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European Session – Dollar dominance prevails, euro hits new 2-year low

Posted on December 8, 2014 at 3:05 pm GMT

The US dollar was the dominant currency at the start of the new trading week, being supported by fundamentals from last week as there were few economic data releases today that drove markets. The focus remained on Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which helped the greenback surge to fresh 7-year highs against the yen, peaking at 121.84 yen in early Asian session trading before it pulled back throughout the day to retrace to 120.66. While the yen may have gained [..]

Forex News – Japan’s 3rd quarter GDP even worse than first thought – yen near lows

Posted on December 8, 2014 at 12:31 pm GMT

The revision to Japan’s preliminary third quarter GDP growth figures was even worse than the dismal initial figures. Analysts failed to predict the negative revisions, as they were misled by a business investment survey that showed an improvement. Instead, because of methodological and sample issues, investment data was actually revised downwards. The annualized growth rate was revised to -1.9% from an initial 1.6% contraction and the quarter-on-quarter contraction was slightly lower to -0.5% from -0.4%. Instead analysts were expecting the [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY continues to break new 7-year highs

Posted on December 8, 2014 at 8:02 am GMT

USDJPY hit a fresh 7-year high in early Asian session trading on Monday, peaking at 121.84. The retracement low was 121.24 and support lies at the key 120.00 yen level. The market is however overbought as indicated by the stochastic being in extreme territory above 80 and RSI being above 70. These warn of possible consolidation in the near term but the market remains bullish above 120.00. Overall the long-term outlook for dollar/yen is bullish with scope to target 124.12, [..]

Asian Session – Dollar / yen scales fresh highs as aussie drops on weak Chinese data

Posted on December 8, 2014 at 7:46 am GMT

The dollar continued to be strong versus other major currencies on the aftermath of the much stronger-than-expected US employment report for November released on Friday. Dollar / yen made a fresh 7-year high at 121.84 near the open of Asian business today, before backing down to 121.41. Strong economic data out of the United States continued to contrast with weak data in economies such as the Eurozone and Japan and this was also reflected in the rise of US Treasury [..]

European Session – Dollar rockets above 121 yen on strong nonfarm payrolls

Posted on December 5, 2014 at 2:54 pm GMT

Currency markets were mostly quiet in the build-up to the US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, especially in the absence of European data. The dollar was broadly stronger ahead of the jobs report as forecasts were for the numbers to rise higher in November by at least 230,000. The US labour market kept its upward momentum last month and as a result jobs beat estimates by far and reached a figure of 321,000. This was the biggest job gain since [..]

Forex News – Week ahead: Chinese data, US retail sales and TLTRO feature

Posted on December 5, 2014 at 2:01 pm GMT

The week will start off with final Japanese 3rd quarter growth and given the giant miss against expectations that the preliminary figure featured, any revisions from the -0.4% contraction will be closely watched. Current account numbers for October will also be released on Monday as well as trade balance figures. Japan will enter the final week before elections on December 14, which are expected to renew Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s mandate for his stimulus program. Chinese data will feature heavily [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD pauses decline, bearish bias holds

Posted on December 5, 2014 at 8:21 am GMT

EURUSD bounced off 2-year lows on Thursday to rally to a high of 1.2455, stopping just short of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.2040 to 1.3992. In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate just below 1.2380. Any bounce higher would find resistance at yesterday’s high at 1.2455. The overall trend is bearish as can be seen on the daily chart – the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen are negatively aligned and the market is below the [..]

Asian Session – Euro maintains post-Draghi bid ahead of US employment report

Posted on December 5, 2014 at 7:44 am GMT

The euro kept off its lows versus the dollar and was trying to take over the 149 level against the yen, after ECB chief Mario Draghi dampened hopes that additional QE measures from the Eurozone central bank would take place as soon as January. Draghi appeared willing to do more but action would probably be a little slower than what euro bears hoped for. Still, the Eurozone’s economic situation remains difficult, as ECB staff cut both their growth and inflation [..]

European Session – Euro rises as ECB’s Draghi refrains from announcing QE

Posted on December 4, 2014 at 3:10 pm GMT

The European Central Bank policy meeting was the highlight of the day. As widely expected the Bank kept its main refinancing rate at 0.05%, while leaving the bank overnight deposit rate at minus 0.2%. What markets were more interested in watching was ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference following the policy meeting. The market was expecting Draghi to indicate that he will announce more quantitative easing (QE) in early 2015 but according to his remarks, the ECB may not embark [..]

Forex News – Draghi postpones QE decision for early 2015

Posted on December 4, 2014 at 3:06 pm GMT

Mario Draghi disappointed expectations on delivering hints of future QE by keeping the ECB’s options open on whether to embark on additional stimulus programs and saying that such a decision would be taken in 2015. Overall there was little news for the market to trade on as the ECB would wait until “early 2015” in order to reassess the situation and possibly decide on any fresh measures. There were technical committees working on such possible measures of “unconventional nature”. The [..]

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