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Forex News – Big miss in Japanese Q3 GDP leads to fresh high in dollar / yen

Posted on November 17, 2014 at 1:46 pm GMT

The news that the Japanese GDP for the third quarter contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter instead of expanding by 0.5% as economists expected, was a huge negative surprise. Technically Japan is now in its third recession in 4 years, as the second and third quarters both posted negative growth rates. The second quarter’s growth rate was revised negatively from -1.8% to -1.9%. The second quarter was when the sales tax was raised. Granted the contraction of the 3rd quarter was mainly the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains 1.2500 handle but overall bearish

Posted on November 17, 2014 at 8:25 am GMT

EURUSD kept its recovery and remained above the key 1.2500 handle today. The pair extended higher to 1.2576 but was unable to sustain the rally. Support is seen at 1.2500 while resistance is at 1.2600. In the bigger picture, EURUSD is in a bearish trend. The market has formed lower lows and lower highs since May. The November 7 low of 1.2357 is seen as an important support level but a break below this would give the market scope to [..]

Asian Session – Yen crashes then rebounds following dismal GDP data

Posted on November 17, 2014 at 7:44 am GMT

Shockingly bad economic data out of Japan led to great volatility in yen crosses during today’s Asian session, while the dollar also gave up some ground as it struggles to maintain its positive momentum due to excessive positioning. 3rd quarter GDP data out of Japan missed expectations by a huge margin; coming in at a contraction of 0.4% against expectations of an expansion of 0.5%. Therefore, given the sharp contraction of the second quarter (-1.9% quarter-on-quarter downwardly revised), Japan has [..]

European Session – Yen rout continues amid upbeat Eurozone, US data

Posted on November 14, 2014 at 3:51 pm GMT

The yen was against the biggest loser today, with dollar / yen making a new high at 116.84 and euro / yen taking over the 145 mark, as the positive data from US and Europe contrasted with the continued need for additional stimulus for the Japanese economy. The key data release of the day was Eurozone third quarter GDP growth, which came in better than expectations at +0.2%. Economists were expecting a print of +0.1% and the previous quarter showed [..]

Forex News – Week ahead: Minutes from Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Eurozone flash PMIs should make for interesting week

Posted on November 14, 2014 at 2:47 pm GMT

Central bank policy meeting minutes from the US and the UK as well as PMI data out of the Eurozone will probably concentrate the minds of market participants, together with some inflation data again from the US and the UK. Amid all the economic data and events scheduled for the following week, political events out of Japan will probably prove a major focus of attention – as was the case this week. The reports that the sales tax hike is [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold at 4 ½ -year low; bearish tone continues

Posted on November 14, 2014 at 9:24 am GMT

On November 7, gold registered a 4 ½ -year low around the 1130 dollars per ounce level; its lowest since April of 2010. It has since rebounded to 1173 but only to come back down to 1152. Gold’s rapid decline from its 6-month high of 1345 in July was accompanied by broad strength in the US dollar – one of the key factors that determines the price of gold. Currently the RSI is bearish but not at oversold levels at [..]

Asian Session – Dollar / yen climbs to fresh 7-year highs on Japanese politics

Posted on November 14, 2014 at 8:48 am GMT

The US dollar climbed to a fresh high of 116.33 against the yen on newspaper reports that Japan’s Prime Minister would call a press conference next week to dissolve parliament, call early elections and postpone next year’s sales tax hike. The so-called rumor mill about Japanese political decisions continued on Friday, with negative effects on the yen and positive effects on Japanese stocks. Euro / yen also climbed to fresh 11-month high of 144.75 and eyed the 145.66 high of [..]

European Session – Yen, aussie rebound as Dudley keeps dollar bulls penned

Posted on November 13, 2014 at 3:18 pm GMT

Currency trading was relatively range-bound during Thursday’s European trading as there was also little in the way of major news to give a definite direction to the market. The yen managed to push the dollar back a bit to around 115.50 from 115.80 earlier in the day, as it seems traders are hesitant to try to take out the 7-year high at 116.10 without some help from a positive news development. The announcement of an early election in Japan – [..]

Technical Analysis – Nikkei 225, Daily: Japanese benchmark stock index at 7-year highs

Posted on November 13, 2014 at 9:17 am GMT

The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark stock index, has posted a very impressive rally of more than 20% since its mid-October low. Part of that rally reflected the rebound in global equity markets after a brief correction and part was mainly related to the additional stimulus the Bank of Japan decided to provide on October 31st. Today’s 17,455 level was last seen in October of 2007, the month when stock markets around the world peaked before the onset of the financial [..]

Asian Session – Yen struggles due to election reports; RBA official talks down aussie

Posted on November 13, 2014 at 7:50 am GMT

The yen was again under pressure during the Asian session, on reports that the Japanese Prime Minister will soon call snap elections. The argument goes that snap elections will lead to additional stimulative policies, although the concrete evidence for that is not so clear right now. It is also possible that the market is pretty much using excuses to sell the yen and drive it lower for now, given the massive addition to monetary stimulus that the Bank of Japan [..]

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