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Asian Session – Yen tumble continues ahead of elections; Fed minutes leave dollar little moved

Posted on November 20, 2014 at 7:57 am GMT

The yen continued its relentless slide, as dollar / yen took over 118 yen handle and euro / yen topped the 149 level; a respective 7-year and 6-year high.  It appears that traders are dumping their yen exposure before the elections, which Prime Minister Abe is expected to win.  Not even a better-than-expected Japanese trade balance for October was enough to convince traders to stop selling the yen.  Exports grew much faster-than-expected in October, probably helped by the weaker yen.  [..]

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European Session – Pound rallies on BoE minutes, yen under pressure

Posted on November 19, 2014 at 2:43 pm GMT

The pound was one of the biggest movers today after it rallied on the Bank of England minutes which appeared to be less-dovish-than-expected. Two members from the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)  – Martin Weale  and Ian McCafferty – voted in favour of raising the benchmark rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, contrary to the other seven MPC members who voted to hold rates. What markets saw in the minutes and reacted positively was a phrase that talked of the possibility [..]

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Forex News – BoJ holds stimulus as Japan’s PM dissolves parliament

Posted on November 19, 2014 at 1:07 pm GMT

On Wednesday the Bank of Japan released a monetary policy statement which showed the central bank’s massive stimulus program was kept unchanged as widely expected. The BoJ committed to continuing its massive stimulus measures by purchasing more government bonds in order to increase the monetary base at a pace of 80 trillion yen a year. These stimulus measures were renewed last month when the Bank surprised markets by announcing its decision to expand its quantitative easing program from 60-70 trillion [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bearish bias but oversold

Posted on November 19, 2014 at 8:08 am GMT

GBPUSD has been in a downtrend since July 15 when it hit a 6-year high of 1.7190. The pair has been making lower highs and lower lows since then.  The bearish market structure is being supported by the fact that prices are below the Ichimoku cloud and also the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. Daily momentum is negative but is approaching oversold levels. The stochastic is also in oversold territory therefore cautioning of possible consolidation in prices in [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar / yen to fresh 7-year highs after Abe’s decisions

Posted on November 19, 2014 at 7:29 am GMT

The dollar pushed higher against the yen, making new 7-year highs around 117.40 (the previous high was 117.06) on follow-through selling after the Japanese Prime Minister’s decision to delay the sales tax hike and call early elections.  In its decision today, the Bank of Japan decided to refrain from any additional easing, having already extended its monetary stimulus on October 31. For the Japanese currency and the whole affair with the early elections and the delayed tax hike, the old [..]

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European Session – Euro back above 1.25 on upbeat German ZEW

Posted on November 18, 2014 at 3:00 pm GMT

The euro was higher today, especially against the dollar and the yen. German investor confidence surprised markets and moved higher for a third straight month in November and hit the highest since December 2013. The German ZEW economic sentiment index jumped to 11.5 points this month from a negative 3.6 points in October. Forecasts were for a reading of only 0.5 points. Today’s data was enough to offset yesterday’s dovish remarks from ECB President Mario Draghi who mentioned that the [..]

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Forex News – UK inflation meets expectations; sterling mixed

Posted on November 18, 2014 at 1:35 pm GMT

UK inflation numbers were released today and they were in line with economists’ expectations of a rise of 1.3% year-on-year.  In actual fact, inflation slightly accelerated from the previous month’s 1.2% annual rate.  Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held constant at 1.5%. Although transportation costs fell, the drop was smaller than a year ago and this actually pushed inflation up.  The Office for National Statistics gave the reductions in motor fuel prices and air tickets as the main [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar stabilizes; yen waits for Abe

Posted on November 18, 2014 at 8:21 am GMT

 The dollar was a little lower versus the euro and stable against the yen, as there were rumors that the Japanese Prime Minister could call early elections and announce a postponement to the sales tax hike as early as today. Dollar / yen was trading around 116.64 and was relatively close to the 117.06 7-year high registered the previous day.  Many analysts are waiting for further deterioration in the yen, as not only will the tax hike in all probability [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY keeps positive momentum

Posted on November 18, 2014 at 8:19 am GMT

USDJPY has rallied strongly in November so far and has reached overbought levels as shown by the daily stochastic. However, the overall trend is bullish as prices have been making higher highs and higher lows since early 2012. Momentum on the daily is still positive as the RSI is in bullish territory. Also supporting the bullish market structure is that prices are above the Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned. There is scope for the [..]

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European Session – Euro comes under pressure on Draghi speech

Posted on November 17, 2014 at 2:44 pm GMT

European traders got off to a wary start to the week. The upward momentum in the euro/dollar and cable fizzled out as the US dollar stabilized. The unexpected contraction in Japanese third quarter GDP led the Nikkei to slide 3% and triggered a short-squeeze in the yen. Dollar/yen tumbled below 117 yen and through 116 before stabilizing in European trading to 116.25. The yen will likely remain under pressure on the prospect that the Bank of Japan will eventually expand [..]

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