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European Session – US dollar jumps after nonfarm payrolls beat forecasts

Posted on October 3, 2014 at 1:25 pm GMT

The US dollar was broadly stronger today as markets anticipated the US employment report. The news of the rebound in jobs in September caused the dollar to surge as it raised speculation that the Federal Reserve would push forward the timing of the first rate hike. The nonfarm payrolls number for last month was forecast at 215,000 but the US economy surprisingly created 248,000 new jobs instead. Also the August figure was revised up to 180,000 from 142,000. The strong [..]

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Forex News – Week ahead: Central Bank meetings, minutes, speakers to call the shots next week

Posted on October 3, 2014 at 10:23 am GMT

Next week will be relatively quiet in terms of data, after the release of key numbers in the past week such as US nonfarm payrolls and Eurozone inflation and unemployment.  However, central bank meetings in Japan, the UK and Australia as well as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting should shed some light on policymakers’ views.  At the end of next week, the annual IMF / World Bank meetings take place in Washington and the bringing together of so [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP downtrend takes a breather

Posted on October 3, 2014 at 7:08 am GMT

EURGBP is clearly in a bear trend as can be seen on the daily chart – there are lower peaks and lower troughs and the market is under the Ichimoku cloud. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are falling, also giving a bearish signal. RSI remains in bearish territory. After approaching close to oversold conditions it turned back up, thereby resulting in EURGBP bouncing off lows of 0.7766 to trade at 0.7840 on Friday. Immediate resistance stands at 0.7880 which is [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar regains strength ahead of crucial payrolls report

Posted on October 3, 2014 at 6:48 am GMT

The US dollar managed to regain some of the ground it lost during the previous sessions on optimism that the September US employment report will come in strong and show that the US economic recovery was on track.  Good economic data out of the United States supports the argument of dollar bulls that the Federal Reserve will need to hike interest rates in coming months in contrast to the stimulative policies of the central banks of the Eurozone and of [..]

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Forex News – ECB’s Draghi keeps rates but promises to add liquidity through ABS, TLTROs

Posted on October 2, 2014 at 1:59 pm GMT

The ECB meeting more or less met expectations today by keeping the key refinancing interest rate unchanged at 0.05% and by setting out the plan for asset purchases.  According to Draghi’s introductory statement to the press conference, covered bond purchases would start during the second half of October, while purchases of Asset Backed Securities will take place during the fourth quarter of 2014 – presumably after the beginning of the covered bond purchases.  The program will last for at least [..]

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European Session – All eyes on Draghi

Posted on October 2, 2014 at 1:31 pm GMT

All eyes were on the European Central Bank policy meeting today so market participants were cautious ahead of this key risk event. The euro was steady against the dollar ahead of the ECB announcement and started becoming volatile as ECB chief Mario Draghi began to speak during his press conference in Naples, Italy. The ECB left the interest rates at record lows, as was widely expected. The refi  rate was kept at 0.05% while the deposit rate was left at [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD pauses decline at 0.8700

Posted on October 2, 2014 at 7:04 am GMT

AUDUSD paused its decline at the key 0.8700 level after briefly breaking below it on Wednesday. The pair has since rebounded to trade up to 0.8820 on Thursday. The underlying market structure is bearish based on the technicals – the market is below the 200-day moving average and below the Ichimoku cloud. Also the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. MACD is bearish and so is RSI although it is oversold. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg [..]

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Asian session – US dollar gives back gains ahead of ECB meeting

Posted on October 2, 2014 at 6:35 am GMT

The US dollar retreated – falling the most in one day for the past 4 months as weak US data and a desire to take profits on an overstretched up-move made traders sell the greenback. The dollar had until recently been ignoring technical signals that it was overbought, as it continued its seemingly relentless upward march.  It was particularly overbought versus the Japanese yen and this caused profit-taking to bring it back to 108.70 after the pair briefly crossed above [..]

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European Session – Dollar drops on weak ISM manufacturing PMI

Posted on October 1, 2014 at 2:22 pm GMT

The US dollar bull trend remained dominant in the European session although there were limited movements as markets awaited US data on ISM manufacturing as well as the key risk events of the week – being the European Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow and the US nonfarm employment report on Friday. The dollar briefly broke above the key 110.00 yen level but the rally subsequently faded and the greenback dropped after disappointing US ISM manufacturing data which fell to 56.6% [..]

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Forex News – Weak Eurozone PMI data weaken euro ahead of ECB

Posted on October 1, 2014 at 9:51 am GMT

The euro dropped after data showed manufacturing growth in the Eurozone slowed further in September. The data come after Tuesday’s preliminary inflation slowed in September to just 0.3%. Weak data intensify pressure on the European Central Bank to take more easing measures. The ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday. While the consensus view is for no fresh action tomorrow, the euro is expected to remain under pressure after today’s weak data. A survey compiled by Markit in September showed [..]

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