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Technical Analysis – EURUSD finds support at 1.2500

Posted on October 8, 2014 at 7:09 am GMT

EURUSD has stalled its decline and has found strong support at 1.2500. Resistance stands at 1.2713. The pair has been consolidating between these two levels since the beginning of October. The underlying trend is bearish, as the market is below the daily Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. RSI is in bearish territory below 50 and has moved out of oversold conditions, suggesting the sell-off has been overdone for now and some consolidation is expected [..]

Asian Session – US dollar rebounds in volatile trading

Posted on October 8, 2014 at 6:36 am GMT

The US dollar managed to shore up some of the previous session’s losses as risk appetite diminished, treasury yields were lower and markets were expecting the release of the minutes from the September Federal Reserve meeting to get clues about future interest rate moves. The International Monetary Fund, in its flagship semi-annual World Economic Outlook publication, downgraded its global growth forecast for next year down to 3.8% from 4.0%. The International Monetary Fund also warned that equity markets were trading [..]

Forex News – FX majors quarterly review: US dollar shines during Q3

Posted on October 7, 2014 at 2:23 pm GMT

The third quarter had a single major theme for foreign exchange markets: US dollar strength. Following many months during which analysts were calling for outperformance of the US dollar – and getting it wrong – the dollar finally obliged and rallied strongly. After reaching a low in early May – which coincidentally marked the high for euro / dollar, the dollar index has rallied strongly. Strong economic data and a rebound from a very weak first quarter, during which one-off [..]

European Session – US dollar weakens across the board as Treasury yields fall

Posted on October 7, 2014 at 1:43 pm GMT

The euro retraced half of yesterday’s rally against the dollar, falling back to test the key 1.2600 level as weak German industrial data concerned investors that Europe’s engine of growth was stalling. This was the second day of weak German data and comes a day after factory orders fell more-than-expected. Today’s data show that German industrial production plunged by 4% in August, a 5‐year low. The euro’s losses were more significant against the yen, and fell to a 1-month low [..]

Asian Session – US dollar suffers profit-taking as long positions stretched

Posted on October 7, 2014 at 6:57 am GMT

The dollar managed to regain some ground in today’s trading, after the steepest daily drop of the dollar index in more than a year during the previous day. There was widespread profit-taking on the dollar during Monday’s trading and that continued to a certain extent during today’s Asian session. According to analysts, this was attributed to excessive speculative positions in favor of a dollar rise as well as profit taking by existing longs. Euro / dollar made a high of [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold tests key 1200 level

Posted on October 7, 2014 at 6:33 am GMT

Gold broke below the important 1200 level on Friday and prices are close to key support at 1180. The underlying downtrend is bearish. The market is below the 200-day moving average. Also highlighting the bearish structure is a bearish cross of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages below the 200-day moving average. Momentum indicators are bearish. A break below 1180 will accelerate losses to 1155 area of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from October 2008 low (681) [..]

European Session – Dollar eases after nonfarm payroll surge, euro pauses decline

Posted on October 6, 2014 at 2:04 pm GMT

Currency markets were mostly digesting last week’s slew of important data today and hence there was limited volume. The forecast-beating US jobs report and string of PMI data from across the world led to a lot of flows in currencies and particularly led to broad dollar strength. The greenback has been consolidating today after the nonfarm payrolls surge. Investors are taking a breather this week as the economic calendar is lighter but will focus on some central bank meetings – [..]

Forex News – September employment report powers US dollar to fresh multi-year highs

Posted on October 6, 2014 at 12:47 pm GMT

The much anticipated US employment report contained some very positive indications with respect to the US labor market and therefore the economy more widely. Non-farm payrolls climbed by 248 thousand compared to expectations of a 215 thousand rise while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.9%; its lowest since July of 2008. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to remain constant at 6.1%. The payrolls change was a welcome reversal of the previous month’s mediocre number of 142 thousand. August’s figure [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY bullish but RSI divergence warns of fading momentum

Posted on October 6, 2014 at 7:05 am GMT

The underlying market structure for USDJPY is bullish. The daily Ichimoku cloud is rising and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned. However the pair failed to have a daily close above the key 110 yen level after briefly breaching it last week. RSI remains in bullish territory above 50 but has been falling since late September, warning of fading upside momentum and suggesting prices are likely to consolidate in the near term under this strong resistance level at [..]

Asian Session – US dollar digests Friday’s gain in otherwise quiet session

Posted on October 6, 2014 at 6:57 am GMT

The US dollar hovered near multi-year highs versus a variety of currencies on Monday morning following optimism about the US economy after a stronger-than-expected US September employment report on Friday. Euro / dollar was trading near a 2-year low of 1.2501 it made on Friday, at 1.2518 with 1.25 becoming the new target in the sights of dollar bulls. The euro also received some negative news late in the session as German industrial orders dropped 5.7% month-on-month during August compared [..]

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