen as it is being supported by strong-than-expected US growth data from Wednesday, which helped boost treasury yields. The not-so-hawkish FOMC statement that followed the GDP data capped gains for the dollar though. Meanwhile, despite today’s initial jobless claims data increasing and missing forecasts, the dollar maintained strength. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 increased by 23,000 to 302,000 from the previous week’s 279,000 claims. [..]

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Forex News – Eurozone inflation at lowest in 5 years

Posted on July 31, 2014 at 12:42 pm GMT

Inflation data from the Eurozone were released today for the month of July, showing a drop to well below the European Central Bank’s 2% target and to a five-year low. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 0.4% , which was below expectations of 0.5% and down from 0.5% in June . This was the lowest level since October 2009. The core inflation rate which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol costs, came in flat at 0.8% year-on-year. The [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY rallies above key 103 yen level

Posted on July 31, 2014 at 7:06 am GMT

USDJPY rallied sharply on Wednesday to break above its 200 day moving average at 102.03 to break above the key 103 level and hit its highest level since early April. The pair is currently at 103.07 early on Thursday and is approaching the April 8 high of 103.10 which will be a near-term resistance level. This is also where the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud lies. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the early 2014 high from 104.11 to [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar holds gains after strong GDP data, dovish Fed

Posted on July 31, 2014 at 6:37 am GMT

The US dollar continued to climb higher following an impressive set of GDP numbers, but its gains were held back by the Federal Reserve’s statement. The US dollar was particularly strong against the Japanese yen, as it rose to 102.72 from around 102.11 the previous day.  The Australian dollar was also a victim of dollar strength, as it fell to 0.9322, after briefly touching 0.9301 following weaker-than-expected building approvals in Australia during June.  Sterling and the euro also posted small [..]

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European Session – Euro extends losses after dollar surges on US GDP

Posted on July 30, 2014 at 1:44 pm GMT

The dollar was well bid throughout the day ahead of an event-filled calendar and rallied sharply after strong US GDP data. The euro fell to a fresh 8-month trough and was not sensitive to German inflation data which showed a rise to 0.3% on the month, versus forecasts of 0.2%, and was unchanged from the previous month. The main driver of euro weakness was the broadly stronger dollar which saw demand ahead of the US data. The euro accelerated its [..]

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Forex News – US growth rebounds to 4% in Q2 after dismal 1st quarter performance

Posted on July 30, 2014 at 1:42 pm GMT

The news that the US economy grew by 4% during the April-June quarter was a welcome rebound from the first quarter’s 2.1% contraction (revised from the 2.9% contraction announced previously).  A 4% annualized growth rate represents a very healthy rate of growth – although part of it is inventory rebuilding as well as a rebound after the bad weather of the first quarter that created some pent up demand in certain sectors. Excluding inventories, the final sales measure of GDP [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP bearish below 0.8000

Posted on July 30, 2014 at 9:12 am GMT

EURGBP has been in a downward channel since the 2014 high of 0.8399 hit on March 18. The pair maintains its bearish outlook below they key level at 0.8000. Daily technical indicators are in bearish territory although have now turned neutral – RSI, MACD and stochastic have flattened out, suggesting some exhaustion from selling pressure. However, the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned while prices are below the Ichimoku cloud, keeping the bearish market structure. Immediate support lies at [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar maintains gains ahead of Fed, Q2 GDP

Posted on July 30, 2014 at 6:41 am GMT

The US dollar remained strong in otherwise quiet Asian trading following a much stronger-than-expected consumer confidence figure for July from the Conference Board the previous day. Consumer confidence crashed expectations by coming in at 90.9 compared to 85.2 the previous month and 85.3 expected by analysts. It was the highest reading for consumer confidence since October of 2007; the month when the US stock market peaked ahead of the financial crisis. The strong consumer confidence probably reflects two things – [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD in downward channel

Posted on July 30, 2014 at 6:32 am GMT

GBPUSD is in a bearish trend which was strengthened after breaking below the key 1.7000 level on July 24. The pair is approaching the June 18 low at 1.6926. A break below this would provide further downside towards next support at 1.6849 which is defined by the top of the Ichimoku cloud. The near-term trend is down as prices fall within the channel. The tenkan-sen has crossed below the kijun-sen line, giving a bearish signal. RSI is in bearish territory [..]

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