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Asian Session – Pound rises on “No” expectation while aussie bounces back on risk rally

Posted on September 17, 2014 at 6:43 am GMT

The dollar was trading more or less sideways ahead of today’s big risk event which is the Federal Reserve meeting.  The statement, accompanying material and projections and Yellen’s press conference will be closely scrutinized.  Investors appear divided as to what changes to expect – particularly in the statement.  For example, there is a lot of debate on whether the Fed will maintain its pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable” period.  According to a well-informed reporter of the [..]

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European Session – Euro steady after German ZEW, markets look to FOMC

Posted on September 16, 2014 at 1:40 pm GMT

The currency markets were relatively quiet today as focus was shifting towards upcoming event risk later this week. Investors are reluctant to take on new positions ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and Scotland’s referendum for independence on Thursday. Most major currency pairs traded within recent ranges, with little movement despite some data releases today. The euro oscillated between 1.2921 and 1.2965, with little impact from the release of the German ZEW survey showing investors’ confidence dropped for a [..]

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Forex News – UK inflation in line with forecasts, sterling stable

Posted on September 16, 2014 at 10:11 am GMT

Sterling was given a slight boost after the headline UK inflation figure came in line with forecasts. As expected by economists, CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in August, the lowest increase since May, compared with 1.6% in July. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on a month-on-month basis, inflation rose 0.4% in August – also in line with expectations, after falling 0.3% month-on-month in July. Part of the contribution to the decline in the overall inflation rate has been [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP sideways action

Posted on September 16, 2014 at 7:01 am GMT

EURGBP has moved back into the daily Ichimoku cloud and is testing 0.7980. This is a key level since it is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.7750-0.8813 upleg. While the overall markets structure has been bearish, downside pressures have eased slightly as the RSI and MACD have both risen and are out of bearish territory. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are no longer negatively aligned and have flattened out. Sideways action is to continue as also indicated by [..]

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Asian Session – Light profit-taking by dollar longs ahead of FOMC, Scotland

Posted on September 16, 2014 at 6:33 am GMT

The US dollar took a small step back from its recent highs, as traders and investors awaited key risk events for foreign exchange markets.  The dollar was buying 107.25 yen and the euro remained steady at 1.2936. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene in Washington later today for its 2-day meeting.  This meeting is very important as it will be followed by key material such as updated economic forecasts and the views of the Federal Reserve Board [..]

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European Session – Dollar eases on weak US industrial production numbers

Posted on September 15, 2014 at 1:36 pm GMT

The economic calendar was light today but there will be major risk events later this week to look forward to. On Wednesday, the Fed will release its monetary policy decision followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Important inflation data from the UK, Eurozone and the US are due this week. The highlight of the week will be on Thursday when Scotland votes for independence. The only data from Europe today was the Eurozone’s trade balance figures [..]

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Forex News – Weak Chinese factory output spark fears of hard landing

Posted on September 15, 2014 at 10:12 am GMT

The world’s second-largest economy may be at risk of a sharp economic slowdown as data released on Sunday show that Chinese factory output in August grew at the slowest pace in nearly six years compared to a year ago. The main catalyst to the weakening in growth is due to a slowing down in the country’s property sector. The cooling housing market has resulted in a trickle-down effect to other sectors in the economy such as the cement and steel [..]

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Technical analysis – AUDUSD room to fall

Posted on September 15, 2014 at 7:08 am GMT

The market structure is bearish. Prices are below the 200-day moving average and are now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 24 (0.8659) – (July 1) 0.9503 upleg. This level comes in at 0.8984. Downside pressures remain as oscillators show room to fall. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. MACD is negative. RSI is now in oversold territory which signals a pause in the decline in the short term. Next daily support is seen at 0.8838 [..]

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Asian Session – Weak Chinese data hurt risk sentiment, aussie

Posted on September 15, 2014 at 6:46 am GMT

Weak Chinese industrial production numbers for August depressed mood at the start of this week’s trading while the fact that Japan was on holiday meant thin volumes.  The currency that was the main loser from this development was the Australian dollar, which dipped below the 90 cent level against the greenback to mark a low of 0.8984 – a six-month low.  China is Australia’s chief export market.  This was a significant development, as the aussie is now up only around [..]

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European Session – Pound steady as “no” vote gains in polls, dollar hurt by retail sales

Posted on September 12, 2014 at 1:28 pm GMT

Despite the lack of any economic data out the UK today, there was focus on the sterling, which held steady above the key 1.62 level against the dollar. The pound rallied off 10-month lows since Scottish referendum opinion polls yesterday and today showed a shift back in favour of a ‘No’ vote. This increased optimism in the British currency again as fears of a break up of the United Kingdom eased slightly. Meanwhile, markets will focus on key risk events [..]

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