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Asian Session – US dollar trading cautiously ahead of Fed statement

Posted on October 29, 2014 at 7:42 am GMT

US dollar traders were cautious about pushing the currency higher ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement later today. The dollar was hurt yesterday by weaker-than-expected durable goods orders data for September, which cast a shadow on just how strong the US economy was and whether business investment would increase thereby creating the conditions for more sustainable economic growth. Consumer confidence on the other hand rose to a 7-year high, showing that consumers are benefitting from a strong labor market and [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD in neutral

Posted on October 29, 2014 at 7:04 am GMT

GBPUSD has paused its downtrend and has a neutral bias since trading within a range between 1.5873 and 1.6225 during the last 3 weeks. Prices are capped by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.6523 – 1.5873 downleg (September 19 high – October 15 low). This resistance level stands at 1.6197. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.6024 acts as immediate support while stronger support lies at 1.5873. A break below this would strengthen the bearish bias for another leg [..]

Forex News – US durable goods orders slip in September to 8-month low

Posted on October 28, 2014 at 3:01 pm GMT

US durable goods order recorded their biggest drop in eight months in September, worrying markets that the pace of economic growth in the world’s largest economy is unstable. Durable goods which include big-ticket items that last at least three years, (ranging from toasters to aircraft) , fell 1.3% in September despite forecasts for a 0.5% rebound. In August durable goods orders fell 18.3%. That was the largest decline in the so-called core capital goods since January of this year. A [..]

European Session – Dollar see-saws after mixed US data ahead of FOMC announcement

Posted on October 28, 2014 at 2:48 pm GMT

The dollar weakened after disappointing US durable goods data which fell more-than-expected in September, raising concern about the pace of economic growth in the US. This made investors edgy ahead of a key risk event tomorrow – the Federal Reserve monetary announcement. The dollar dipped to as low as 107.68 after the durable goods data after having traded as high as 108.16 earlier in the European session. Durable goods fell 1.3% in September despite forecasts for a 0.5% rebound. In [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY pauses rally to hover around 108.00

Posted on October 28, 2014 at 9:13 am GMT

USDJPY has had a bullish run after bouncing from the October 15 low of 105.19 and has scope for gains to 110.08, the October 1st high. The 6-day rally was sparked by the failure to close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 100.81 to 110.08. The underlying bullish structure is confirmed with the latest daily close above 107.62 which is the kijun-sen line and is acting as immediate support. A daily close back below support of [..]

Asian Session – Dollar heavy as markets look to FOMC

Posted on October 28, 2014 at 8:27 am GMT

Currency markets were relatively quiet as investors look ahead to the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, expecting clues to the direction of US interest rates. A few rounds of soft US economic data on Monday kept the dollar heavy as US bond yields fell. US pending home sales fell to the weakest since December 2012. The market reacted negatively to the data because it raised expectations that the Fed would look to stay dovish and keep rates lower for longer. This [..]

European Session – Dollar falls after weak US pending home sales data

Posted on October 27, 2014 at 3:19 pm GMT

It was a choppy day for the euro as markets digested the ECB bank stress test results, which led the euro above 1.2700. The euro failed to sustain these gains in the European session after disappointing German data caused a bout of selling which pushed the euro to 1.2664 . The German Ifo business climate index missed expectations and dropped to 103.2 in October from 104.7 in September. That’s the lowest since December 2012 and was below economists’ expectations for [..]

Forex News – ECB stress tests paint positive picture of Eurozone banks

Posted on October 27, 2014 at 11:19 am GMT

The main market news item over the weekend was the release of the stress test results conducted by the European Central Bank for 130 banks across Europe. The stress tests used data from the end of 2013 and since then a number of banks has moved to raise fresh capital in the markets. Although 25 out of the 130 failed the test or about 1 in 5, the size of the capital shortfall was ‘only’ 25 billion euros. As the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD consolidates near-term but overall bearish

Posted on October 27, 2014 at 8:19 am GMT

The long-term trend for EURUSD is a downtrend but in the short-term the pair remains neutral for the moment. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are flat as prices consolidate between key technical levels of 1.2600 and 1.2800. A move to the upside would be capped by resistance at 1.2850 –which is the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the May 8 to October 3 downleg. (1.3922 – 1.2500). A decisive break of support at 1.2600 would turn the bias back to the [..]

Asian Session – Euro recovers following lower-than-expected Eurozone bank capital needs

Posted on October 27, 2014 at 7:46 am GMT

The euro managed to recover to around the 1.27 area against the US dollar, following the release of the results of bank stress tests that showed Eurozone banks doing better than was feared. 25 out of 130 banks failed to pass the tests and the failing banks needed 25 billion euros in capital at the end of 2013. However since then, around half of the banks that failed have raised capital and the capital needs were now around 10 billion [..]

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