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Technical Analysis – USDJPY above 106.00

Posted on September 10, 2014 at 10:30 am GMT

A long term-bullish bias is favoured for USDJPY as long as key support at 100.74 holds. This is the low of February 2. The market has since approached this level several times without breaking below it. As can be seen on the weekly chart, after a consolidation phase from February to August, prices have moved higher, recently breaking above key resistance of 105.43, which was the December 2013 high. Prices peaked at 106.78 today, which is the highest level since [..]

Forex News – Carney hints BoE will hike rates in early 2015 as UK labour market recovers

Posted on September 10, 2014 at 9:20 am GMT

Sterling got a bit of a reprieve from its recent decline after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech on Tuesday to UK trade unions. The central bank chief signaled that UK interest rates could rise as early as the spring of 2015 if the labour market recovers. In the last BoE policy meeting in August, two out of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted for a rate rise, indicating a start in the shift in the trend which [..]

Asian Session – Aussie slides on consumer sentiment miss, poor risk sentiment

Posted on September 10, 2014 at 6:54 am GMT

The aussie was the main loser of today’s Asian session, as rising volatility and poor risk sentiment hurt higher-yielding currencies and as a report about consumer sentiment in Australia came in much lower-than-expected. September’s consumer confidence was down 4.6%, compared to a rise of 3.8% during the previous month. The Australian dollar fell 0.47% to 0.9157, a near six-month low as it broke out of its tight range of the past 2 months. Previously, the aussie had held relatively well [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD strongly bearish trend despite oversold levels

Posted on September 10, 2014 at 6:49 am GMT

GBPUSD is well into oversold territory, with the daily RSI reaching as low as 13 yesterday and the stochastic below 5 points. Despite the market being overstretched, the trend is strongly bearish and there are no divergences in the technical indicators. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned, and prices are well below the 200-day moving average. MACD is bearish. Currently prices have found support at the psychological level of 1.6100. The next target down is at the 50% [..]

European Session – Sterling stabilizes as Carney offers rate guidance

Posted on September 9, 2014 at 2:00 pm GMT

It was an eerily calm European session on Tuesday, as the US dollar digested some of its recent gains and the pound managed to pause its slide. The US dollar had been strong overnight after a research paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicated that the market and the public could be underestimating the Fed’s future interest rate hikes – both in size and their timing. This helped the dollar to climb to its highest in 6 years against [..]

Forex News – Fed paper suggests underestimation of pace and level of future rate hikes

Posted on September 9, 2014 at 12:40 pm GMT

News that a research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that markets and the public seem to have lower expectations with respect to interest rate increases compared to the Fed Board members themselves, helped the dollar to climb against its major counterparts. The research utilized data from interest rate futures, from economist surveys and other market data and this was set against the quarterly interest rate outlooks of the FOMC participants. According to the paper, while [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD at oversold levels

Posted on September 9, 2014 at 8:24 am GMT

GBPUSD has tumbled to fresh 10-month lows of 1.6063, with further downside potential. The daily technical indicators are strongly bearish. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. The MACD is in negative territory. RSI and the stochastic are strongly bearish but at extreme oversold levels, warning that the market is stretched. Next support is seen at the psychological level of 1.6000. Resistance comes in at 1.6200 followed by Friday’s low of 1.6280. [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD falls towards 2013 lows

Posted on September 9, 2014 at 6:46 am GMT

EURUSD is in a strong downtrend. Technical indicators are in bearish territory. The daily Ichimoku cloud is falling and prices are below it while the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned, adding to the bearish market structure. RSI and the stochastic though are well oversold warning of a pause in the downside momentum. Support lies between the April 2013 low of 1.2744 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2040 – 1.3992 upleg, which is at 1.2784. Resistance now [..]

Asian Session – Dollar breaks to new highs versus yen, euro and pound

Posted on September 9, 2014 at 6:40 am GMT

The dollar was once again the best performer of today’s trading, as a study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve pointed out that the market and the public could be underestimating the chances of interest rate increases. The relatively hawkish tone of the regional Fed study helped the dollar to notch six-year highs against the yen as it traded as high as 106.34, rising above the 106 level for the first time since 2008. There won’t be too many economic [..]

European Session – Sterling extends losses to fresh 10-month lows as Scottish referendum draws near

Posted on September 8, 2014 at 1:34 pm GMT

Sterling extended losses to reach a fresh 10-month low of 1.6102 as markets were spooked by the likelihood of Scottish independence. The catalyst for the pound’s weakness came after a poll on Sunday showed that the “Yes” campaign for an independent Scotland gained more ground recently. The uncertainty that could come if the referendum shows a vote for independence put pressure on the British currency as there would be substantial risks to businesses and the financial markets in the UK. [..]

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